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Photograph by KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI / AFP via Getty Images
Bloomberg reported Thursday that defense and aerospace business giant Boeing is unplugging its iconic double-decker 747 jumbo jet. It is a decision that has taken a long time to arrive. But it is not a surprise. The move was a fait accompli due to the advancement of technology.
Boeing (ticker: BA), however, is not yet done with the plane. “At a construction speed of half a plane per month, the 747-8 program has more than two years of production ahead of it,” said a Boeing spokesperson. Barron’s. “We will continue to make the right decisions to keep the production line healthy and meet customer needs.”
Still, the “dash 8” 747, as it is known in the language of the industry, the current model of the 747 aircraft, has only about 13 aircraft in the pipeline. Not much compared to the more than 1,500 jumbo jets that Boeing has delivered over time.
Some of those first 747 jets were delivered to Aer Lingus in 1970. These jets were powered by four engines manufactured by the Pratt & Whitney division of Raytheon Technologies (RTX). Over time, 747 aircraft have been powered by engines manufactured by General Electric (GE) and Rolls-Royce (RR. London) as well.
But four-engine jumbo jets will become an increasingly rare sight in the skies. “The passenger version was killed by the new big twins [engine jets] many years ago, “says Teal Group aerospace consultant Richard Aboluafia Barron’s. “So goodbye to the old queen.”
Airbus (AIR.France) wiped out its four double-decker engines in 2019: the massive A380. Airbus hoped to deliver 1,200 jumbo jets over time. It will end up delivering less than 300. The giant aircraft market simply collapsed.
Technology, as Aboluafia says, is what catalyzed the extinction of jumbos. The 747 and A380 were designed in a different aerospace paradigm, where longer distances required larger aircraft with more engines to carry more people on board to justify flight routes.
An early 747 has a range of approximately 6,000 nautical miles. That’s about 6,900 conventional miles. (A nautical mile is related to the circumference of land and sea navigation. A regular land mile was originally approximately 1,000 steps.) An early 737, on the other hand, had a range of approximately 2,000 nautical miles.
The new 737 aircraft can fly roughly 3,500 nautical miles, a 75% improvement. A new 747 model can reach approximately 7,700 miles away, an improvement of approximately 30%.
Additionally, an older 777 aircraft was designed with a range of 5,200 nautical miles. Newer versions can reach 8,500 nautical miles. That’s over 60% improvement. Engine technology is a big reason, but there have been other advances.
Composite materials have also helped. The 787 was the first commercial aircraft with a hull made primarily of carbon fiber. A 787 can fly around 7,500 nautical miles. That’s almost a 90% improvement over the comparable and older 767 model jets that the 787 is replacing.
Four engines have become unnecessary and relatively more expensive to operate.
The news from the 747 doesn’t really affect Boeing’s actions. It has nothing to do with the current pandemic, although the air cargo markets have been hit by the Covid-induced economic downturn. Many 747 aircraft have reached cargo markets.
The news also does not affect the FAA or 737 MAX recertification. It is good for investors, or anyone interested in the aerospace industry, to understand the legacy of an iconic aircraft.
The 737 MAX has been installed worldwide since mid-March 2019 after two fatal accidents, linked to the same cause, in five months. The FAA this week completed MAX test flights, an important step in returning the plane to commercial service.
Boeing shares fell approximately 44% to date, worse than comparable returns for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the same span. The pandemic has seriously damaged the demand for commercial air travel. Passengers traveling in the US are down approximately 80% in the past week.
Write to Al Root at [email protected]
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