Professor Vitanov announced when the end of the pandemic – Diseases

There is a system of criteria from which restrictive measures are determined. You can see that the measures are working. This was stated by the mathematician of the National Operational Headquarters Prof. Nikolay Vitanov in the “Face to Face” program on BTV.

“The calculations are based on a number representing the carrying capacity of the environment. According to him, we were not very infected in March. The number was very low. We kept it until June. We had a peak on St. George’s Day. Then the measures were loosened and that number jumped from 5,000 infected to 5 million. Since the beginning of June, we have entered a stage of spread of the virus, which we are in until now. As they say, we have released carp, “he explained.

“Once the vaccine arrives, the numbers will begin to decrease. The COVID-19 epidemic will be difficult and limited. This is not the herd immunity that they told us about, and that cannot be achieved, with the vaccine it is achieved” , assured the mathematician.

Prof. Vitanov with a new forecast for the development of COVID-19 in the country

Professor Vitanov predicts that if active cases drop below 100, we will deal with the virus. In addition, the health system will rest and there will be no additional impact on the economy. If 30% of the population is vaccinated, it will begin to be felt. Vaccines are good. The difficulties are technological, but refrigerators have already been found. I am not at risk and if I wait my turn for the vaccine, it will last until June-July. I will have to look for connections ”, joked Professor Vitanov.

“There are many things that need to be analyzed after this pandemic, for example why mortality is so high, we have to organize our health system. These pandemics will continue to exist, there is nothing to lie about. We need to organize ourselves. The Bulgarian people He is sick and needs to be organized. Pay attention to prevention, “he emphasized.

“Schools were closed not so much out of necessity, but because of pressure from certain circles. I approve of the proposal to renew the normal way of educating young children, as they are a very small risk group,” said Professor Nikolay Vitanov.

The mathematician from NIGHT also explained the situation in the country: “Currently, for every three registered cases, there is one unregistered. To be clear, if we take the data, we can multiply it by 4 to find out how many are infected, with whom. “One in 20 has found the virus and is at risk of infection. So wearing a protective mask is a good idea,” he said.

According to him, the optimistic prognosis for the development of the virus comes with the application of the vaccine. “In 7-8 months this problem will be so small that we will not talk about it. In 5-6 months the massive vaccine will begin and it will be felt. At the end of the year we will have treated the medical part”, predicts the prof. Vitanov.