[ad_1]
Colombia would have growth this year above world averages and that of the Latin American and Caribbean region, according to the ‘Global Economic Outlook’ report, published yesterday by the World Bank.
According to the document, the world economy would have fallen 4.3 percent last year, in the worst global recession since World War II, due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
This year, the world’s gross domestic product (GDP) would grow 4 percent. Meanwhile, in Latin America and the Caribbean, growth would be 3.7 percent.
The forecast for Colombia is for growth of 4.9 percent in 2021 (1.2 points above growth in the region and 0.9 above world growth) and 4.3 percent in 2022.
The World Bank improved Colombia’s growth forecast for 2021 by 1.3 points, since in its previous forecast it estimated a growth of 3.6 percent.
According to the multilateral institution, the Colombian economy fell 7.5 percent last year, and that of Latin America and the Caribbean, 6.9 percent.
(Further: 2020 inflation, the lowest in history for a full year)
Reasons for Colombia’s growth
“In Colombia – says the report on global perspectives – growth is projected to reach 4.9 percent in 2021, underpinned by strong domestic demand. The energy sector is expected to benefit from increases in oil prices. Growth is projected to hold at 4.3 percent in 2022 ”.
The analysis shows that Colombia’s growth will also be above that of the different subregions of the hemisphere. For example, the expected growth for South America is 3.7 percent; that of Central America, 3.6 percent, and that of the Caribbean, 4.5 percent.
In the world, the highest growth will be the Maldives, with 9.5 percent, and China will have the third highest growth, with 7.9 percent.
Meanwhile, in Latin America and the Caribbean, the greatest increase in activity will be that of Peru, with 7.6 percent, after suffering a 12 percent drop in 2020.
In the report, which does not provide a projection for Venezuela, there are seven economies in the world whose production would continue to fall this year. And the biggest contraction would be that of Lebanon, with 13.2 percent.
(See: New home in 2021? We tell you how to access a housing subsidy)
In Latin America and the Caribbean, the greatest increase in activity will be that of Peru, with 7.6 percent, after suffering a 12 percent drop in 2020
In Latin America, Nicaragua would fall, with a 0.9 percent reduction in its activity. Meanwhile, in the non-Spanish-speaking countries of the region, Suriname would suffer a reduction of 1.9 percent.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Venezuela’s economy would fall 10 percent this year, after contracting 25 percent in 2020.
The World Bank also expects Colombia to have higher growth than other regional blocs in the world, such as emerging countries.without China, which will rebound 3.4 percent, or advanced economies, which will rebound 3.3 percent.
The emerging economies of East Asia and the Pacific, including China, will have growth of 7.4 percent.
When analyzing the way in which Colombia has faced the crisis due to the pandemic, the multilateral entity highlights how in the country social transfers have managed to cover a “particularly large part of the population”, as in other countries such as Bolivia, Brazil and Chile.
(As well: Change the order for personal income tax return in 2021)
According to the IMF, Venezuela’s economy would fall this year 10 percent
Likewise, in the monetary policy response, it is emphasized that in Colombia, as in Chile, quantitative easing programs were added to other measures such as liquidity provisions.
Regarding the fall in Colombian production in 2020, the multilateral entity reduced its calculation, and estimating a contraction of 4.9 percent, it now believes that the reduction was 7.5 percent.
However, based on data observed in real time, Grupo Bancolombia analysts believe that last year’s drop may have been less than previously thought.
The NowCast index, which is measured by Bancolombia, indicates that in the fourth quarter of 2020 the productive activity presented an annual variation in the range of between -5.7 and -2.9 percent, with an average value of -4.3 percent. hundred.
Thus, with these results, the estimated change in productive activity for the entire 2020 is -7 percent and not -7.5 percent, as they had been calculating.
ECONOMY AND BUSINESS
Also find in Economics:
-The Opec agrees to limit oil production in February and March
-Cadastral appraisals will have an adjustment of 3 percent this year
-The country started the year with increases of 1.97 percent in fees and fines
