“If the situation worsens, as many as 75,000 people a day can be infected.”

Professor Abul Kalam Azad, director general of the health department, said they had an analysis that if the situation worsened, 75,000 people could become infected every day.

He said the government has relaxed the blockade after reviewing the situation. However, he added that the blockade could be tightened again if the situation worsens.

This has been said in a BBC report.

According to the report, while coronavirus infection is on the rise in Bangladesh, the effectiveness of the blockade has been questioned as businesses have been opened in various fields after the clothing factory opened.

Due to economic pressure from the government, it is not possible to keep it limited, even if there is talk of starting a limited number of factories or industrial businesses.

Experts say the collapse has put thousands of people at risk for infection. They also considered that it was not possible to provide adequate treatment to deal with the situation.

So what is the path for Bangladesh now or is there any path open? These questions are being discussed now.

The issue of limited scope remains unresolved. The reality is that almost all clothing owners have started their own factories.

There has been much debate about the unimaginable scene of thousands of workers running to Dhaka from different parts of the country during the opening of the factories.

Many factory workers are now at risk for coronavirus infection.

But the government’s thinking was not limited to opening clothes.

Attempts are being made to quickly initiate diversified economic activities by opening one factory and commercial or commercial establishment after another.

Nazneen Ahmed, principal investigator for government research firm BIDS, said there was no alternative but to start economic activities now. But he felt the need to plan without rushing.

‘There is no way to separate life and livelihood under any circumstances now. If I say save lives only, how do I do it, billions of people, how do I provide food for so many people? So if I think about that place, I have to go into economic activity. ‘

But researcher Nazneen Ahmed believes that planning was necessary.

“How far I go from confinement to economic activity will depend on whether I have the health benefits to manage the additional health risks I have created as a result of starting economic activities, or in other words, increased coronary heart disease.” It was necessary.

“The problem is that after a month and a half, at the rate we want to open now, we have not increased our ability to manage health risks,” he said.

Is the loose blockage due to stress?
Following the blockade for almost a month and a half, the demand for livelihoods of low-income people, including workers, was creating pressure. Furthermore, pressure from various sectors, including clothing owners, was a big problem for the government.

Under pressure from various Islamist organizations, prayers in the mosque have also been opened for the faithful on the condition that they follow the rules of hygiene.

There seems to be an environment where everything is happening.

With the increase in traffic and people, the capital’s highways seem to be returning to their former busy state.

Nadira Parveen, a professor at the Bangladesh University of Health Sciences, said efforts are being made to normalize the situation, even if there was an opportunity to take more time.

‘Now that the infection increases day by day, it should have taken a little longer. Now is not the time to open it all up.

The government had no choice but to relax the blockade in several cases. Many ministers, including the trade minister, have made such statements.

But keeping people at home is considered one of the ways to prevent coronavirus infection.

Many experts are skeptical of the government’s move to ease the blockage amid the risk of infection.

What could be the way if the lock is broken and the infection is blocked?
Professor ABM Abdullah, adviser to the National Committee for the Prevention of Coronavirus, said that since then economic activity has been mobilized. Now that the impact has increased, he believes there will be no choice but to impose a strict blockade and even a curfew if necessary.

‘Now the risk of crown increases day by day. In this case, the lock has been relaxed. Now it is the administrative decision of the government. They may have relaxed the blockage by further considering the economic aspect. However, with conditions. But the fear is that if the number of victims increases, I will be at risk. ”

Professor Abdullah added: ‘We should think twice about taking risks. I’m even saying that since the blockage has relaxed, and it does show that the infection is increasing again. So you have to give a very strict lock again. This should be done if necessary.

Suggestions for a curfew in the event of a severe blockade again: What does the government think?
Professor Abul Kalam Azad, director general of the health department, said the government had reviewed the situation and relaxed the closure. However, he added that the blockade could be tightened again if the situation worsens.

‘Since economic activity has stopped due to the blockade, especially low-income people who eat day after day, their work will stop. How long can everything stop like this? Therefore, after discussing all levels of government together, it has been thought that we are relaxing a little. Of course, with this relaxation, people should be careful and we are giving them that advice. “

“In addition to facilitating the blockade, we will control the situation,” he said. If the number of infections increases too much, the lock should be tightened again. We think the government is aware of that. “

One of the ways to prevent coronavirus is when the blockage is loose. So the infection can go wrong: this idea is also in the government.

But there are also many questions about how much medical care has been taken to deal with the disaster.

Since the beginning of the situation, there have been many complaints about insufficient evidence and limited treatments.

Dr. Bay-Nazir Ahmed, former director of the Department of Health’s Division of Disease Control, said he did not have the ability to diagnose and treat the condition if the infection increased at a high rate.

‘Speaking of testing ability first, we were calculating that 50,000 tests were needed every day. Even if 20 thousand can be made there. But in reality there are deficits. And when it comes to treatment, we have a long way to go. If there is an infection, the demand for hospitalization will also increase proportionally. There is no system in Bangladesh to handle that. ‘

There is also talk of whether it will be possible to cope with the pressure using all 1,200 ICUs in public and private hospitals.

