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Stakeholders say the speed at which tests are conducted every day is not enough and is not a picture of the entire country. The country is not yet at the peak of the transition. Experts believe the situation could worsen in May if the number of tests increases and the general holiday is relaxed.
Health experts say the next 14 days are tough times. Therefore, you must cross it in a planned manner with great caution. If not, the highest number of deaths and patients will be seen in May.
After the first patient was identified on March 8, the number of patients identified in one month until April 6 was 216. Then the patient continues to grow. On April 17, 306 patients were identified. Since then, the number has only increased. On April 20, 492 people, on April 24, 503 people, on April 26, 549 people and on April 29, 841 people However, the number of patients identified on April 30 was 564 less than the previous day .
Director General of the Department of Health, Prof. Abul Kalam Azad quoted experts who said that by May 31, 48,000 to 50,000 people could be infected with the coronavirus and 800 to 1,000 people could die. He made the comments at an inter-ministerial meeting on April 21 to review coronavirus prevention and treatment measures and what to do next.
If you want to know the pathology, said the scientific director of research and disease control. ASM Alamgir told the Bengali Tribune that no model really matches reality. But modeling is done to aid in preparation. However, in mid-May, the crown’s “peak time” may appear, Dr. Alamgir said.
At the start of the coronavirus outbreak, samples of Covid-19 were analyzed at the Institute of Disease Pathology, Control and Research (IEDCR), but are currently being tested in 26 laboratories in the country. Of these, 12 institutions in the capital Dhaka and 18 institutions outside Dhaka and three private hospitals have received permission from the Health Department to perform crown tests. Although these hospitals will only be able to examine their admitted patients.
Researchers at the Data Driven Innovation Lab at the University of Technology and Design (SUTD) in Singapore predicted that the incidence of the crown in Bangladesh could drop by 99 percent in May. However, it may take until July 15 for the virus to leave Bangladesh. And Corona could say goodbye to the world before December 7. However, Bangladeshi doctors disagree with this.
Dhaka Medical College Hospital, professor of medicine. Robed Amin told the Bengali Tribune: “If the blockade is relaxed, the number of patients will increase.” But if the blockade is extended, the cases will be resolved and delayed. If it is delayed in this way, the situation will continue even if the infection does not peak. “Professor Robed Amin disagrees with the information provided by Singapore.
Although the samples have been tested in 26 locations across the country, they are not being tested in remote areas, upazilas and many districts, Professor Robed Amin said. “So we are not yet getting the image of the entire country.” We still do not know the total number of people affected in Bangladesh. A calculation is made based solely on the test.
“The situation in Dhaka appears to be worse than in Wuhan of China,” said Nazrul Islam, a former vice chancellor of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University and a leading virologist. “People are not following the shutdown.” This can be understood only by matching the rate of infected people in Dhaka city. ”
Anthropologist and medical researcher Atiq Ahsan said: ‘May will not bring us anything good. I’ll see what could be worse in May. After that, the number of patients will gradually start to decrease. ‘
“The patients are scattered across the country and not all have been identified,” he said. It has been said that the number of patients will increase since mid-April. According to him, the number of patients has increased since mid-April. And trends in other countries say that when the number of patients begins to increase, it increases up to 30 days, but in our country, with these 30 days, as another risk factor, relaxation of general holidays, opening of clothing factories and restaurants, the highest number of patients or the peak hours are observed in the third week of May. Yes. That is the identification of the patient and death, both cases. So the month of May is terrible for us. But hopefully, the number of patients will start to decrease starting next month. ”
Professor Benazir Ahmed, former director of the disease control branch of the health department, told the Bengali Tribune that the way patients are informed every day is not under control. “The current measures are not enough to control the infection.” If the blockage is slowly lifted, the infection will increase and continue to increase. The infection will continue throughout the month of May.
Questions about the relaxation of the confinement
As the number of patients continues to rise, experts have questioned the idea of opening a clothing factory, long-distance train service and opening a restaurant, taking the country’s general vacation. They say that if you don’t follow the steps taken to lift the blockade, you may have to pay a heavy price. China did not take action at first, so they had to take the toughest measures. Italy has had to pay a higher price. Recently, the United States has to pay much more. At this time it is unknown what he will do after leaving the position. Experts say that despite so many examples, it’s hard to say how much it will cost if you show disregard for the shutdown, and of course it’s a matter of apprehension.
Professor Benazir Ahmed, former director of the Health Department’s Disease Control Branch, said that “strict blocking was the only effective way to prevent patient infections, both outside Dhaka and within Dhaka.” The lock should not be lifted. The factory must move away from the way it opens. The signal is directed to the general public, the lock is lifted and it is possible to move. Directs fear. If you have to open a lock, you should do it on a planned basis. At the same time, factory workers are listed and their health status is verified, and those who are free from it must be transported from their homes to the factory so that no one else infects them.
Professor Dr. Nazrul Islam told the Bengali Tribune: “Clothing factories have been opened in Dhaka and Narayanganj, for which a separate working group must be formed.” If any deviation is found somewhere, then the garment factory should be closed. Rations must be organized for the workers in these garment factories. These workers must undergo daily health checks and, if anyone has a problem, they must be quarantined. It must be obeyed. At the end of the quarantine, they will need to be tested again and allowed to work in the factory.
Meanwhile, Professor Robed Amin said steps had to be taken to lift the blockade, adding: “Unfortunately, those steps are not being followed.” And if this step is not followed, community transmission will be much higher and there will be more patients in May. We will be in trouble in May. “
He said: ‘Clothing factories must be inspected and admitted to factories. Being out of the test means being at risk. They must be quarantined for 14 days and work in groups, otherwise it won’t happen. ‘
Atiq Ahsan said the same. “The number of patients will depend on how much the closure will be relaxed,” Atik told the Bengali Tribune.
Graphic: Atiq Ahsan
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