There is a 40% probability that there will be a new hurricane in the Caribbean

This is stated in a bulletin issued by the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (Ideam). The statement affirms that the consolidation of a low pressure in the Colombian Caribbean Sea is expected in the coming days, associated with the entry of a new tropical wave.

Given these circumstances, a strong “tropical depression” could develop, that is, phase one of a cyclone.

However, says the entity, at the moment there is a low probability that there will be a hurricane during the next 48 hours.

However, for the next five days the possibility of a hurricane forming increases to 40 percent.

According to the bulletin, this will generate “the possibility of copious rains accompanied by electrical storms and gusts of wind. Similarly, an increase in wave height is possible in different sectors of the national Caribbean Sea. Heavy rainfall may favor events such as sudden increases and / or landslides in hillside areas, ”says the entity’s report.

In this sense, Christian Euscátegui, director of the master’s degree in Risk Management and Development at the School of Military Engineers and an expert in meteorology, told the newspaper El Tiempo that “it is a very particular situation.”

The expert added that “while hurricane Iota was advancing, a probability of 20 percent was showing within the entire system of this new tropical wave, as well behind Iota. Now, that probability increased to 40 percent, ”he explained.

According to data from the National Hurricane Center, the new system would be formed north of the Gulf of Urabá and will depend on the gain it reaches in terms of humidity and cloudiness, which will allow us to infer whether it can leave heavy rains in the center and the south-west of the Caribbean coast.

“It is not yet possible to know which direction it would take. However, if it goes north, it would affect the Archipelago of San Andrés and Providencia again ”, added Euscátegui.

In this sense, the 40 percent probability is in force for the next five days, that is, from November 16 to 21. “It can take between 72 or 96 hours, that is, between three days and four days, a new system could be starting up. We will have to wait for how it evolves ”, says the meteorological expert.

However, as the expert says, we must be aware, because like the lota itself, in meteorology surprises can occur “it was noted that (lota) had a probability of occurring in five days, but it turned out that the projection changed: it was said that it would arrive in 48 hours, but the next day it was formed. That is why the importance of being attentive to how it can evolve ”, added Euscátegui.

However, it is necessary to wait for the formation of the hurricane to be able to be certain of where it is going and how intense it could be.

Finally, the meteorologist said that this season has been particularly loaded with hurricanes, the first time was in 2005 and now in 2020. “This time we have had the season with the highest cyclonic activity, 31 cyclones until today.”

Although the season runs from July to late November, it is likely to continue through late December, the expert said.

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