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Although all electoral groups weigh in in the US elections, there are some that tend to be more influential than others when it comes to counting the votes. Barack Obama, for example, won the 2008 and 2012 elections with a coalition made up of minorities, women, and young people. And Donald Trump, in 2016, was imposed by the endorsement of men, the white vote and people without higher education.
In this 2020 there are five segments that experts have identified as the calls to define the contest on November 3 between President Trump – who was yesterday at a rally in Arizona – and the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, who announced that he will campaign for the first time in these elections with Obama, in the state of Michigan this Saturday.
Here we tell you what are these groups and why they will be key.
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The white vote
As diverse as America is, when it comes time to vote, the white vote is still by far the most important. In the last elections, for example, they represented 74 percent of the electoral part although they make up only 60 percent of the country. Any change in the trend of these voters is critical in determining the winner. In 2016, Trump took that vote by 15 points ahead of Hillary Clinton (54 vs. 39). And if the former Secretary of State ended up being competitive – she won the popular vote – it was because she compensated with minorities, where she prevailed by more than 50 points (75 vs. 25 approximately).
Voters cast their votes in early voting in Durham, North Carolina.
This time things are not looking so good for the president. Although he is still the favorite, the difference at the moment with Biden is six points or less, half of what he took from Hillary four years ago (50 vs. 45, according to the average of polls). And that is huge.
It is estimated that in 2016 almost 100 million votes were cast by whites. In other words, Trump won 15 million more votes than Hillary. Half or less means that the president could lose between 7 and 8 million votes this time. If the figures are maintained and he does not make up that deficit with other segments of the electorate, his chances of winning re-election would be seriously affected.
Women
One of the biggest disappointments for Hillary Clinton in 2016 came from the vote of women. Although she was supported by about 52 percent of them, according to the Pew Research Center, and only 40% supported Trump, it was a low number considering that it was the first time that a woman had run for the presidency. Y given the allegations of sexual harassment and misogyny that weighed against the Republican. A number that was offset by Trump’s favoritism among men (41 vs. 52) and that alone could cost him the election.
But many things have happened since then, among them the explosion of the #MeToo movement from 2017 and the weight of the president in the White House.
Some of this was seen in the 2018 elections, when a record number of women won congressional seats (117), the majority representing the Democratic Party. That trend would be maintaining for these elections. According to the polls, Joe Biden would be surpassing Clinton in the preferences (between 52 and 54 percent) of support and taking Trump more than 15 points ahead. If you consider that women are the majority in the country (almost 51 percent) and that they generally represent 55 percent of the electoral part (they vote more than men), their vote could be a sentence for Trump.
Donald Trump and Hilarry Clinton during the 2016 elections.
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The latinos
Hispanics, with their 60 million residents, are the largest minority in the US (18 percent). And although they are not the most judicious when voting – less than 50 percent do – they have been and will be key in these presidential elections. Especially because of its geographical location, since many live in states such as Florida, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina, all among the group of swing states (oscillating states), whose endorsement by one or the other candidate will define the name of the occupant. of the White House.
In 2016, 66 percent voted for Clinton and 28 percent for Trump (38 points). A low figure for a Republican candidate, but understandable given the president’s anti-immigrant rhetoric. But polls for 2020 indicate that he would fare slightly better with Latinos. In most polls the difference is closer to 27 points (62 vs. 35). It is also estimated that many more Latinos will vote this year than did in 2016 (55 percent, according to the Pew Center).
If those numbers hold up, it could be dire for Biden’s aspirations in those states.. Trump’s recovery with Hispanics would put him on a level similar to that of other Republican candidates of the past, such as George W. Bush, who won 35 percent of this vote and was able to win the 2000 and 2004 elections.
In Florida, Latino voters have voiced their support for Joe Biden.
People over 65
It is one of the most important groups, as they are one of the most disciplined when it comes to voting and it also has a great weight in undecided stateslike Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania, where large retirement communities live.
In 2016, Trump won this group by a nine-point difference (53 vs. 44 percent). But this year’s samples indicate that it would be losing it. and by enough. On average, Biden is about 10 points behind him (54 vs. 44). In large part that is due to the handling he has given Trump on the issue of the coronavirus, whose mortality is very high in this segment of the population. Of the 222,000 victims who go, more than two-thirds (about 165,000 people) were over 65 years of age.
In this 2020 there are five segments that experts have identified as the calls to define the contest on November 3 between President Trump and the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden
The independents
Although almost one in four voters in the US (25 percent) say they are independent and do not belong to either party, in practice a large majority of them already tend to prefer Republicans or Democrats. Hence, only 8 percent of the electorate, according to a Pew Center report, can be classified as truly independent.
A number that has been falling in recent years given the levels of polarization that exist in the country. But that 8 percent is equivalent to more than 10 million votes and any change in trends is usually important in the outcome of elections that have been defined by very small margins. Trump, in 2016, won the elections by about 200,000 votes that gave him victory in 3 states of the country (Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania).
In those elections, the Republican candidate won the vote of the independents by a single point of difference. For this 2020 polls say that Biden is leading by 7 points.
That forecast is not good for Trump, especially since, according to the same polls, 85 percent of them would have already opted for one of the two candidates, while in 2016 only 62 percent arrived on election day with that decision made. That is, the percentage of independents that would still be at stake is much smaller this time.
(You may be interested in: ‘Bipartisan support for Colombia is at risk’: Dan Restrepo)
SERGIO GÓMEZ MASERI
EL TIEMPO correspondent
WASHINGTON
