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After exceeding 10,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus and at the end of another extension of the general quarantine, the crude analyzes of the data suggest that, Although the growth rate of infections has enabled the preparation of the hospital system and flexibility in isolation, there are points that must be taken into account.
To begin with, the analysis of the curve prepared on moving averages of new cases by date of diagnosis, prepared by EL TIEMPO, shows that the announcements of relaxation of the isolation coincide with an increase in the slope of the patients, which would indicate, among others things, breaks in discipline to maintain quarantine and a decrease in the rigor of measures to control the pandemic.
(You may be interested in: Colombia reaches 10,495 cases of contagion by coronavirus)
This is the case, for example, of the increase in diagnoses that becomes visible on the four holidays of Easter, when the general quarantine was active, which shows indiscipline on the part of some sectors of the population.
This phenomenon is also evident in recent days, when, even without the reactivation of some economic sectors, the curve began to rise from April 27. It is as if, in the opinion of some experts, the mere announcement was a flag for people to take to the streets, contrary to the measures.
Other data from the analysis show that from April 21 to 26, the new daily cases began to exceed 200, and from April 27 to May 1 they did not drop below 300, an increase that, as noted, It is also due to the increase in tests in some cities.
And, in the same sense, the graphs of the evolution of the pandemic show a slowdown in the increase in cases between March 19 and 24, directly related to the implementation of the isolami
Duplication of cases
An important indicator when making decisions is the time it takes for confirmed cases to double. When reviewing the numbers it is shown that between March 14 and 26 this occurred every three days, and even, from the 23rd it reached 2.22 days.
(Also read: 678 health workers in Colombia infected with coronavirus)
However, This growth slowed down later, to such an extent that the doubling reached 6 days between April 1 and April 6. Due to quarantine, this indicator was later extended to 13 days. And, from April 14 to 30, it increased to 16 days.
This shows that this element cannot be contracted again, hence it is very important to keep it in an epidemiological context.
Elderly victims
Another point of analysis to speak of discipline and rigor in quarantine is the impact of the new coronavirus on older populations, since those over 70 years old were the first to be confined to a compulsory basis. But when looking at the statistics, it is clear that the age group that proportionally presents the most cases is that of those over 80, followed by 20 to 39.
However, while one per 200 people dies in minors, three per 10 infected die in the group of the older adult population. All this with the aggravating circumstance that while the national average of lethality is at 4.32 percent, in those over 70 it reaches 22.74 percent and in those over 80, a worrying 32.26% .
This data is significantly significant because, despite the rules and the calls to care for this population, there is no rigor from the family and social sphere to protect them, explains the health expert Elizabeth Beltrán. “You can’t think they were all infected in their homes,” he says.
Asymmetries
Although national averages show that 64.8 percent of cases are in the home, 5.5 percent have reached general hospitalization and intensive care units, 1.3 percent, and 24.1 percent, in addition, have recovered, the truth is that a quick look shows disturbing differences in some regions.
(Also read: Coronavirus: more than 3,000 Colombians have been repatriated)
For example, when reviewing the impact of the pandemic on a ratio of 100,000 inhabitants, Amazonas tops the list with 544.17 cases, well above the national average, which stands at 19.95. The Meta is second, with 78.52 in this rate; Bogotá has 49.38; Valle del Cauca, 27.87 and Risaralda, 22.8.
For Pedro Cifuentes, an expert in health systems, with these data it is clearly inferred that there are places where quarantine is simply not respected. In fact, if these figures are taken to municipalities, the differences are greater, as can happen with Tumaco, Leticia and some towns on the Coast. “The authorities have been lax in control,” he concludes.
It is important to note that the increase in cases reported in recent days (595 on Friday, 497 on Thursday and 346 on Wednesday) coincides with the increase in the application of tests in cities such as Bogotá, Cali and Villavicencio, a condition that is expected it happens for the rest of the country, especially, with the targeting of risk groups as announced by the Deputy Minister of Health, Luis Moscoso.
However, it is also key to clarify that the case reports that are given every day do not correspond exactly to diagnoses made that day. As can be seen in the infographic that breaks down the report of May 8, This includes results of tests taken even since March 25. Or, in other words, there are serious lags in the readings, which it is urgent to correct.
For this reason, before a new relaxation, Carlos Mario Pulido, emergency physician and administration expert, calls attention to the fact that in recent days there has been a worrying flow of patients with respiratory symptoms to these areas, mainly in the elderly. “If surveillance and control are not strengthened to apply sanitary measures and maintain confinement in risk groups, the numbers may grow”, reiterates.
HEALTH UNIT
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