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The Saudi leadership, especially the country’s most powerful crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, known as MBS, is going through uncomfortable times.
The prince’s popularity in Saudi Arabia remains intact, but he has yet to allay suspicions about his alleged involvement in the 2016 assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
Meanwhile, as the new administration in the United States prepares to take over the White House, President-elect Joe Biden has made it clear that he will take a tougher line on some Saudi issues than his predecessor.
What are these issues and why are they important to those in power in the United States and Saudi Arabia?
The war in Yemen
This war is a disaster for almost all parties to the conflict, especially for the poor and malnourished population of Yemen.
Saudi Arabia did not start the war, the Houthis did when they launched an operation in the capital, Sanaa, in late 2014 to topple the legitimate government. The Houthis are a tribal group in the mountains of northern Yemen and make up less than 15 percent of the country’s population.
In March 2015, when MBS was Saudi Defense Minister, he secretly formed an alliance with several Arab states to launch massive airstrikes in Yemen. They expected the Houthis to surrender in a few months to the attack.
But after nearly six years of fighting that left thousands dead and many displaced, the Saudi-led coalition has been unable to drive the Houthis out of the western town of Sanaa and Yemen. Both parties have committed war crimes in these six years.
In cooperation with Iran, the Houthis have been increasingly launching precision-guided missiles and explosive drones aimed at Saudi Arabia. Their missiles have even reached Jeddah and have been able to reach oil facilities.
In terms of money, the stalemate has become costly for the Saudis and many peace plans have collapsed. Many Yemenis have lost their lives in the Yemen war, but the Saudis have had to pay a heavy price for this bloodshed. In addition, they have been read outside the country in the face of enormous criticism.
The Saudis want a way out of this stalemate that at least protects their faces. But the Saudis have already said they will “stop building a stronghold of Iran on its southern border.” They have insisted that they will never allow Iranian-backed armed militias to control power in Yemen.
But the days when the Saudis continued the war are ending.
At the end of his term in 2016, Barack Obama significantly reduced US aid to Saudi Arabia. But after Donald Trump came to power, he reversed that and the United States gave Riyadh all the intelligence and military equipment it wanted. Now Mr. Biden’s administration has indicated that this assistance may be suspended.
Either way, the pressure is mounting now to end this war.
Boycott of Qatar
Apparently, this problem appears to have been resolved behind the scenes thanks to long-standing Kuwaiti mediation. But deep down, the roots of this problem run much deeper.
Within days of President Trump’s 2018 visit to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt joined forces to launch a devastating boycott against their Gulf neighbor Qatar.
Their argument was that the actions of groups that Qatar supports Islamists fall into the category of terrorism, and this is unacceptable.
The UAE has released documents relating to suspected terrorists living in Qatar, but Qatar has denied any involvement in terrorism and refused to comply with the four-nation alliance’s demand to control its established and well-known television channel Al Jazeera. .
Like the Houthis in Yemen, the Saudis had a false expectation that the Qataris would give in to pressure and submit to their will. They did not take it. This is in part because Qatar has enormous resources. Qatar’s coastal oil production is huge, and Qatar’s investment in the British economy alone is £ 40bn (£ 53bn), backed by Turkey and Iran.
As a result, in recent years a huge dividing line has been created in the Middle East.
On one side are three conservative Sunni Persian Gulf monarchies: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, along with their ally Egypt.
On the other side, there are Qatar, Turkey and the politically Islamic movements they support, such as the Muslim Brotherhood and the Hamas group in Gaza.
And those interim movement groups don’t like the four-nation alliance because they see it as a threat to their very existence.
But there is no doubt that the policy of boycotting Qatar for three and a half years has hurt both sides economically and politically.
Furthermore, what has come to light is that the ideology of Arab solidarity in the Gulf region really does not make sense. And it comes at a time when concerns about Iran’s nuclear and missile programs among Gulf Arab leaders are mounting.
Jared Kushner has traveled to the Gulf region as President Trump’s envoy to push for a deal. And the Biden administration will undoubtedly want a solution to this problem. Another reason is that al-Udaid in Qatar has the largest Pentagon military base abroad.
But the most important thing is the implementation of the solution that can be solved through mediation.
Qatar may take many years to forgive its neighbors. And, on the other hand, it may take many years for these four countries to regain trust in Qatar.
Captive women
This is a major setback for the Saudi leadership’s campaign to improve its international image.
Thirteen female Saudi activists have been jailed. And some of them have been accused of torturing someone. They demand the right of women to drive and want an end to the “extreme injustice” of being under male guardianship.
Many of them, including the best-known inmate, Luzain al-Hathlul, were arrested in 2016, just before the lifting of the ban on driving for women.
Saudi officials still allege that Luzain al-Hathloul was convicted of espionage and that he “received money from foreign powers.”
His friends say he went abroad to attend a human rights conference and applied for a job at the United Nations.
Her family said that she had been beaten while in custody, given electric shocks and threatened to rape her. And the last time his family visited him in jail, he was shaking violently, unable to control himself.
Like the war in Yemen, the Saudi leadership has dug its own grave and is now looking for a way out.
These women have been detained for a long time without evidence. As a result, the only way for the Saudis to get out of this murky situation is to “be generous and show forgiveness.”
The idea is that the new Biden administration will raise this issue with the Saudis.
Source: BBC
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