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It is impossible to know precisely if COVID-19 cases will increase after these holidays. At the moment there are some regions like Antioquia, Atlántico and Magdalena that have a disturbing UCI occupation.
Last Sunday we published in El Espectador an article entitled “The risk of reaching a third peak in Colombia.” It was a brief account of the COVID-19 situation in the country and the challenges that would come with Easter. The increase in cases, the greater positivity in some regions and the increase in the occupation of intensive care units (ICU) had the authorities very concerned and that is why their call was the same as for months: avoid crowds, use the mask and do not stay in closed spaces where there is no ventilation.
Today, a week later, it is difficult to know precisely what has changed in these days and if the warnings had any effect. Although the number of cases has increased in recent days (7,049, on March 29; 7,952, on March 30; 8,646, on March 31, and 11,449 on April 1), it is still too early to draw conclusions. on the consequences of the behavior of Colombians in this atypical Holy Week, even if some politicians and opinion-makers venture to do so.
An indicator that can provide clues about the current situation is ICU occupancy. Compared to a week ago, several departments are in trouble. Antioquia is probably the most disturbing. It went from having an availability of 17.4% to having one of 12.7%. Atlántico, where cases have skyrocketed, has remained with an occupancy of approximately 79%. In Magdalena, another of the territories to which the Ministry of Health has drawn attention, only 22% of the ICU remains. The situation is very different in Casanare, Putumayo and Norte de Santander, where availability is greater than 60% and 70% (the graph that accompanies this text shows the panorama of the entire country with more precision).
Is it possible, then, as so many have repeated, that the country is at a third peak? The answer to this question has many nuances, but to answer it you have to understand, as the epidemiologist Silvana Zapata explained in these pages, that if there is a third peak it will be territorialized. That is why the situation in Bogotá (explained on page 2) must be read with very different eyes from that of other regions. The positivity (figure that indicates the percentage of positive samples with respect to the total of processed) is also different depending on the place to be examined.
The same happens with the reproductive number (Rt), which shows the number of people that can be infected by someone who has the virus, and which, in an ideal world, should be less than 1. Sincelejo, with an Rt of 1, 12 and Montería, with one of 1.10, are the cities that cause the most concern, according to data from the National Institute of Health.
These figures have led some mayors to take unusual measures this Easter and that, in many cases, will last until next Monday. The Mayor’s Office of Barranquilla, for example, modified the curfew schedule: now it is from 6:00 p.m. to 5:00 a.m. In Atlántico there is also a curfew (from 4 p.m. to 5 a.m.) and dry law in the 22 municipalities of the department.
But it is not all bad news. In recent days, the rate of vaccination in Colombia has improved remarkably. Doses were administered to more than 100,000 people over several days. On March 28, they were applied to 91,937; on March 29, at 146,193; on March 30, at 156,476, and on March 31, at 121,862. On April 1, however, that number dropped again: 57,498. Although they are hopeful numbers, the message of the health workers is the same: do not lower your guard. “Unfortunately, until nations move closer to herd immunity, we are likely to see waves of infection,” Mike Tildesley, an expert in infectious disease modeling at the University of Warwick and a scientific adviser to the UK government, had told CNN.
The closest example that shows the complexity of this situation is Chile. Although it has had an admirable and applauded vaccination rate around the world, COVID-19 cases soared again. The solution of its authorities was, for the moment, to close borders. Travelers will not be able to enter or leave (unless it is an emergency) between April 5 and May 1. There they have administered some 10.5 million doses. In Colombia, 2’300.890.
