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Although the fall in WTI oil this Monday, when it reached negative territory for the first time in history, and the reflection that occurred in the reference barrel Brent (closed this Wednesday at $ 20.37 and rose 5.4 percent ), It is not yet seen strongly in the country, in the medium and long term its effects will be very important, if rapid measures are not taken.
This Wednesday, in a debate in the Fifth Committee of the House of Representatives, this was shown by representatives of the industry and the Government itself.
And although in said parliamentary session the president of Ecopetrol, Felipe Bayón, maintained that in the case of the company, the adjustment measures taken in recent years allow it to generate profit with a price of crude oil greater than 30 dollars and the average for the year. is $ 47 to date, The short and medium term outlook looks very complex for the rest of the companies.
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And it is because according to Germán Espinosa, Executive President of the Chamber of Petroleum Goods and Services (Campetrol), the industry is once again facing a new normal of lower prices, which can be between $ 30 and $ 40 per barrel, almost half of what was before the juncture entered.
Under this scenario, the president of the Colombian Petroleum Association (ACP), Francisco José Lloreda, revealed that the union’s new estimates point to exploratory investment this year $ 640 million to just $ 270 million, down 60 percent.
In the case of production, which is the variable that most influences the economy in the short term, the resources allocated will no longer be 1,200 million dollars but 530 million, with a reduction of 50 percent.
For this reason, according to the ACP, with oil prices below $ 25, there would be a 100,000 barrel drop in Colombia’s oil production, which, compared to a government target of 900,000 barrels per day, would affect during the accounts of the Government and the regions.
The petroleum union calculates that due to this situation there would be a fiscal impact of 12.1 trillion pesos, both due to lower tax payments to the Central Government, and due to a lower generation of royalties for the regions.
The former because according to the ACP, the collapse in international prices and an initial reduction of 35,000 barrels per day of production implies a significant drop in revenue. It would go from an estimated collection in 2019 of 16.1 trillion pesos in royalties, taxes and economic rights to a
estimated collection of 4 billion pesos in 2020.For this projection, the ACP took a price of Brent crude oil for the year 2020 of $ 35 per barrel and a dollar price of 3,900 pesos.
Pipeline fees, expensive
And given that the drop in prices makes production costs unsustainable, despite the fact that all companies have been working to reduce their expenses and cut investments, the ACP urged the Government to take direct action on pipeline tariffs, that go to Ecopetrol’s income, since the different oil companies are currently paying between 7 and 15 dollars per barrel, a cost that is very high compared to other countries.
“Pipeline transportation is the only link in the sector chain whose cost in recent years has remained practically the same, it represents around half of production costs, it is not manageable by E&P companies because it is regulated by the Ministry of Energy and various studies show that it is excessive, “Lloreda said.
As recalled, last year there was a strong controversy between the sector and the Government, as the times to negotiate rates accelerated, and the process of construction went to a faster one of direct negotiation between each pipeline with its customers.
According to Lloreda, in the case of Ocensa, the country’s main pipeline, this rate should go from $ 7 to $ 3, which in his opinion is a profitable level for pipelines and allows companies to manage the situation.
This pipeline, controlled by Cenit, a subsidiary of Ecopetrol, has a rate of $ 1.02 per kilometer, while the TransEcuadorian pipeline has a rate of $ 0.50 per barrel.
A decision in this regard rests with the Ministry of Mines and Energy.
ECONOMY AND BUSINESS – THE TIME
