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We are currently in a phase of health crisis. There are already results of the measurements: we were in exponential growth, now we have an average weekly decrease of around 25 percent in the new officially announced cases of coronavirus infection. This was explained to BNR by mathematician Lachezar Tomov, professor at the Department of Informatics at the New Bulgarian University.
However, there is no decrease in the number of people hospitalized and in intensive care units. The average age of new patients has increased by 8 years, doubling and tripling the risk and more people will go to intensive care units, Tomov said.
We are going down slowly because of the uneven application of the rules in the different settlements, thinks the mathematician. According to Lachezar Tomov, against the background of the small decline, the upcoming holidays may again lead to an increase in cases.
“Gathering up to ten people is still a lot, because there will be hundreds of thousands of meetings of this type. “Successful countries in an epidemic locally close everything to break the curve,” Tomov said.
According to him, we should open in January and if we manage to vaccinate 1 million people by March-April, this will greatly reduce the spread of the virus, subject to certain measures. This is called early herd immunity, explained the teacher.
In Germany they are doing a total blockade from December 16 to January 10 to start vaccination with the idea that people will go to sea in August, he gave an example. If we can tolerate some time, if we can toughen up for a month and then move on to the immunization phase, we can have a normal summer, predicts Lachezar Tomov.
Vaccines even before computers and technology are at the heart of the modern way of life, the mathematician emphasized.
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