[ad_1]
The setting is nightmare. This November 4, a day after the presidential elections in the United States, the country rises with the news that there is no clear winner and that both the Republican Donald trump like the democrat Joe biden they are claiming victory.
Both parties demand elections and the country descends into a violent constitutional crisis with no precedent in history.
(Read also: These are the positions of Trump and Biden on key issues for the United States.)
Until recently, no one imagined that something like this could happen in the most stable democracy in the world and, at most, it sounded like the script of a Hollywood movie. But as the ‘Day D’, the anguish that such an outcome ends up materializing has been growing like foam.
In large part, the fear is rooted in statements by President Trump, who has been denouncing the elections for weeks as “The most fraudulent in all history” –Although they haven’t happened yet– and it still doesn’t commit to a peaceful transition of power.
Trump alleges that vote-by-mail lends itself to all kinds of manipulation and has asked his supporters to be ready for a possible “theft” of the elections. Democrats, for their part, believe that the president is looking for an excuse to justify his defeat and hold on to power.
The first thing to clarify is that the US has been using this system to vote for decades.
In the 2016 election, in fact, nearly 40 million people, a third of the total, voted by mail, including Trump himself. And never, except for marginal cases that do not exceed a handful, have irregularities been detected.
That is, the final result could take at least a week to be known or even longer
In Florida, early voting has already started for the elections between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
However, given the restrictions and fears that exist due to the coronavirus pandemic, it is estimated that a much higher percentage of people will exercise their right through the post office in 2020. And that has opened the door for speculation.
(Read here: Who’s Who in the US Electoral Race?)
Several states, in fact, have expanded their vote-by-mail programs to accommodate these new realities. But that has led to a multitude of lawsuits before the courts, especially from Republicans, as it is estimated that many more Democrats will use this method to vote.
The problem starts the night of the elections and is associated with the system that each state uses to count absentee votes. In the vast majority, this only begins to be counted once the face-to-face vote is processed, the result of which is almost automatic. And that, in general, can take several days.
Additionally, several states allow a person to vote by mail until Election Day as long as they have a post office stamp showing they were deposited on November 3. But that implies that it will take at least three or four days while it arrives and others more while it is counted. That is, the final result could take at least a week to be known or even longer.
Trump supporters blindly believe what he says. And it is easy to imagine a mob of angry voters taking to the streets to defend him even if the results do not favor him
A man holds a “Latinos for Trump” banner during the rally of Ivanka Trump, daughter and adviser to the president and a Republican candidate for president of the United States in Miami, Florida.
But no one knows exactly what each candidate will do while that happens, although both have telegraphed their approach. Since a majority of Democrats have said they will vote by mail, Biden’s position is that a winner cannot be declared until all votes are counted.
(Further: Reconstruction of the alliance with Colombia will be one of my priorities’: Biden)
In the case of Republicans, it is estimated that a good part will vote in person. That means that Trump’s first count – the one on election night – could favor him. And it would not be strange that, based on those partial results, it comes out to claim victory.
If it does, and then Biden ends up prevailing when the vote count ends, the president could use his pulpit to tell the party rank and file that, as anticipated, the election was stolen.
“Trump supporters blindly believe what the president says. And it is easy to imagine a mob of angry voters taking to the streets to defend him even if the results do not favor him, “says Norm Ornstin, of the American Enterprise Institute.
Something that would surely also open the door for dozens of lawsuits in the country’s courts, as Republicans have already anticipated that they plan to resort to them at the slightest suspicion. And the same would happen with the Democrats if the subsequent results give Biden the winner.
Many have equated this moment to that of the 2000 elections, when George W. Bush was declared the winner a month after the election after a controversial vote recount. in Florida in which he defeated Vice President Al Gore by only 537 votes.
(Read here: The Colombian who has turned fully in favor of Trump speaks)
That, after the Supreme Court of Justice, with a Republican majority, indicated that whoever was ahead in the last count should be declared the winner. Although Gore had the legal resources to continue questioning the result, he chose to admit defeat to avoid a constitutional crisis.
Little trust
But the present moment is very different. The polarization in the US is extreme and there is very little trust in rivals and institutions.
(Read also: Four days away from elections in the US, so goes the presidential race)
For the Democrats, that who ends up making the final decision is a conservative court composed of judges that he himself Trump named is nonsense. Especially if Biden ends up winning the popular vote again, as Hillary Clinton did in 2016, and the perception grows that Republicans are using their majorities to prevail by force and that the president is contributing with his constant attacks on the integrity of the the elections.
“This is potentially like the situation in Florida in 2000, but to the tenth power.”says Professor Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Political Center. Of course, much depends on the outcome of the elections as such. If there is a Biden sweep, and that is well possible given what the polls say, it will be very difficult for Trump to press his fraud argument.
According to Sabato, even the Republicans themselves, faced with that reality, would end up abandoning it. That’s especially true if Trump ends up losing in most calls. “Undecided states”, who are the ones who will define these elections. And the same applies in the event of a resounding defeat by Biden.
But the situation gets murky if the name of the winner depends on the results in one or two states where voting is tight and there are ongoing lawsuits from both parties.
(Read here: Who is winning the US presidency according to the polls?)
To this should be added the mistrust that already exists regarding the certification of the results at the state level, since it falls on the party that controls the government and Congress, and the situation lends itself to ending up being rigged.
If all this happens, the crisis could be capital. Especially since neither the Constitution nor the laws foresee what to do in this type of case and there is a lot of room for partisan interpretations.
“The chance that the election is going to be very tight in a state that weighs before the Electoral College is rather small. But if it turns out to be so, then we are in serious danger”Says Rick Hansen, professor of electoral politics at the University of California.
A danger that previously seemed distant but that today, given the course of events, has begun to worry.
SERGIO GÓMEZ MASERI
CORRESPONDENT OF THE TIME
WASHINGTON
