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Petar Velkov is a teacher, starting with the “Together in Class” program, and then training teachers at the Institute for Progressive Education. Master in Public Administration, where he outlines his master’s thesis and research in the field of educational management, mathematician and expert in crisis management.
In front of “Monitor” He commented on the partial blockade in our country and how effective it will be, as well as when the deaths from coronavirus in our country will decrease.
Read the full interview:
– Mr Velkov, there was a lot of debate about whether stricter measures should really be introduced, but they are already a fact. Were they necessary and will they have the effect of limiting the spread of COVID-19, given that we once again have a mortality record?
– Absolutely. The measures were urgent and even if they had been taken three weeks earlier, many lives would have been saved. But sadly, many lives will still be lost as mortality increases in the next two weeks. The reason is that it is retrospective and people who were infected about 21 days ago are losing their lives.
So there was no way not to tighten the measures. When a pandemic grows diffusely and spreads on such a scale, no country can get by without a lockdown. This has been proven everywhere. You have seen that many countries have taken stricter measures, even at lower levels.
– At this moment we are in a partial blockade, it is not even complete, does that not put the results in doubt?
– Actually, we don’t have a complete lockdown. There are countries with much stricter measures. So it is debatable what the results will be. The question is how we will follow the rules and how the state will control them, because for me there are some controversial issues. I’ll give you an example: for me, this is the opportunity to bring 15 people together for private parties.
This is not a small number of people and given the mechanisms in our country, for me this is a gap. And we as a society have shown that we are irresponsible. This is one of the reasons for the private closure, because, on the one hand, you have an irresponsible society and, on the other, a country that does not manage the pandemic.
Another key element is that nothing is said about the companies and workshops, but it is a public secret that there is a high incidence and the measures are not observed, positive cases are hidden.
The reason is the desire to keep these jobs, but nothing is said about their control. And these are groups that spread the virus at a rapid rate.
Also, we may not visit restaurants, but if we meet again at home in large groups, the situation will not change. If we do not drastically limit our contacts, the measures will not work.
– When can there be a decrease in cases of infection?
– First, there will be a decrease in the next 10 days, but as a result of the halftones that were taken earlier. I mean, 40% of the students were online at the same time, and that would have some impact.
The other reason is the change in people’s behavior: maybe at least 15-20% of society has started to believe that there is a virus and to follow the measures, and this is a key factor.
– Only now will there be an effect that high school students were released to study online a few weeks ago?
– Exactly. But the effect will not be drastic, because then they met in shopping malls. Not to mention that the moment students return to school, we will witness a new leap. There is no way to get results if the bars are open and the schools are closed or vice versa.
But as I said, now we must have the effect of these first measures, then in another 14-21 days, there will be a greater effect than the current stricter measures. But it depends on our behavior, as well as on state control.
In 21 days we will see, I hope, a drastic change in the number of deaths. Now there will be high levels of morbidity, hospitalizations, deaths and only after some time a decrease in positive cases and finally deaths. There are epidemiological cycles that you must go through and see the results of the measurements. This can also be seen in Europe.
– Does this show the experience of others? It takes at least three weeks for the measures to take effect, right?
– Yes, but a lot depends on the type of measures and how they are applied. However, you can’t see results before at least two weeks have passed, even 14 to 28 days. These are two cycles.
– However, many people do not believe that it is necessary to tighten, because after the dissolution we will see a drastic jump again, right?
– It is clear that the measures had to be tightened, because the health system is not going to last. And the increase in mortality is incredibly high, 1800 is the excess mortality according to the NSI data compared to the last 5 years.
This is an extremely high number. And these are the data from pedi two weeks ago, from COVID and for other reasons. But there are probably unrecorded deaths from coronavirus, but that does not mean that it is covering up, but because when an epidemic gets out of control, people do not have access to treatment. There are many places where they cannot even be tested.
Another reason is secondary mortality from COVID-19, and here again we are talking about untimely access to treatment. But since the hospitals are exhausted, it will turn out that soon there will be no one to attend to us. History has shown that these measures are the only thing that works. And to those who doubt, I can tell you that everything depends on your performance and the responsibility of society.
Viral behavior is clear, but the question is how we respond. It is important that, as citizens, we comply with various work measures. The other thing is for the state to develop an effective testing system. In my opinion, the tests should increase dramatically and there should be more investigation, as well as follow-up and quarantine.
These are three key elements of the system that are absolutely sufficient to generate results, but linked to the behavior of citizens. These things do not limit the way of life that much, but if observed, they can have an effect. Some countries have shown it. In some cases, some may have reached a confinement, but that does not mean that they are dictatorships.
There are examples, there is a correct model, if we follow it, we can have an effect. We complain that we do not want masks, the state, on the other hand, does not impose significant crisis management and, at the same time, it bothers us that we are in a partial lockdown.
There is no way things happen, you need personal and collective responsibility. Another key thing is the introduction of a tracking application, it is used in many countries. It is typical of much of Europe, it is largely anonymous and supports the institutions.
But if it is introduced in our country, surely many Bulgarians will think that they will almost follow them and will again see a conspiracy in this.
And this is a measure imposed in some of the most democratic countries. It will provide the opportunity to track and quarantine people, understand who is most at risk, track processes, groups, even facilitate the work of RHI and contribute to scientific information.
This will make the pandemic better controlled. Another measure is to reduce the fine for not wearing masks, and here I mean that quite seriously. At the moment there are 300 levs, but in general, how many people have it and how many have paid for it? Therefore, in my opinion, it is better if the penalty is less, say BGN 30, but imposed on all violators. It is better to punish a person 10 times with 30 leva than once with 300 leva. This will increase the control mechanisms.
– Is there still a mathematical model that shows when the pandemic can end or is it impossible without a vaccine? Can predictions be made in this direction?
– There is no way to end without a vaccine. The other option is to comply with the measures. Many countries have eliminated the virus to 0, such as China. Then they close the borders. Here I am not referring to prohibiting free movement, but to quarantine those who enter a country for 14 days. This ensures that there is no outside interference. Tests are also very important here, without them you cannot control a pandemic.
– Are rapid tests a solution?
– Rapid antigens: yes, but not the rapid blood we had before. However, antigens are positive and we must take them into account. The incidence is 3 to 8 times higher in our society, so we cannot register them. The PCR test should also be increased 2-3 times.
There is no way to say that we will necessarily open the country on December 21. There must be a clear plan and criteria, if the measures work, only then will some loosening begin.
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