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The better gradual pace that the economy has taken after the reopening of various productive activities continues to be seen in reductions in the unemployment rate, to such an extent that in October the unemployment rate of 14.7 percent stood at 2.5 percentage points from the level it showed in February (12.2 percent).
Amid the improvement, analysts and union leaders point out that the country still faces the challenge not only of returning to pre-pandemic levels, but of continuing to lower the indicator, since in any case it is still well above what was seen a year ago, when in October 2019 the unemployment level was 9.8 percent, and much further from the minimum of the last 20 years, which occurred in November 2015, when unemployment was 7.3 percent.
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According to Dane, the 14.7 percent unemployment rate in October is already well below the 21.4 percent registered in May, when it peaked after restrictions on activity due to the pandemic.
The entity’s indicator means that, with respect to April, the first full month of confinement, And when the number of people working reached its minimum, 4.7 million jobs have already been recovered.
Indeed, in April the bottom was reached, with only 16.5 million people working, while by October 21.27 million individuals were already employed, down by 1.53 million people working compared to those who had been working ago. one year in October, but 731,000 of those that were occupied in February of this year.
According to the entity’s figures, compared to September, a million jobs were recovered, since that month there were 19.2 million people employed. However, compared to October 2019 there are 1.5 million fewer employed people (a variation of -6.7 percent). That month, 22.8 million people were working in Colombia.
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When reviewing the statistics of the type of employment, the Dane showed that in October the self-employed, among which are the self-employed who contribute and the informal, reached 9.6 million people, for an increase of 29.9 per percent compared to the 7.4 million reported in April.
But, at the same time, formal employment, judging by the figures of private workers and the Government, also had an important increase, of 1.7 million jobs, when the number of employed rose from 7.1 million in April to 8.8 million, for an increase of 23.7 percent compared to the fourth month of the year.
Focus of attention
For Sergio Olarte, chief economist at Scotiabank Colpatria, despite the gradual improvement, one must look carefully at the figures, because the improvement is showing that informality is gaining between two and three percentage points compared to the previous level of the pandemic.
And emphasizes that “Structurally, we are seeing an important change in how employment is behaving, because people who work independently or on their own are the ones who are getting the most jobs at this time.”
According to BBVA analysts, between February and October there was an increase in the proportion of non-salaried workers in total, which went from 56.4 percent in the quarter ended in February to 58.2 percent in the quarter August October.
In addition, according to Olarte, the economic activities that continued to be most affected in October were education, health, commerce, and hotels and tourism, as well as auto parts, a line that had not deteriorated.
And it is also being noticed that the people who are leaving the labor market the most are those who have a low level of education or are illiterate, showing that inequality, in terms of income and education, is increasing, as well as gender.
“The greatest impact on women in the pandemic is of concern. In 2019 the difference in unemployment rates between men and women was 5.5 points and in October it widened to 9.4 points. Additionally, there is a loss of employment at the level of the least educated, those who have been in the labor market for more years and in units of 10 workers or less, “they added from BBVA.
Therefore, the analysts of this entity expect that employment will continue to increase and that the unemployed will continue to decline, But at ever slower rates, it will take time for the unemployment rate to reach pre-pandemic levels.
Productivity negative in 2020
This Monday began the negotiation for the increase in the minimum wage of 2021, with the first session of the Commission for the Agreement on Labor and Wage Policies, which analyzed productivity statistics and those provided by Dane, such as inflation, the behavior of the productive sector and unemployment.
At the meeting, which was attended by technicians from Dane, from the Ministries of Labor and Finance and National Planning, it was known that the productivity figure during 2020 was negative, falling 0.6 percent.
At the meeting, the figure, one of the key inputs for the process, was also revealed to the negotiating parties, since they were also economic experts from unions and unions.
The second technical meeting prior to the formal negotiation is expected to take place this Tuesday.
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ECONOMY AND BUSINESS
TIME