“If the situation worsens, as many as 75,000 people a day can be infected.”

Professor Abul Kalam Kalam Azad said they have an analysis that if the situation worsens, around 75,000 people could become infected every day.

‘Our public health experts have given us two types of analysis. His analysis is that if the situation is very bad, a maximum of 75,000 people could become infected in a single day. If we take that into account, but a fifth of it may need to be hospitalized. If that happened, we would have to admit 12 to 13 thousand people to the hospital. ‘

“We have enough beds in many hospitals at the moment,” he said. Recently, medical protocol has also changed a bit. For example, for many patients, even if there were no symptoms and no medication was required, we kept them in the hospital until they became negative.

“There is a change in protocol now that if no medication is needed for three consecutive days and the patient is fine, he can be discharged,” said Professor Abul Kalam Kalam Azad.

‘Additionally, we are building a 2,000-bed isolation hospital at the Bashundhara Convention Center. In this way, we believe that we will be able to run the medical system without problems. ‘

There are limitations in the treatment of coronavirus in the country. But the blockade has been relaxed. In that context, some analysts speak of tough immunity.

If a population can be vaccinated in a certain proportion and the infection stops in that community. So it’s called tough immunity.

And before the vaccine was invented, about 60 to 70 percent of the population would have to be infected to develop a naturally strong immune system. This greatly increases the risk of death.

Virology professor Nazrul Islam, a member of the government’s technical committee on coronaviruses, said there was less risk of developing tough immunity from the vaccine. However, he thinks that the situation that is being created in Bangladesh by giving up everything may naturally depend on a tough immunity.

However, since the vaccine has not yet arrived, it would be wrong to consider the problem of building natural hard immunity in Bangladesh as a solution, said Professor Saifullah Munshi, chairman of the department of virology at Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University.

“Our shutdown is already over. As a result, even if we think about hard immunity, all the countries that are working or thinking about it don’t say publicly or scientifically that hard immunity is working.”

He added: “If tough immunity is to develop, between 60 and 70 percent of the population will be affected. Then the number of deaths will increase, the number of hospital admissions will increase. However, our health system is not ready for so many patients and so many deaths. I think we’re actually moving into a black hole, into an unknown destination. ‘

Professor ABM Abdullah also thinks that it would be wrong to rely on building natural hard immunity. Because the treatment has limitations, he says. If you think about building tough immunity naturally, you can create a situation of helplessness.

It still takes a long time to get vaccinated against the coronavirus. There is no specific medication for its treatment. Therefore, there is no way that Bangladesh can cope with the coronavirus epidemic.

Many experts believe that Bangladesh must still focus on resistance.

Now Bangladesh has no choice but to wear a mask and wash their hands.
Dr. Bay-Nazir Ahmed said that the infection rate is increasing day by day and that much time and prevention opportunities have been wasted. He believes that the situation can still be controlled by controlling the path of resistance.

“It just caught our eye then. There was a lockdown. However, we cannot do well in curative sites without prevention. As a result, we have to re-emphasize prevention measures.

Professor Nazrul Islam sees the current situation differently. He thinks that the situation in Bangladesh has worsened.

According to him, the issue of resistance will now depend entirely on people’s personal efforts. He also said that strict blockages in the area could be used to prevent the spread of the infection.

Bangladesh In Bangladesh now the option is to wear that mask and wash your hands, there is nothing left. Blocking does not mean that. Their garments, shops and mosques were opened. So what remains without wearing a mask and washing your hands? And personal awareness is the main path now. ‘

The government health department also seems to depend on people’s efforts to prevent it.

Try to stop the infection until the vaccine arrives.
Professor Abul Kalam Azad, director general of the health department, said they would try to slow the spread of the coronavirus until the vaccine arrived. As a result, they will monitor the implementation of preventive measures, including blockages, he said.

‘We believe a vaccine will be discovered as soon as possible. Bangladesh is also aware of the discovery of the vaccine so that it can be administered to people. And the second thing is, if we can reduce the infection rate a little bit until this vaccine is discovered. That is our strategy. “

যদিও সরকারের নীতি নির্ধারকদের অনেকে বলেছেন, একদিকে সংক্রমণের বিস্তার ঠেকানো এবং অন্যদিকে অর্থনৈতিক সংকট বা দুর্ভিক্ষ যাতে না হয়-এই উভয় সংকট নিয়ে এগুতে গিয়ে তারা পরিস্থিতি অনুযায়ী সব উপায় ব্যবহার করছেন। আর তাতে তারা ঝুঁকির বিষয়ও বিবেচনায় নিচ্ছেন।

তবে সংক্রমণের বিস্তার ঠেকানোর উপায় এবং সময় শেষ হয়ে যায় কি না- সেই উদ্বেগ রয়েছে বিশ্লেষকদের মাঝে।

সূত্র: বিবিসি