[ad_1]
As happened in all the countries of the world, Colombia suffered a forceful impact on its economy due to the coronavirus pandemic. The year is close to ending and negative statistics were recurrent since April around the behavior of the different national activities.
The quarantine that the country entered since March to contain the spread of COVID-19 made the national economy show losses never seen before, and the lifting of the confinement measures seeking the gradual reopening in different sectors does not end up producing a change as positive as that needed by all actors of local finance.
The coronavirus affected the Colombian economy so much that last November it was confirmed that it entered a recession, something that had not been seen for more than 20 years. In fact, This is the third time in history that the country faces a situation of these magnitudes, remembering that the first was beginning in the 1930s as a consequence of the Great Depression.
In April, the national economy had a historical fall of -20.55%, according to the Economic Activity Monitoring Indicator published by Dane. In recent days, the entity confirmed that this indicator in the month of October was -4.53%, giving signs that, little by little, the country is trying to recover the path it was on before the pandemic.
Another data that allows us to measure how much the coronavirus affected the country indicates that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell by 15.7% in the second quarter of this year, the worst figure in the entire national history. In the third quarter, the fall was 9%, and at the beginning of another year it will be known how that figure closed in the last quarter of 2020.
Sectors related to artistic, entertainment and other services activities were some of the ones that have suffered the most throughout the year from the pandemic. For example, in the second quarter of 2020 they managed to suffer a fall of 37.1% compared to the same period last year.
In an interview with Pulzo, the president of the Bogotá Chamber of Commerce (CCB), Nicolás Uribe, analyzed how much the coronavirus hit the national economy. “We had had a more or less stable economy. This is an unprecedented situation where we fly without a flight plan and where the recovery process is a bet that has a high level of uncertainty due to the persistence of the pandemic. and the absence of a definitive solution to move forward without it. There was never an impact of the dimensions that we have seen ”, declared the expert.
In its most recent Monetary Policy Report, the Banco de la República raised the alarm about the tough economic times the country is experiencing and how long its recovery can be delayed to scenarios similar to those it enjoyed before the pandemic. For example, the entity ensures that the deterioration in the labor market has been significant and this has made The unemployment rate has remained historically high in recent months.
The Issuer projected in that same document that Colombia will end 2020 with a national unemployment rate between 15% and 17%. “The Colombian economy would register a strong recession (drop in GDP of 7.6%). Starting in the second semester, product levels would recover slowly, without reaching the pre-pandemic values in 2021, and in an environment of wide uncertainty, “added Banco de la República.
When reviewing the way in which national politicians faced the pandemic and its possible impacts on the economy, the president of the Bogotá Chamber of Commerce considered that they did not do it all wrong. “There could have been a less prolonged quarantine at the beginning. Anticipating the quarantine could have been a mistake, but at the same time, having decreed it did not serve to almost double the intensive care units, which has allowed us to sustain the opening of the economy without putting the health of any Colombian at risk. They are guesswork around situations that are uncertain. It becomes more of a political exercise than a practical one. Each mayor, each governor and the president worked trying to make their decisions the best for everyone, ”said Uribe.
Recalling the way the country debated in the first months of the pandemic how to proceed to mitigate the negative effects of the coronavirus, the expert reflected: “The only thing I would regret is the unnecessary debate around the contrast between life and economy. That dichotomy that was initially wanted to mount to pretend to present some as enemies of life seemed to me to be unnecessary. “
How long will it take for Colombia to recover its economy
The calculations of the Banco de la República for the future are not the most encouraging. The entity stated in the aforementioned document that the reopening that the country faced for a couple of months and the easing of social isolation measures should lead the economy to a gradual recovery trend, which would last in 2021.
However, the Issuer estimates that a true recovery of the country’s economy could take about two years. “The economy would return to the activity levels observed before the pandemic only at the end of 2022, due to the slowness with which demand would recover and to lower terms of trade than those observed in previous years ”, the Bank concluded.
In this regard, Uribe considered that the country must begin to take concrete steps to advance towards the recovery that everyone expects. “We have to analyze now how we got out of this, how we do not return to a scenario like we came out of, how we guarantee that the fragile economic recovery will not be lost due to social indiscipline, If we can develop herd immunity during the vaccine, let’s see how quickly we can reactivate ”, he said.
“The first half of next year will be key in building certainty and defining the times to achieve that herd immunity. We do not know levels of recontagion and how they are going to occur from vaccinations ”, assured the president of the CCB.
The word uncertainty is the most recurrent one among experts when analyzing the national economic panorama in the coming months. The responsible behavior of citizens will largely depend on whether the so-called second wave of infections ends up being dramatic like the first or can be overcome hand in hand with the mechanisms of economic reopening.
“What I feel is that it is key not to ‘tempt the devil’ in the sense of continue generating uncertainties around the reopening process and what we are betting on is communication more from the perspective of prevention than fear. In such a way that we can understand what has had to be done from the beginning and that is that almost everything can be done as long as you take the necessary precautions, in an environment where everyone takes care of themselves and acts responsibly ”, Uribe analyzed .
When assessing the main challenges that the authorities will have to face in order to move smoothly towards a recovery, the president of the CCB pointed to informality as one of the situations that should be prioritized in the coming months.
“There are many challenges ahead. The challenge of informality is a huge one. On the part of some sectors, there has been the idea that formality is assuming higher costs than informality, and informality constantly flirts with formal ones. Only 21% of formal companies are operating in an absolute manner, without restrictions, and 56% operate with some type of restriction. At the same time, informality operates without restriction, without capacity, without biosecurity measures, without working hours, without having made an investment in the matter. There is a great challenge to see if we are able to rebuild in terms of formal, quality employment, employment that pays social security and contributes to pensions. We have to work hard to facilitate business and develop a strategy that helps us ensure that the employment that is created, that the businesses that develop are more formal than informal ”, concluded the expert.
A report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), cited by Procolombia, argues that Colombia could lead the economic recovery in Latin America with a growth of 4% in 2021, above the expected average of 3.7% for the region.
For its part, a World Bank report referenced by that same entity estimates that the Colombian economy will have a 3.6% recovery in 2021, which would be higher than those contemplated for Latin America and the Caribbean, a region that would present a growth of 2.8% in 2021.
[ad_2]
