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It’s time for the truth. After four chaotic years and one of the most disputed campaigns in history, millions of Americans will go to the polls on Tuesday to define who, among Joe Biden and Donald Trump, he keeps the keys to the White House.
Or at least a part of them, well almost 100 million they had already done it in advance and others were expected 60 million face-to-face votes. Figures without antecedents in this country and that speak, by themselves, of the enormous interest that exists among the population to participate in elections that are seen, by Republicans and Democrats, as a matter of life and death.
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And the uncertainty could not be greater. This weekend there was a deluge of polls that, while confirming the favoritism of the former vice president, also showed a race that has tightened slightly in some of the states that will define the contest.
Something that is generating fear, especially among Democrats, at the possibility of a repeat of the 2016 results, when Trump ended up winning, despite many polls pointing to his defeat.
And while this is a different race and pollsters have said they took corrections to avoid a similar debacle, the mood is one of caution and there is no one uncovering champagne.
Perhaps the opposite. Both Biden and TrumpThey, like the most prominent figures in the parties, turned headlong into a frenzy at the last minute across the country to encourage their voters.
Something that was reflected even in the pages of this newspaper with two interviews of both candidates competing for the votes of Hispanics and Colombians in the United States.
As anticipated, all eyes will be on that group of states tonight. “Undecided” They are going to tip the balance. And although there are about 12 people, in reality there are five, or less, who have the country with their hearts in their hands. In the first place are Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, or the so-called ‘blue wall’, who had been voting for Democrats for decades, but four years ago they turned their back on them.
If Biden recovers them and wins the same states in which he was imposed Hillary clinton (where he goes ahead, according to all the polls), he wins the elections. But if he loses in any of them, his aspirations can be ballooned unless he succeeds in one of the other states “Undecided”.
At the moment, the polls say that the former vice president is ahead in all. In Michigan, by 5.1 points, based on the average of Real Clear Politics; in Wisconsin, by 6.6, and in Pennsylvania, by 4.3.
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The problem is that it was in these three states that the polls went wrong the most in 2016. In Michigan, a few days before the elections, they said that Clinton was ahead by 3.4 points but Trump won it by a margin of .3 percent.
In Wisconsin they favored Hillary by 6 points and Trump prevailed by .7 points and in Pennsylvania they gave him a 1.9 point advantage and lost by .7.
In this election cycle, Biden’s lead over Trump is greater in all three states than it was four years ago. And pollsters have said that they have corrected the models to avoid mistakes.
Joe Biden, Democratic candidate for president of the United States.
Among the adjustments, carry out surveys closer to election day to be able to count those who decide at the last moment and discriminate by educational level, since they believe that The vote of people without higher education, who favored Trump, was undervalued.
As it says Nate silver, from FiveThirtyEight (election experts), for Trump to repeat the surprise, the polls would have to be even more wrong than four years ago.
But, note, the difference is very close to the margin of error and anything could happen. Especially in elections in which it is not clear if people intend to go to the polls in the face of the threat of covid-19 and in which voting by mail has been used as never before, which could complicate the scrutiny.
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The other two states that could be key are Arizona and Florida, both won by Trump last time. In Arizona, a state that tends to favor Republicans, polls suggest that Biden could win it. In Florida there is a technical tie. And a defeat of the president in either of the two could be fatal.
And a defeat of the president in either of the two could be fatal.
The other issue that caused concern among the experts is related to the vote count and the moment in which the name of the winner will be known.
In the US, each state has different rules about how long it can take to count the votes and when it announces the official results. And that ranges from two to 5 weeks.
But generally the name of the winner is known on the night of the election – or the next day – based on predictions made by the media using partial results.
Something that has rarely presented problems as the winner’s margins have been clear and the volume of votes pending to be counted beyond Election Day has been very small.
In these elections the situation is different as millions of people chose to vote by mail. It is a type of vote that takes longer to be counted, as it is done manually, and includes the verification of signatures and other control measures. In addition, several states, including Pennsylvania, have given a few extra days to allow votes that are still processing in the mail to arrive.
Since no one knows the real volume of that absentee vote, chances are that the media cannot anticipate the winner unless the advantage for one or the other is very great.
What if it can happen, and that is another great concern, is that one of the two candidates declares the winner without having finished counting. Especially in the case of Trump, since it is believed that his supporters will vote more in a presence wayHe could go ahead on the initial count but then lose ground once the mail vote is counted.
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According to Trump, Colombia is a priority for the White House.
Donald Trump campaign.
And to that uncertainty is also added the possibility that some party, or both, demand the elections in a state where irregularities are detected.
All a scenario that is contributing to the atmosphere of tension that is breathed and that has already erupted in some parts of the country.
This weekend, for example, multiple incidents of clashes between Trump supporters and Biden were reported.
In Texas, more than 100 cars of “winner” They intercepted a Biden campaign bus and the police had to intervene so they could reach their final destination.
In Washington, the capital, many businesses near the White House have protected their cabinets with sheets of wood preventing strong protests if perception grows that elections are being stolen.
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That is why the media and experts are asking citizens for patience while the states finish counting the votes and a winner can be announced.
But that clamor has been affected by statements from Trump officials indicating that they plan to claim victory tonight if they go ahead in the count. despite knowing that there will be millions of votes still in the process of being added.
SERGIO GÓMEZ MASERI
EL TIEMPO correspondent
Washington
