Why are the rates of contagion of the coronavirus so high in Cali?



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Three men, aged 33, 60 and 66, who suffered from obesity, diabetes and high blood pressure, respectively, were reported as deceased, this Wednesday, by Covid-19 in the Valle del Cauca capital, which already has 33 cases.

According to the latest report from the Ministry of Health, there were also 20 new cases of infection in the city. Thus there are 565 positive people for coronavirus in Cali.

Of the 33 victims that the virus has caused death in Cali, 85% had chronic diseases such as diabetes, obesity and hypertension (the most frequent) and therefore, the state of health was complicated by becoming infected with coronavirus. The other 15% had no comorbidity.

Thus the figures, the case fatality for Covid-19 in Cali, that is, the number of deaths from the virus with respect to the total number of positive cases, is above the national average. Likewise, according to the Cali Como Vamos observatory, the city has the highest contagion rate in the country: 22 out of a hundred thousand inhabitants have tested positive.

In second place is Bogotá, with a rate of 20.7 infected per 100,000 and then Cartagena with 18.7 per 100,000.

Read also: ‘They evaluate the implementation of the dry law and curfew in Cali in the midst of quarantine due to coronavirus.’

According to Miyerlandi Torres, secretary of Municipal Public Health, the National Institute of Health reported that “Cali has the highest lethality at the national level according to the number of samples taken, we are making an exhaustive analysis of each of the clinical records of the deceased mating with those in intensive care and hospitalized trying to determine what delays we have in the city. We have met with infectious diseases specialists, intensivists, EPS, IPS trying to identify these causes ”, he assured.

Precisely, until April 21, Cali had a case fatality of 5.8%, which means that for every 100 patients who have been diagnosed positive for Covid-19, 6 are dying. “Colombia until this Tuesday was managing a rate of lethality of 4.7%, that is, that Cali is above the national average, but we are below the Bogotá average, which continues to be the city with the highest number of confirmed and deceased cases of coronavirus, ”said Rodolfo Herrera. Medina, statistician with a master’s degree in epidemiology.

72% of those killed by coronavirus in the city are people over 60 years of age. “21% of the cases confirmed by Covid-19 are between 30 to 39 years old, 18% are between 40 to 49 years old and those over 60 years represent 23% of the total of infected or suffering from the disease. So, less than a quarter of the sick (23%) are over 60 years old, while almost three quarters of the deceased (72%) are over 60 years old, ”said the professional Herrera, who is also a teacher of the Free University.

Meanwhile, Lena Barrera, a specialist in Internal Medicine with a master’s degree in epidemiology, explained that of the positive cases with Covid-19, “more or less 20% have a chronic disease, of those who reach the hospital, 70% have comorbidities, and under these conditions the disease is more at risk of complicating itself.

Also read: ‘”We do not want Cali to become another Guayaquil”: Jorge Iván Ospina’.

Likewise, the also a professor at the Universidad del Valle, revealed that some of the patients who died from Covid-19 in Cali, had consulted health institutions several times, but the disease was not suspected or was left for outpatient observation and when They returned had complications, with a severe or advanced state of the disease.

For this reason, it calls for patients with chronic diseases not to be managed on an outpatient basis, but rather to be observed in an institutionalized way.

“The first time they see him at the health site and comorbidities are identified, even if the patient is apparently in a stable condition, requires monitoring or institutionalized observation, it cannot be that they go home, there is no need to to think that it is a mild disease even if it appears clinically, ”he emphasized.

Why are the percentages high in Cali?

The number of positive cases of Covid-19 and of people who died in the city, according to the specialist Herrera, is due to the population structure, “we have an older population structure than the rest of Colombia on average, and it is known that one of the main factors for Covid-19 death is for those over 65 with comorbidities. ”

Also because it is the capital of the Valley, a large part of chronic patients is concentrated because they have care centers, which implies that the number of people with these comorbidities, proportionally with other intermediate cities, will increase due to this concentration of chronic patients.

Infections within families

In the last four days (from April 19 to 22) 88 new cases have been reported in Cali. Last Sunday 10 cases were registered, on Monday 37, on Tuesday 21 and yesterday 20 infected, figures according to the Municipal Health Secretariat.

Against this background, Miyerlandi Torres said that “a sick person should infect a little less than another and what is happening in this city is that each person who is becoming infected is contaminating almost two people, with this rate being very difficult to comply with what is established, “said Torres.

Meanwhile, Dr. Lena Barrera, Master of Epidemiology, commented that in Cali people are spreading within families because they are not doing the proper isolation.
“We have observed secondary transmission within families and groups, starting with the primary cases because control measures are not being carried out, we need to reinforce transmission measures within homes,” he said.

This is why the official Torres, emphasized: “for life itself it is essential to respect the obligatory isolation for the whole family, maximizing the departure of some of its members, to minimize the contagion that can be lethal.”

On the other hand, the statistician with a master’s degree in epidemiology, Rodolfo Herrera Medina, said: “We should not be scared by the current number of cases in Cali because that figure is still low for what we expect and with the speed that the disease is growing. At the moment we are on an ascent, but we are missing, we have not truly taken the ascent curve, the containment measures make it happen to us in a few cases, while we prepare ourselves because we do not want mass patients to come to the ICUs ”.



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