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A study by Imperial College London that analyzed the prevalence of antibodies in 365,104 adults in England between the past months of June and September found that the level of protection against the coronavirus among those who had covid-19 declined “very rapidly”, since the immunity provided by the antibodies could last only “a few months”.
In general, it was found that the level of immunity fell 26.5 percent during that period. However, the authors clarified that these findings are available in a preliminary report that will be submitted for peer review and publication in a scientific journal.
This work estimated that only 4.4% of the more than 360,000 analyzed had some degree of immunity to covid-19 in September. That figure was 6% between June 20 and July 13, and 4.8% between July 31 and August 31, suggesting that immunity was “waning fairly rapidly” and the risk of reinfection was increasing.
The study also showed that “people who did not have symptoms of COVID-19 are likely to lose their detectable antibodies faster than those who did show symptoms.”
(Read this special: Covid-19 and life in tow after going through an ICU)
The proportion of antibodies in people who tested positive for the virus decreased by 22.3 percent over three months, while among people who did not feel symptoms of covid-19 they fell by 64 percent.
The study emphasizes that, although all ages are affected by this decrease, the elderly suffer more: between June and September, the portion of people older than 75 years with antibodies decreased by 39%, while it was reduced by 14.9% in the age group between 18 and 24 years old.
“The main conclusion is that after the first wave (of coronavirus), there was still no evidence that the vast majority of the country’s population had protective immunity,” one of the study’s authors, Graham Cooke, explained in a statement.
That means that, although “we are observing a decrease in the proportion of people who test positive,” there is a “vast majority” of individuals who “probably have not yet been exposed” to covid-19, the expert pointed out.
“Consequently, the need for a vaccine is even greater if we want to create a high level of protection in the population,” Cooke added.
(See: 30,000 deaths from covid-19 in Colombia: X-ray of a tragedy)
Likewise, the Imperial College research found that there were no significant changes in the immunity level of health workers between June and September, which could be due to the fact that in those contexts there is “continuous transmission” or “repeated exposure”observed Helen Ward, another of the authors of the work.
Regarding the so-called “herd immunity”, the expert warned that “we are still very, very far” from reaching a situation in which “the population will be protected by other people.” “Even in the best case scenario – in the first round of testing in this study – 94% of the population had no protection and now 95% have no evidence that they have antibodies,” Ward said.
“Our study shows that, over time, there is a reduction in the number of people who test positive for antibodies. It is not clear what degree of immunity the antibodies provide or how long this immunity lastsCooke continued.
(You may be interested: Pandemic has emotionally hit 6 out of 10 Colombians)
Therefore, he recommended those with antibodies to continue to comply with the “recommendations”, which include measures of “social distancing” and the “use of masks where necessary.”
In any case, virologist Wendy Barclay, from Imperial College London, explained that “this new coronavirus appears to behave in a very similar way to seasonal coronaviruses that have existed in humans for decades, some for hundreds of thousands of years.” You can “get reinfected every one or two years” with these seasonal coronaviruses due to a drop in immunity, he explained.
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