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The danger has not yet gone, as the hurricane season ends on November 30, which does not mean that after that date no new events can occur.
According to Christian Euscátegui, Videoclimet meteorologist, there is already a warning from the National Hurricane Center, because very close to the Gulf of Urabá there is a cyclonic formation with a 40% probability that in the next five days it could become a tropical cyclone that, depending on its training, it will take a certain direction that is not yet known.
“If it goes north, it could have an impact on San Andrés again. Hopefully not, but at the moment there is no certainty about where it could go, “he explained.
You can read: Two dead and one missing, the balance of Iota’s passage through Providencia
Tropical waves are constant. In fact, there is already one entering from the east, near La Guajira, which will have an impact on the increase in rainfall in the northern and central regions of the country, in departments such as Antioquia, Santander, the coast and areas of Chocó.
It should be mentioned that the passage of Hurricane Iota left a destruction of more than 90%, that is, almost 1,490 homes of the 1,500 that exist on the island of Providencia, destruction of communications, energy and water infrastructure. In addition, two deaths were confirmed.
Iota reached the highest category of hurricanes and became the first of this magnitude to hit the islands located in the Colombian Caribbean in such a way. Many questions have arisen after the passage of Iota, especially if the Archipelago was prepared to face a hurricane of such magnitude, and also, if more could be done to prevent and face the passage of this through the territory of San Andrés.
Euscátegui explained that Iota went from a tropical storm to a hurricane because it found a much warmer ocean and humidity conditions conducive to organizing and evolving with higher speed winds.
According to the expert, these warming conditions in the Atlantic are mainly due to the phenomenon of ‘the girl’ that lives in the Pacific Ocean.
“The Pacific has a cooling situation associated with a phenomenon of the girl. When the Pacific cools, the Atlantic normally heats up and that is what is happening ”, explained Euscátegui.
Due to this balance between oceans, which means that while one ocean is cold the other remains warmer, the impact of tropical cyclones that have touched San Andrés and the region has been favored, as happened not many days ago with the hurricane. Eta.
“If there were a different condition that the Pacific was warm, the Atlantic would very surely be very cool and with that the cyclone season would not be active. Normally when the Atlantic is not warm, but is very cool, the tropical cyclone season is not so significant, “explained Euscátegui about the reasons for Iota to grow in categories quickly.
As explained by the expert, 2020 became one of the periods with the highest activity of tropical cyclones in history. This year there have already been 31 cyclones, demonstrating an active hurricane season that is not over yet.
The number of hurricanes was such that the masculine and feminine names with which these meteorological phenomena are normally called were exhausted and the letters of the Greek alphabet had to be used, which has happened only on two occasions.
The center of Hurricane Iota passed about 18 km from Providencia, with winds that reached 259 km per hour.
“What effects does this have? Total collapse of roofs, of walls that cannot withstand that intensity in the winds, the collapse of constructions that have a very basic structure, damage to piers, vegetation that is washed away by the wind, total erosion of beaches, floods from different contiguous areas to the coastal zone and more in an area as small as Providencia has it ”, explained the meteorologist.
But was the island able to prepare, avoid or manage the emergency in another way? For Euscátegui, although in Colombia there is a national system for risk management and there is a protocol for care at the local and national level, the effects of this hurricane managed to exceed all the effects of any action plan.
César Pizarro, a journalist in San Andrés, affirmed that the island had always been fortunate enough that hurricanes stayed away from its region. For some reason, the cyclones dispersed or changed course and did not affect the Archipelago with such magnitude. But with Iota, the magnitude grew in less than half a day and it was evident that the island was very vulnerable to these hurricanes.
For Euscátegui, knowing 24 hours in advance that the cyclone could turn into a hurricane, it could be said and thought that there was a little time to evacuate the population. However, he pointed out that it is very difficult, in logistical terms, to think that the total number of people from the islands could be evacuated in that time.
“Entering to signal is complex and telling people to leave is complex because where. Leaving there implies either a flight or the maritime issue, but without knowing the logistics issue well, it is difficult to think that in 24 hours all the people could have been evacuated ”, he assured.
“A hurricane is not contained by anyone. Can we control nature? We can mitigate, of course, ”said the journalist Pizarro, who stressed that there was actually no where to evacuate all the people from Providencia.
For Pizarro, the discussion should now focus on the construction of real shelters, since controlling a hurricane is impossible, but it is possible to establish solid shelters with a wide capacity that allow receiving and protecting as many people as possible in the middle of an emergency How is it going.
“We began to establish that the shelters were the churches and the schools, which I don’t think have the structure to protect lives in a phenomenon of nature. From now on, we must demand that the national government and the municipal government build real shelters ”, he emphasized.
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