[ad_1]
With 27,331 deaths from covid-19 and 886,179 confirmed cases of coronavirus, Colombia is generally in a phase of decline of the pandemic, according to official data.
(We recommend: When will new covid-19 peaks be experienced in the capitals of the country?)
For the sample it is that in August, the daily average of positives was 10,310 and in September it decreased to 8,749, and the most evident fall in the record was in the last week of that month, when the daily average reached 6,485.
However, in the first week of October a break is observed in this downward trend with a slight increase in confirmed cases, since 6,857 were registered on a daily average and yesterday 8,496 new diagnoses were registered.
These data have caused some to consider that the risk of a resurgence of the pandemic is real.
(Also read: Doctor denounces threats from the family of the deceased by covid)
In concrete terms, according to the infectious disease specialist Carlos Eduardo Pérez, it is not possible to speak of outbreaks nor of a second wave since the country has not finished descending from the first peak, which reached its maximum peak in late July and early July. August.
However, the expert considers that after the opening and general reactivation of the country on September 1 There could be changes in the slope, becoming more horizontal and even presenting ‘humps or ascents.
In reading this trend, for example, it is found that Bogotá, which had a daily average of 3,527 cases in August, decreased by 45 percent in September (1,930 daily on average and even in the last week it registered 1,645).
However, this downward trend broke down in the first week of October with an increase of 7 percent, registering 1,762 cases on average each day, with which the same District authorities warned about the possibility that these would continue to increase.
(You may be interested: new covid peaks are possible in Colombia, and now what to do?)
This could be aggravated when coinciding with the rainy season and the massive departure of people to the streets, conditions that pose a disturbing panorama for the end of October and beginning of November, according to authorities and experts. But the increase in cases, according to Mayor Claudia López, could be related to factors such as protests and marches in mid and late September.
Other cities
Bogotá is not the only one that presents this situation. With the same benchmarks, Cali, which had a sustained decline between the end of July and September, presented a slight increase of 7 percent in its daily average in the first week of October, which for health-care practitioner Elizabeth Beltrán is a turning point that, although not serious, is worth addressing.
When looking at the databases, it can be seen that Barranquilla had been a clear example of recovery, since it went from having 545 cases on a daily average in July to presenting 209 in August and 63 in September. Unfortunately, for the first week of October an increase of 35 percent is observed in this city, with an average of 85 cases daily. Even yesterday there were 117. These data also put a yellow traffic light in this city.
The same may be happening in Cartagena, where a significant fact was evidenced, because of the 241 cases in daily average that it had in July, it went on to report 156 in August, 86 in September and 52 in the last week of last month. which contrast with the 148 in the first week of October, which represents an increase of 185 percent. Yesterday, in fact, 189 positives were reported in this city.
(See: Why does covid hit healthy people hard?)
In other regions
In this scenario you also have to understand that some cities are still on their way to their first peak, like Cúcuta, which had an increase of 39 percent of cases on average in the last week; Neiva (grew 33 percent in the daily average); Manizales (plus 62 percent); Armenia (91 percent); Tunja (67 percent) and Yopal (55 percent).
Faced with this scenario, the infectologist Carlos Álvarez recalls that the pandemic has allowed us to learn many things, among them, that infections can be controlled with self-care (hand washing, physical distancing, use of face masks) and collective guidelines (compliance with biosecurity protocols in companies, shopping centers and transportation).
‘In general we see a progressive decline’
Luis Alexánder Moscoso, Vice Minister of Health, answered some questions to EL TIEMPO.
How is the country doing in terms of a pandemic?
The country behaves by regions and there are some that are in a low phase of contagion, others in the middle part of the curve, others at the top and others rising. But, in general terms, we see a progressive decline in indicators such as the deceased. The cases have also increased because the number of tests increases.
Which regions are going up and which are going down?
Neiva is at the peak and beginning to descend; Armenia and Tunja have an upward behavior; and other cities have not started a definitive growth of cases, such as Ibagué, Pereira, Manizales and Popayán. All these regions have something in common and that is that they have high longevity and people with comorbidities, therefore, for them and for the whole country, people at risk must try to stay at home.
What risk does the increase in cases bring in various regions?
The increase in cases is accompanied by hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths. That is why we must intervene in this together. There are still many susceptible people.
The dead, who were coming down, have stabilized, why?
The figures have been decreasing at a very slight rate, we had a period of stagnation of several weeks due to older adults who died and due to a false perception of the risk of citizens who thought that the disease is not there. But we must continue to take care of ourselves.
HEALTH UNIT
Check here all the news from the EL TIEMPO Health Unit.
Contact us through @Health, on Twitter, or by email at [email protected].
[ad_2]
