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Newly elected US President Joe Biden has said that the rules of international negotiations are breaking down. He has promised to restore America’s image and said he will do so soon.
“There is no time to waste,” Biden wrote in a foreign policy magazine. One of Biden’s longest lists rejoins the Iran nuclear deal. The agreement, called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA, was signed in 2015.
The agreement was aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program. It was signed by Iran, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council: China, Russia, France, Great Britain, the United States, Germany and the European Union.
The deal is considered one of the successes of Donald Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama in the White House. But shortly after President Trump came to power after winning the 2016 election, he took the initiative to cancel the deal and eventually withdrew the United States from the deal in May 2016, despite the other parties’ objections to the deal.
President Trump did not stop there. On the contrary, it has done everything possible to destroy the entire agreement. For the next two years, President Trump has put maximum pressure on Iran. It has imposed new prohibitions. But even then it was not possible to suppress Iran. Rather, they have come closer to achieving the technologies necessary to make nuclear weapons.
Will Joe Biden be able to reverse the situation after taking office in January? Will it be possible for him to do that today and in America’s divided politics? This question comes back now.
Anise Basiri Tabrizi, an Iran expert at the Royal United Services Institute, says Biden’s strategy is very clear. But it won’t be easy to do.
If you decide to continue with the sanctions that have been imposed on Iran for the past two years, you may reap some additional benefits. It has yet to comment on the matter. He simply said that under the agreement, Iran has to comply with certain issues. As Joe Biden wrote in January, Tehran must strictly abide by the agreement.
But forcing Iran to do so is now a huge challenge for the United States. Because after the Trump administration pulled out of the deal, Iran started going back to its own business.
The UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which oversees its nuclear program, said in its latest report that Iran had obtained 12 times more uranium than allowed in the agreement.
The agency says it has begun enriching uranium beyond what it was allowed to do. A small amount of enriched uranium is used for civil purposes, but if its purity is high, it could be used to make atomic bombs, which is a matter of concern in the West.
But Iranian officials have repeatedly said they could revert to the old deal if necessary. But the progress they will make in the investigation cannot be erased. “We cannot go back,” the former Iranian ambassador told the UN nuclear watchdog.
“Now we go from one point to another and we are in this place right now,” he said. Iran has handled President Trump’s storm. Now they have their own demands. Iranian officials say lifting the sanctions will not be enough in the current situation.
Iran hopes to make up for the economic losses it has suffered as a result of the two-and-a-half-year embargo. Iran will hold presidential elections in June next year. Earlier, the reformist and radical camps began to articulate their positions on the issue.
President Hassan Rouhani’s popularity has plummeted due to the deteriorating economic situation in Iran. Will Joe Biden try to increase President Rouhani’s chances by easing sanctions now?
Naser Hadian-Jazzy, a political scientist at the University of Tehran, said Joe Biden needed to clarify his position before taking office. He will have to say in an official message that he will return to the JCPOA agreement very soon without any conditions. That will be enough.
He says that if Biden does not do so, Iran, the United States and the conspirators in the region could create problems in restoring relations between the two countries by the agreement.
But keep in mind that Joe Biden’s ability to do anything here may be limited. Opposition to the JCPOA agreement in the United States is completely divided. Most Republicans oppose the deal.
What the balance of power in Washington will be and how independent the new administration can become depends on the outcome of the rest of the Senate elections in January.
The JCPOA agreement was never a bilateral agreement. The other countries involved have a role to play in determining its future.
Especially the European countries that have signed the agreement are very concerned about this. The UK, France and Germany have done their best to keep the deal alive during the Trump administration. As a result, the three countries could play a key role in agreeing on America’s return to the treaty.
However, many in London, Paris and Berlin feel that the world situation is no longer what it used to be and that the old agreement is unlikely to be reversed.
Anise Basiri Tabrizi noted that the three European countries are now pushing for a post-JCPOA deal. He says any such deal would be aimed at limiting Iran’s regional activities and its nuclear program, including the development of ballistic missiles. Because the current contract is coming to an end.
Some regional powers, especially those that were opposed to the JCPOA, such as Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, have recently signed some agreements to normalize relations.
These deals have been mediated by the Trump administration. As a result, it will be difficult to ignore what these countries want. At a seminar at the Tel Aviv University Institute for National Security Studies, Youssef Al Otaiba, the UAE’s ambassador to Washington, said: “If we want to compromise our security, we have to go there.”
His words echoed the words of Amos Yadlin, the director of the institute. “Israel wants to be in that discussion with our other allies in the Middle East,” he said.
King Salman of Saudi Arabia has also called on the international community to take a tougher stance against Iran.
It will not be easy for the new president Joe Biden to return to the agreement reached with Iran, taking these views and positions seriously. The diplomacy of matching the demands of all parties will be as difficult for him as matching the Rubik’s Cube.
It should not be forgotten that the term of his predecessor Donald Trump has not yet expired. Last week, Trump spoke to his advisers about an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. But advisers have prevented him from doing so.
But despite the electoral defeat, Donald Trump has ignored international norms and imposed new sanctions on Iran, threatening to impose more.
But whatever Trump does before leaving power in January, it is clear that he will try to make things more difficult for Joe Biden. As a result, it is not possible to say with certainty what the United States will do with Iran during this period.
TTN
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