[ad_1]
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent global health research organization from the University of Washington School of Medicine, presented its global projections of the impact of the covid pandemic. -19 by the end of this year based on three scenarios.
(It may interest you: The domestic flights in which you will have to be tested for covid)
The first is the most pessimistic, in which the use of masks is maintained at the current rate and governments continue to relax the requirements of social distancing. In this case, 4,033,869 deaths are expected for January 1 around the world.
The second is the “best” and in this they would be presented 2’041.906 total deaths if the use of masks is almost universal and governments impose physical distancing requirements when their daily mortality rate exceeds 8 per million inhabitants (yesterday in Colombia it was 4, with 203 deaths).
And the third is the “most likely” scenario, which assumes that the use of masks and other mitigation measures would remain as they currently are, which projects 2,811,777 deaths on the planet due to covid-19.
(Also read: Experts acknowledge the possibility of new covid-19 peaks in Colombia)
In this sense, one of the main conclusions of the report presented by the IHME is that about 770,000 lives could be saved, representing about 30,000 daily in December, if the world goes from the “most likely” to the “best” scenario.
It goes without saying that each of these projections reflect a significant increase in less than three months over the total estimated deaths to date (910,000) after nine months of emergency.
According to this institute, the expected increase could be attributed in part to a seasonal increase in COVID-19 cases in the northern hemisphere. “To date, the coronavirus has followed seasonal patterns similar to pneumonia, and if that correlation continues, northern countries may anticipate more cases in the late fall and winter months,” they warn.
“These first world projections give a grim prognosis, as well as a roadmap towards covid-19 relief that both leaders and the population can follow”Said Christopher Murray, director of the IHME.
(We recommend: According to figures from Dane, Colombia exceeded the peak of deaths from covid-19)
And is that the “most likely” scenario projects a total of 959,685 deaths as of January 1 in the Americas region, 667,811 in the Europe region, 79,583 in the Africa region, 168,711 in the Middle East region, 738,427 in the Southeast Asia region, and 191,598 in the Western Pacific region.
“We are facing the prospect of a deadly December,” Murray continued, “especially in Europe, Central Asia and the United States. But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: the mask, physical distance and limits to social gatherings are vital to help prevent the transmission of the virus.
The Colombian case
Last April, the projections of the Ministry of Health and the National Institute of Health, in a document sent on June 8 to the Constitutional Court, maintained that, if the conditions of that moment were maintained, the number of deaths at the end of the year in the country would be 41,622, with a higher rank of 55,411.
According to yesterday’s report, the confirmed deaths are 21,615, with a downward trend that, if maintained, could even be below the expected figure.
However, the IHME for the Colombian case projects that under current conditions 43,564 deaths could be registered due to covid-19 and in the worst case scenario (full relaxation of the measures) it could reach 78,302.
(See also: Mass vaccination against covid could be in mid-2021: WHO)
In this sense, the infectologist Carlos Eduardo Pérez insists that today, when the moment is practically open, it is time to reinforce all biosanitary measures under the condition that if applied in a general way, the effect would be measured in lives saved.
“Given the relaxation of some people, it is imperative that this type of behavior be socially sanctioned because the evidence shows that the risk can be very high,” says Pérez.
Other countries
In the United States, the most likely scenario places victims at 410,451 at the end of 2020. In Latin America, the most likely scenario in Mexico involves 138,828 deaths (there are currently 66,329) and an incidence of 104.5 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants as the best stage.
Another Latin American country badly hit by covid-19 is Peru, where the IHME projections place deaths at 46,528 in the best of cases, compared to 29,405 today. For Ecuador, the projections in the best of cases at the end of the year are 117.4 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, and in Panama 104.8, according to the study.
(We recommend: Covid-19: Lack of vitamin D would increase the risk of contagion)
HEALTH UNIT
Check here all the news from the EL TIEMPO Health Unit.
Contact us through @HealthET, on Twitter, or at [email protected].
[ad_2]
