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NIKOLAI VITANOV
“The biggest pressure will probably be the first half of December,” Professor Nikolay Vitanov from the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, a mathematician at the National Operations Headquarters, told BNR. He recalled that at the beginning of September he had defined October as the transition month and November as the critical month, laying the foundations for what will be in winter:
“If we don’t take action now, December will be difficult and January and February will be too.” He stressed that our health care system can no longer cover the growing number of patients.
“The capacity of our health system, the RHI, is to detect the contact of some 2,000 new cases a day. When cases cross this line, control becomes very difficult and no matter how great the discipline and the good health system, the virus spreads. Therefore, it is good to know this limit and to strive to keep the number of new cases below it. If it is above it, this virus has shown that it can destroy any healthcare system, even the American one, “explained Prof. Vitanov.
He was adamant that if the measures are strictly observed, the number of new cases will drop to 800 cases in about two weeks, but in the winter it will be no less than that.
According to the professor, the virus’s time is running out because information about successful vaccine trials is multiplying. It recommended that reasonable means be used to pass the period until the finished vaccine is available with few casualties.
“It is better to stay healthy until the vaccine arrives. If the vaccines come out fast enough, a large part of the population may not encounter the coronavirus,” he said.
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