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Four days before the elections, almost 90 million people have already cast their votes, beating all previous records for early suffrage.. Experts predict, in fact, that if the pace is maintained between now and Tuesday night, the total numbers could add up to 155 million votes, 20 million more than in 2016 and the highest figure in history.
Likewise, there is talk of a participation percentage higher than 60 percent, which would also be a new milestone in American democracy.
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The interest, of course, has been marked by the deep polarization that exists in a country where the victory of Donald Trump or Joe Biden is seen as a matter of life and death for their supporters.
The partial numbers indicate that so far more Democrats than Republicans have voted (46 percent vs. 35 percent). But that gap has narrowed with each passing day, and many more Republicans are expected to vote on Election Day.
Therefore both the national and state polls continue to point to a Biden victory.
This is Joe Biden’s campaign.
Cristóbal Herrera. EFE
But in the last few polls have emerged showing a tighter outlook for the former vice president. Especially in Pennsylvania, one of the so-called “undecided” states that is seen on this occasion as key to the aspirations of both.
While Biden had held a 5-point or more advantage until a few days ago, the latest polls already speak of four points or less, which is within the margin of error.
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This state was one of three (along with Wisconsin and Michigan) that turned their backs on the Democrats in 2016 after decades of support and could seal their fate again next Tuesday.
That is why both candidates are dedicating these last days of the campaign to those three states. Trump visited Pennsylvania twice this week while Biden will visit this Saturday.
Since many of Biden’s supporters have already voted early, we have been able to direct our resources to try to reach directly those who support him but don’t usually vote.
Of course with very different speeches. The president insisting that the Democrats will end the hydrocarbon industry and “fracking”, which still generates a lot of employment in the state (Biden denies it), and his rival highlighting the failure of Trump in handling the pandemic, which has claimed nearly 230,000 lives and seems out of control.
The other axis in these last days of the campaign have been Latinos, especially in Florida, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. Four other states that will be in play and that both need. Especially Trump in case he can’t replicate the surprise he gave in the first three four years.
Both coincided this Thursday in the Sunshine State and while the vice presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Mike Pence, concentrated their efforts in Carolina, Arizona and Nevada where the polls favor Biden but also within the margin of error.
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Biden’s campaign has, in fact, begun to broaden its map of potential wins and is devoting time and resources to uncompetitive states like Texas, Georgia, Ohio and Iowa, where polls have tightened. Y Although it is unlikely that he will win them, nobody rules out that he will surprise one of them and that will end the presidential aspirations of the president.
Furthermore, it is a strategic move as it has forced Trump to spend time and resources defending him rather than focusing solely on those who are really at stake.
His campaign is also putting a lot of energy into promoting the participation of the base of the party that did not vote en masse in 2016 as it did in 2012 and in 2008 for Barack Obama.
“Since many of Biden’s supporters have already voted early, we have been able to direct our resources to try to directly reach those who support him but do not usually vote. That’s where the potential for growth is, “says Becca Siegel, the head of the analytics unit on the former vice president’s campaign.
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While Trump spent the week insisting that COVID-19 is already defeated and that its impact has been oversized by Democrats, This Friday he took a surprising turn when he said during an event that it was necessary to “maintain social distancing” and “wear masks in case you cannot do so.”
Donald Trump campaigning in the United States.
Something that experts have been saying for months but that Trump had ignored. In fact in that same event, very few had masks and were positioned shoulder to shoulder.
The president’s change of tone may be explained by the impressive advance of the coronavirus throughout the country, and particularly in the undecided states that he must win where a majority cuts him off due to the handling of the crisis.
But just 72 hours before the elections, few believe that the turnaround could have results after months of rowing in the opposite direction.
SERGIO GÓMEZ MASERI
EL TIEMPO correspondent
Washington
