The danger of “anything goes” in Venezuela

According to Venezuelan journalists and analysts, the failed invasion of the Venezuelan coast was expected by 17 retired military groups that today are betting on changing the government “in any way.” The dangers for Colombia.

The situation is complex and confusing in Venezuela: on May 3, fifty ex-Venezuelan opposition military personnel and several employees of Silvercorp, a US security services company, launched a clumsy and crude invasion operation off the coast of Venezuela, which ended with the death of eight people, the arrest of dozens of opponents and two Americans, the resignation of political strategist Juan José Rendón and new doubts about the leadership of Juan Guaidó, the opposition’s bid to remove Nicolás Maduro from power.

The failed operation, clumsily executed by the former US military Justin Goudreau, also uncovered a military rebellion against Nicolás Maduro that has been brewing since 2018.

It may interest you: Did Juan Guaidó meet Justin Goudreau at the White House? That says Maduro

“In effect, retired military personnel from the Bolivarian National Guard, the Army and the Police were the ones who tried to enter through Macuto and other coastal areas of the country; the plan was to join other groups within Venezuela and thus promote a military rebellion, ”explains Sebastiana Barráez, a Venezuelan journalist who is an expert in military affairs. But Chavismo, which managed to reverse a coup d’état (2002) against Hugo Chávez, detected the plan and contained it.

Chavismo makes the noise of sabers sound, and sometimes encourages it, to detect enemies and that is what it did this time: within a few hours of the failed raid, 56 soldiers had already been detained in Puerto Cruz, Colonia Tovar and other regions of the country. “I understand that there are 17 groups, each made up of ten people, who joined those cells of uniformed dissidents. Those who have not been captured do not know if they are in Venezuelan territory or in Colombia, ”adds Barráez.

Attempts at military insurrection in Venezuela have been frequent for two years, and 2018 marked a historical record of failed uprisings and arrests of uniformed personnel, with 163 cases; There are currently 152 former military personnel behind bars accused of rebellion and treason, according to the Coalition for Human Rights and Democracy. Barráez relates that the most recent case occurred just a week ago in the Puerta Morocha military unit, one of the access roads to Caracas, where the commander and several captains were detained.

See more: Who is Maduro accusing for a failed operation in Venezuela?

“The year in which the most military events occurred was 2018; the first case was a movement of disobedience of several first lieutenants of the 2012 promotion of the National Guard; in March, several Army lieutenant colonels and the head of the Ayala Battalion – the most important of Fort Tiuna – were also arrested; in May, several commandos of the Navy and the Bolivarian National Guard were arrested under the presumption of a military insurrection; Drones continued, an event in which several members of the National Guard ended up behind bars. In January 2019, things continued: there was an attempt to revolt by GNB sergeants in the Cotiza sector; In April, the most important breakdown occurred, which was the so-called Operation Freedom, when even the head of the political police (Sebin), Cristopher Figuera, rebelled, but fled and the military operation was broken up, ”says journalist Barráez.

The failed Operation Gideon is the latest attempt in a series of moves, which generally end up being disarmed by Chavismo and Cuban intelligence, explains a former Venezuelan military man currently in Colombia. And it is that Maduro has never had a good relationship with the Armed Forces, which did not finish accepting it; “However, the turning point occurred in 2014 and 2017 with the violation of human rights and the abuses during the opposition marches. The installation of the National Constituent Assembly also caused a definitive breaking point with part of the military institution, “explains the military man.

See more: Guaidó says the commission that paid for the attack should only evaluate scenarios

The actions of Colombia

The only thing that the most recent events indicate is that Chavismo seems to be winning the battle (again), due to the constant errors of the opposition. “Operation Gideon is agreeing with Chavismo, which has always accused the opposition of being undemocratic and coup-mongering and of promoting exits outside constitutional frameworks,” explains Ronal Rodríguez, coordinator of the Observatory for Venezuela of the Universidad del Rosario.

José Colina agrees, an ex-military man who presides over Venezuelans Persecuted Politicians in Exile (Veppex), who pointed out to EFE that the military incursion “did enormous damage to Juan Guaidó”. The most serious thing, in the voice of Venezuelan journalists and Colombian analysts, is that it left a worrying situation on the table: the commitment of many Venezuelans to “anything goes” to remove Maduro from power.

“Something dangerous for the Colombian State, which must be very careful with these events and must make it clear that you cannot leave Maduro in any way, as military action would generate an anarchy situation; the Bolivarian Revolution has always threatened to set the country on fire and has demonstrated its ability to contain these scenes of rebellion; Colombia should call for restraint and sanity. “

Especially in times of coronavirus: experts warn that the peak of the pandemic will soon reach Venezuela and will be very strong (despite the scarce official information); with an aggravating factor: there is no government, but also no opposition to handle the crisis.