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(CNN) –– US President Donald Trump has yet to formally grant the 2020 presidential race, but already plans to run again in 2024.
Both Axios and The Washington Post recently reported that Trump has mentioned to his relatives the plans he has to launch again in 2024. In addition, the decision he made this Wednesday to publicly endorse Ronna McDaniel for another term as chair of the Republican National Committee send a clear message. Precisely, that the future former president has no plans to renounce his control over the Republican Party, solely because he lost the 2020 elections.
And here is the scariest thing for his would-be Republican rivals with an eye toward 2024. It’s very hard to imagine anyone could prevent Trump from being the party’s nominee in four years if they so choose.
Why? Because Trump is not just the dominant figure in the party (and among the party rank and file) right now. He is also the only face of the Republican Party. The result is precisely a four-year campaign designed to eradicate all dissenting voices within the community, while turning the remaining members into willing supplicants. What that campaign has forged is a devastated Republican landscape where Trump is effectively like the Eye of Sauron. That is, a totally domineering and terror-inducing presence for everyone he looks at.
Consider what we know about the candidates for 2024.
Vice President Mike Pence, Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton, Missouri Senator Josh Hawley and former United States Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley will likely back down if Trump indicates he wants the nomination again. Precisely because they know that they are not likely to defeat him and do not want to destroy his future opportunities by trying.
Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Florida Senator Marco Rubio could run even if Trump was running, but we’ve already seen this movie. Trump beat them both hard in 2016. And that was before he was elected president.
Maryland Governor Larry Hogan and Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse? Both could run as anti-Trump candidates, whether the president is actually in the race or not. But while they might have a slim chance of winning the nomination without Trump in the offing, they wouldn’t stand a chance if he launched.
Trump has transformed the base of the Republican Party in the last five years. It used to be a group of people generally connected by similar views on economic and social policy (lower taxes, smaller government, protection of the unborn, appointment of conservative judges). Now it is what is best understood as a cult of personality that revolves around him.
Everything Trump says, the base takes it as true. Anyone who is to the liking of the president, also to be theirs. Who he attacks, they attack. It’s on the edge of Pavlovian. And it is further highlighted by the fact that Trump’s views on many issues – government size, debt and deficit, trade – are anathema to where the party’s base (and its elected leadership) was just a decade ago.
The numbers are staggering. In the latest Gallup pre-election poll, 94% of Republicans tested how Trump did his job. Among “conservative Republicans,” who comprise the majority of the rank and file, approval for the job was 97%. Yes, 97%!
Will Trump lose some of his luster once he’s out of the White House and not top of mind every minute? Of course. Something. But Trump has no plans to fully relinquish the spotlight that illuminates him. It is already rumored that he is considering starting a television network to challenge Fox News’ dominance in the conservative mindset. He has created a political action committee that will allow him to raise money and distribute dollars to candidates who run in his image. And then there’s his Twitter account, along with his 88.9 million followers, where Trump will no doubt continue to throw the bait that has made the party base so loyal to him.
Now whether Trump will actually launch again in 2024 is a harder question to answer. He will be 78 years old in 2024. And who knows if the various legal tangles he will face once he leaves the White House will trip him up or change his plans.
But what is clear is that unless the Republican base undergoes a drastic rethinking of their views on Trump, the next Republican presidential nomination is theirs.
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