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© Reuters
Voters at a Joe Biden rally in Detroit.
Unprecedented in U.S. history, more than 92 million people voted in Saturday’s presidential election, while polls show Democrat Joe Biden’s lead in some of the most controversial states is waning for President Donald Trump. .
One of the reasons Americans vote early, by mail or in person, is their fear of crowding in front of polling stations on Election Day, November 3. The pandemic is also the number one concern for Americans, studies for weeks have shown. But leading is seen as activating Democratic supporters who are determined to remove Trump from the White House and Republicans from Congress and the Senate in Washington.
The result is that three days before Election Day, nearly 65% of all those who ran in the elections four years ago cast their votes.
Joe Biden continues to lead if all of his followers gather in the country. But Trump began narrowing the gap in several faltering states, making the 2016 scenario more likely to repeat itself. At the time, nearly 3 million Americans liked Hillary Clinton more, but she convincingly won enough seats. in the Electoral College, which was finally determined in December by any president of the United States. Democrats have never won the White House in decades without winning a national vote.
“If we win Pennsylvania, it’s over,” Trump said at a large rally in the state on Saturday.
Data released Sunday by Reuters and the Washington Post showed that Biden was losing his strategic leadership in Pennsylvania and was now in statistical error. Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona don’t have a clear voter favorite. The New York Times interprets the data in a study commissioned by Siena College as Biden’s “clear advantage” in Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona and Wisconsin.
A Reuters / Ipsos poll from Oct. 27-29 shows the Democratic nominee is 51 percent nationwide, compared with 43 percent supporting Trump, a proportion that has been relatively constant in recent months.
This study gives Trump a gap of 5 points in Pennsylvania and 9 points in Michigan and Wisconsin. The point is that the president can afford to lose the second and third estates if he wins the others he won in 2016.
The question is whether there are enough undecided voters left for Trump to fight and what is the impact of issues on which the president is deemed stronger than the contender. Today, only 6% of those who said they would likely vote have yet to make their choice, and four years ago their number was three times higher.
Sociologists say Trump is losing the support of two key groups behind him in 2016: white Americans who graduated before college and adults. It seems that many women are abandoning it: if Hillary Clinton had a 15-point lead among educated white women, now Biden’s lead is 27 points. At the same time, Americans who did not vote 4 years ago became more active.
More than three-quarters of adults polled by Reuters / Ipsos say they are personally concerned about the health crisis and nearly 60% disapprove of the way the president has responded. Biden is considered the best leader to tackle the pandemic, and about 30 percent of Americans say that is what dictates their options.
Trump remains in a better position to work with the economy, but the issue has slipped from their leadership positions: Only 21% say they are more interested in who will act decisively to improve their economic situation and create jobs.
The president has been unable to shake off accusations of an economic slowdown and unemployment caused by the pandemic. Nearly half of presumptive voters in three contested states – Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina – blame closed schools and businesses for “weak leadership and the decisions of President Trump.”
One of the most striking examples is what happened to voters over 55: in 2016, in this group, the president led 14 points over Clinton, today Biden is 4 points ahead. Support for Trump among Americans with no higher education has nearly halved: in 2016, his lead in this group was 30 percentage points, now it is 18.
“Trump has never tried to broaden the reach of the people who would support him – this is typical of his entire presidency, not just the election campaign,” Alex Conant, a Republican political strategist, told Reuters. “His theory is that there is no need for that, because independent voters who preferred him to Hillary will back him once again against any liberal Democrat.”
A Mediacom poll for the Des Moines Register on Saturday showed this seems to work for him in Iowa. Although the poll base is small, just 814 people, it shows that Biden is losing the support of the majority of independent voters and Trump has a 7 point lead.
