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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is more optimistic about the Colombian economy. According to the update of the estimates that it published yesterday, the country would present a growth of 4.6% at the end of this year, which represents an improvement compared to the 4% it predicted in its previous report in October.
(Read: The IMF is more optimistic about Latin America’s economic recovery)
And he not only sees 2021 more positive, but also last year, because while in his previous figures he expected a drop of 8.2% for 2020, now that fall is expected to be 7.9%. It should be remembered that the National Government will publish the GDP data for 2020 next Monday.
(Read: Elections, another source of economic uncertainty for the region)
The estimate for which there will be no changes is that of 2022, which remains at 3.7% as already published in October, which would mean that the recovery is maintained but at a lower rate than that of 2021.
With this, although the IMF data show an important rebound for Colombia this year, it was more cautious in its forecasts than the rest of international organizations. For example, the World Bank expects a 4.9% rebound this year for the national economy, while the UN, in its last report presented in Davos, also assured that the advance would be 5%, in line with the forecast that maintains the Government.
Even so, these perspectives present high uncertainty, as explained in the report by Alejandro Werner, director of the Western Hemisphere Department for the IMF, “this recovery, which was already uneven, it has been threatened by the recent worsening of the pandemic and the reintroduction of stricter containment measures in some countries, as well as by the repercussions of the slowdown in the world economy ”.
In fact, at the press conference Werner added that “the region’s GDP will return to previous levels in 2023, and per capita GDP will do so in 2025, that is, later than other regions.”
The IMF expects a 7.4% drop for the region in 2020, while it expects a 4.1% rebound in 2021 and 2.9% in 2022.
By countries, those that will present the best performance during 2021 will be Peru (+ 9%) and Chile (+ 5.8%), although it should be noted that the fall of the first in 2020 is expected at 12%, and the second by 6 ,3%.
Argentina (4.5%), Brazil (3.6%) and Mexico (4.3%), would have a lower advance than Colombia during this year.
