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This week the bimonthly Gallup poll was released in which, among other topics, it asked about the image that Colombians have around some people who today can be considered presidential.
Although the elections are two years away, the image among Colombians may be a starting point for some of those who are not ruled out could be on the list of candidates for the House of Nariño in 2022.
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Among all the presidential candidates for whom Gallup asked, the one who appears with the greatest favor is former presidential candidate Sergio Fajardo, with 43 percent, two points less than two months ago. Its unfavorable is 23 percent.
While former Senator Juan Manuel Galán is so far looking at his eventual aspiration, the positive opinion reflected in the poll may encourage him. 43 percent said they have a favorable image of him, while the negative is only 16 percent.
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In the meantime Senator Gustavo Petro, who in the last presidential elections obtained a little over 8 million votes, has a positive image of 34 percent, although 49 percent see it with different eyes.
It is no secret to anyone that Vice President Marta Lucía Ramírez has had aspirations to reach the Casa de Nariño. According to the survey, 33 percent, four points more than two months ago, have a positive image of her. But 45 has it unfavorable.
After leaving the Medellín mayoralty, with a good image, former mayor Federico Gutiérrez has been showing himself as a possible presidential hopeful. His favorable image is at 29 percent and the unfavorable at 12 percent.
Although the defense minister, Carlos Holmes Trujillo, from Uribe, has not said that he wants to run for the presidency in 2022, his supporters take it as a fact. He has a favorable of 27 and an unfavorable of 26.
Among the presidential candidates for whom Gallup consulted is Polo Senator Jorge Enrique Robledo, about whom 26 percent of those polled said they had a favorable opinion. Its unfavorable is 19 percent.
The former mayor of Barranquilla Alejandro Char, who is always included in the pack of candidates, has a favorable rating of 20 percent. Although 33 percent of those surveyed do not see it in the same way.
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In the list consulted by Gallup there is also the attorney Fernando Carrillo, who could have a presidential aspiration for 2022. His favorability is 18 percent and his unfavorableness is 13 percent.
The survey also asked about the favourability of former Vice Minister Rafael Nieto, who has not ruled out his intention to be a presidential candidate for the Democratic Center again. 8 percent have a favorable opinion of him, and the same number have an unfavorable opinion.
For now it is very uncertain whether former Vice President Germán Vargas Lleras will be in the 2022 match, but it is a name to take into account. In the survey, his negative opinion is 50 percent, seven points less than two months ago, and his positive opinion is 26, six points more than in the last measurement.
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POLITICS
Twitter: @PoliticaET
Data sheet
COMPANY THAT CONDUCTED THE SURVEY: INVAMER SAS
NATURAL OR LEGAL PERSON THAT COMMISSIONED IT: INVAMER SAS, for sale by subscription.
SOURCE OF FINANCING: INVAMER SAS’s own resources
OBJECTIVES: to measure the favorability and approval of the President, personalities and institutions in Colombia. Know public opinion on current events. Evaluate the opinion of the general public of Colombia and of President Iván Duque Márquez. Measure the concept of the people facing current Colombian problems.
Observe the level of acceptance of the people regarding laws, proposals or statements of the moment. Carry out a general evaluation in the main cities of the country on the work of the respective mayor and the way people are perceiving their city.
UNIVERSE: men and women aged 18 or over, of all socio-economic levels, resident in: Bogotá (5,479,011), Medellín (1,813,155), Cali (1,374,126),
Barranquilla (810,019) and Bucaramanga (390,351), for a total of 9,866,662 people, according to the 2018 Census.
SAMPLING FRAME: to carry out this study, a methodology called dual frames was implemented, that is, two sampling frames (fixed line and cell number generation) were used to select people. The telephone coverage in the 5 large cities, according to the DANE census, is 85%. The households with a telephone line are: Bogotá 1,586,841, Medellín 624,376, Cali 409,353, Barranquilla 153,256 and Bucaramanga 134,132. Total 2,907,958. For the cell line frame,
features a frame of random numbers generated by Invamer.
SAMPLE SIZE AND DISTRIBUTION: 1,200 surveys (800 fixed telephony and 400 cellular telephony) distributed as follows: Bogotá 400 surveys (240
fixed telephony and 160 cellular telephony), Medellín 200 surveys (140 fixed telephony and 60 cellular telephony), Cali 200 surveys (140 fixed telephony and 60 cellular telephony),
Barranquilla 200 surveys (140 landlines and 60 cell phones) and Bucaramanga 200 surveys (140 landlines and 60 cell phones); in addition to the distribution by
socio-economic levels in proportion to the population. To adjust the total sample to the real size of the universe of each city, factors of
weighing.
SAMPLING SYSTEM: a probability sampling was carried out in stages depending on the type of sampling frame. For the fixed telephony framework, the
carried out a systematic random selection of households with fixed telephony and subsequently a simple random selection of a person aged 18 years or more is carried out. For the cell phone framework, a random selection of people over 18 years of age was carried out.
MARGIN OF ERROR: the margins of error within 95% confidence limits are: for the total sample of the 5 cities +/- 2.83%; for the total of
sample from Bogotá +/- 4.90%; for the totals of the samples from Medellín, Cali, Barranquilla and Bucaramanga +/- 6.93%.
DATA COLLECTION TECHNIQUE: computer-assisted telephone surveys (CATI).
DATA COLLECTION DATE: from August 22 to 31, 2020.
NUMBER OF INTERVIEWERS: 87 interviewers were employed.
VALIDATION METHOD: 100% of the surveys carried out were reviewed and 15% of them were supervised.
TOPICS TO WHICH IT REFERS: public opinion on leaders, characters, institutions and current events.
RESPONSE RATE: the response rate for landlines was 12.79% and for cell phones, 8.55%. This rate reflects the number of sample units that
completed the questionnaire, as a percentage of the number of eligible sample units.
CHARACTERS OR INSTITUTIONS FOR WHICH IT WAS INQUIRED: refer to the questionnaire.
SPECIFIC QUESTIONS ASKED: refer to the questionnaire.
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