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The Ministry of Health released the preliminary results of the seroprevalence study of Leticia, Barranquilla and Medellín. An analysis led by the National Institute of Health and which is essential to understand the real number of people affected by the virus in Colombia.
After two months of monitoring, the Ministry of Health released in the last hours the preliminary results of the seroprevalence study that seeks to identify the proportion of people who had Covid-19. An analysis led by the National Institute of Health and which is essential to understand the real percentage of people affected by the virus in Colombia.
As many people may have had Covid-19, Health Minister Fernando Ruiz explained during the Prevention and Action program, but they were asymptomatic or did not report the disease, it is important to perform blood tests that detect antibodies after the virus has passed through their Body. “Many people in Colombia could have had the covid and have been asymptomatic; Other people could have suffered from the disease, had symptoms and had not consulted, so they were never registered as people who had had the covid, “said the head of the health portfolio.
Read: Colombia started a large seroprevalence study. But what the heck is that?
The first findings in places where a first peak of SARS-Cov-2 was already reported showed that: in Leticia, Amazonas, six out of 10 people (that is, 60% of its inhabitants) showed they had antibodies against the coronavirus. In BarranquillaOn the other hand, more than half of the people analyzed (55%) were already infected with coronavirus. And in Medellin almost a third (27%) also had coronavirus.
The Ministry of Health reported that in total samples were taken from 15,944 people between the ages of 5 and 80. The samples were collected in Leticia between September 21 and 30; in Barranquilla between October 5 and 14 and in Medellín between October 20 and 27.
The method used was a special technique known as chemiluminescence that consists of taking the serum, adding reagents and introducing it to a machine. If there are covid-19 antibodies they light up (it means that the patient had the virus); If there is no light, it means that there are no antibodies to that disease. Minister Fernando Ruiz added that in addition to this test, “has an 86% chance of hitting the positive result and we have the support of the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) for the definition of a representative sample of people in each of the cities ”.
For Martha Ospina, director of the National Institute of Health, who gave the preliminary results verbally, these studies are essential to understand what is the real behavior of the epidemic, “Allows us to understand what is happening and where it is happening, understanding that the epidemic is asynchronous and presents distinct epidemic moments in the different cities of the country and also allows us to introduce data that are closer and closer to the models to be able to predict which are the possible scenarios in the future ”.
How is the study being done?
According to the Ministry of Health, the seroprevalence study is being carried out with the help of various teams made up mainly of workers from the health secretariats and the National Institute of Health. The experts select houses and there they conduct a survey with more than 52 demographics and risk factors. The visiting teams are made up of one person who raises awareness, another who takes notes and a third who takes the sample.
The seroprevalence study has had an investment, so far, of around $ 20 billion and is being carried out in Leticia, Barranquilla, Medellín, Bucaramanga, Bogotá, Villavicencio, Cúcuta, Cali and Ipiales. On December 20, the field collection of the remaining cities is closed and the possibility of carrying out new studies in other cities throughout 2021 to know and deepen on the subject and make future decisions is not ruled out.
The head of the Health portfolio thanked for their technical, logistical or financial support to: National Institute of Health, Ministry of Health and Social Protection, Ministry of Science and Technology, DANE, Universidad del Norte, International Center for Training and Medical Research – CIDEIM, Universidad El Bosque, Universidad Nacional headquarters Medellín, Universidad de Córdoba, Center for Attention and Diagnosis of Infectious Diseases, Colombian Agricultural Research Corporation – AGROSAVIA, University of San Francisco – California, Imperial College London and Health Secretariats.
What do the experts think?
For some epidemiologists, although the results are still preliminary, the figures released last Thursday by the National Institute of Health already leave some reflections on the table. For Javier Idovro, epidemiologist at the Industrial University of Santander, one of the first conclusions points to the mortality rates behind the percentages of infected. “Despite the good news to me, what seems to me is that those high numbers (in the case of Barranquilla and Leticia) occurred in places where there was a very high mortality and that is important because what reminds us is that reaching Those numbers so fast is the consequence of some things that we did not do well. Sometimes, I think, it is better to arrive slowly but surely and with less suffering, pain and deaths, ”he said.
However, in terms of pandemic behavior analysis, Idovro warns that the figures reflect how the epidemic has behaved according to what local governments have done and precisely shows a future outlook in making transcendental decisions such as the arrival of the vaccine to the country. “Those with fewer numbers like Medellín should be a priority because what the vaccine does is artificially increase that immunity. Those places with less seroprevalence would be the most important to vaccinate speaking of the general population. However, there will be specific populations, such as older adults, who become a priority, ”he added.
For the epidemiologist from the Industrial University of Santander, this study by the National Institute of Health should be articulated with other local initiatives. “There is a study that has already been published by Montería of the University of Córdoba and it gave them a seroprevalence of 55%. That means that it is not only what the INS and DANE are saying, but there are also important initiatives like that. Here in Bucaramanga there is an initiative led by the Hospital de Internacional de Colombia, which is much larger, we have not finished, but we are already more than 7000 people in Bucaramanga alone and there are several initiatives like that ”.
For his part, for Fernando De la Hoz, who was also part of the Cordoba seroprevalence study, these results more clearly reflect what has really happened in the country with the coronavirus. “The magnitude of the spread of the virus in the population I think is shown in a much more real way. These data are telling us that in Colombia there could probably be 20 million people or a little more, who have already been infected and that the magnitude of the infection is much greater than what health systems and surveillance services have been capable of. report, ”he said.
For De la Hoz, these results also influence the predictions of a possible new peak in the country. “As these results begin to show, the probability of a new very high peak next year depends on the local transmission pattern. For example, in Leticia or Barranquilla, and in those regions where more than half of the people have already been infected, it is very likely that they will not have a large peak. Already the number of susceptible people there is less. While others like Medellín or Bogotá, I would dare to say, because they are cities with a very large population, they still have a susceptible proportion of more than 50%, so we are still going to see important transmission, “he added.
Laura Rodríguez Villamizar, epidemiologist at the Industrial University of Santander, adds to the debate the clarification that, although the results could be favorable for places with higher percentages, this does not exempt them from being exposed to more transmissions. “The results of the seroprevalence studies in the first three cities are very in line with the expectation that most epidemiologists had after seeing what the epidemic curves of those cities were. If you see the epidemic curve of Leticia and Barranquilla, they were absolutely high curves, very sharp that later had a significant decrease greater than that of the other cities and that is closely related to the fact that the seroprevalence in those two places has been quite high, Leticia 60% and Barranquilla 55%. Although that means that this population has already had at least contact with the disease and expects one that has antibodies, that does not mean that it is free of future affectations because it still has at least 40% of its susceptible population, “he said.
Finally, for Lenis Urquijo Velasquez, epidemiologist at the Universidad del Bosque, this study opens the debate on concerns that will have to be taken up in the coming months, such as the issue of returning to school. “It is a study of the utmost importance for the country’s decision-making regarding how to continue reacting with the health authorities and the government, which have to adjust their policy, prevention measures and control measures. A big concern has to do with for sure who are really involved, how many asymptomatic people there are, how many people are without symptoms or had very mild symptoms. This is needed so that the authorities can make the decisions that correspond to transcendental effects such as the return to school, ”he added.
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