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The first trading week of the minimum wage by 2021, in the Commission for the Agreement on Labor and Wage Policies, it closed with two indicators on the table: productivity, -0.6 percent, and inflation for 2020, which the technical team of Banco de la República projects at 1 , 9 percent.
(In context: Ghost of the crisis will mark the negotiation of the minimum wage)
Analysts consider that the economic situation does not leave room for increases much higher than inflation –which in November stood at –0.15 percent and put more pressure on the discussion–, but it does allow the Commission to focus on other issues as well.
“Probably, given the circumstances, the minimum salary it will rise little, “he says. Jaime Tenjo, expert in labor matters, but it highlights the fact that between workers and businessmen “a certain agreement is heard regarding the need for the Government to generate active policies for job creation, such as subsidies for SMEs and accelerating infrastructure works.”
(Also: ‘In the Commission we are not going to discuss only a percentage ‘: Mintrabajo)
Juan Carlos Guataquí, consultant on labor issues, also considers that this year will weigh the fact that the negotiation occurs in a crisis scenario. “Most likely, there is no agreement on the increase, because criteria such as the low inflation and negative productivity – a long-standing problem, which always gives rise to discussions – are not favorable for an increase; Furthermore, the government has no interest in promoting an agreement, because it can set the minimum unilaterally, ”he says.
The researcher is critical of the role of the Commission, “it no longer reflects the reality of the working market, It makes decisions that affect only 55 percent of the workers, who are salaried, and ignore the other 45 percent, who are self-employed and, for the most part, informal. there is no government aid for them either. “
In that order of ideas, Stefano Farné, director of the Labor Observatory of the Externado de Colombia University, He believes that the increase will depend, more than on inflation and productivity, on the negotiating capacity of the parties. He points out that it is clear that the increase cannot be less than inflation; Regarding negative productivity, he considers that it should not be taken into account: “This year – he says – the reduction in working hours influenced his negative behavior; the lockdowns prevented people from going to work or led to the loss of their jobs. In other words: what happened does not mean that people are less productive ”.
Finally, he indicated that the unions, which given the current situation do not have greater bargaining power this time, could improve the perception of their role if they accept, for example, an increase very adjusted to the inflation, in exchange for commitments, in the commission, around the generation of aid and support for informal workers.
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