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Recent opinion polls suggest that Democratic candidate Joe Biden remains ahead of Republican Donald Trump on several points.
It is not just Joe Biden who is ahead of the national electorate as the next president.
According to opinion polls, Joe Biden is leading the way in so-called “changing states” of states.
The huge amount of money Democrats have raised for the election campaign this time is a new record. As a result, they are in a favorable financial position.
This means that in the weeks leading up to the vote, Joe Biden will be able to spread the word about his campaign and his message on radio and television.
Most election analysts now speculate that Trump will not be re-elected.
Net Silver’s FiveThirty.com blog now believes that Biden has a 7 percent chance of winning. Decision Desk HQ, on the other hand, says the probability is 63.5 percent.
Democrats, however, have seen this before, leading to frustration.
Four years ago, at a time before the election, it was also predicted that Hillary Clinton would have a high chance of winning. But they remember what happened after that.
Could that story be repeated with another Trump victory?
Donald Trump will be sworn in again in January; If this scene is true, here are five possible reasons.
1. Another ‘October wonder’
Just 11 days before the election four years ago, FBI Director Jeremy Comey said his agency was reopening the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s use of her personal email server during her time as Secretary of State.
For a week, the incident and related issues were big news in the news, giving the Trump campaign a chance to catch its breath.
Now there are about two weeks left before the 2020 election. If something like this happens now to cause a political earthquake, that could be Trump’s victory.
So far, of course, the big surprises this month have been against Trump. For example, news leaked about his non-payment of taxes and he was admitted to the hospital with Covid-19.
The conservative camp, however, described another incident as a campaign-shaking event.
The New York Post has published a dramatic account of a mysterious laptop and an email found on it. It could be that Joe Biden and his son Hunter are involved in an attempt to pressure a Ukrainian gas company.
But due to its questionable origins and lack of precision, it may not seem like a large voter turnout.
Trump, however, has promised that when he starts, much more will come. If so, and there is direct evidence of any wrongdoing during Biden’s presidency, it could turn into a different and bigger event.
Or maybe something else, something unimaginable, will happen very soon in this campaign.
If we could predict what it would be, no one would be surprised.
2. ‘The polls are wrong’
Since Joe Biden became the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, he has been ahead of Trump in national opinion polls.
Even in swing states, where the support gap between the two candidates is very small, Joe Biden has always been seen to be a bit ahead.
The gap between these polls is even bigger than it could be.
However, as seen in the 2016 election, who is ahead in the nationwide polls is irrelevant and the statewide polls can also be wrong.
Predicting how many people will actually vote in presidential elections is a huge challenge for pollsters before each election.
In the 2016 election, surveyors made a mistake about it. They captured fewer white and college-educated voters, who voted for Trump in greater numbers.
According to the Daily New York Times, Biden is now ahead: he will win even if pollsters make the same mistake as in 2016.
But pollsters say they have some new hurdles to overcome in the 2020 election.
For example, many Americans plan to vote by mail for the first time. Republicans have already said they will vigorously challenge vote-by-mail, because they believe there is a potential for widespread fraud and must stop it.
Democrats say it is an attempt to suppress voters.
If voters fill out their forms incorrectly or do not follow due process, or if there is an obstacle or delay in mailing ballots, there may be a situation where even a properly filled out ballot can be canceled.
If the number of polling stations is low or if there are few officials in them, many people may find it difficult to go to the polls on November 3.
This can put off many Americans, whose opinion polls have been identified as potential voters, by voters.
3. If Trump does well in the television debate
The uproar over Trump and Biden’s first debate on television has stopped as two weeks have passed. In that debate, however, Trump was the most aggressive.
Opinion polls suggest that Trump’s aggressive rhetoric is not to the liking of suburban women who have repeatedly blocked Biden’s words. They are considered an important class in this election.
Biden, on the other hand, was adamant about the onslaught Republicans wanted to create on voters’ minds on Biden’s age, relieved.
Now, October 22 is the last chance for Trump to change his mind in the first debate.
If he can be relatively calm and friendly with the president that day, and if Biden has made a dramatic mistake, then perhaps this contest could turn around and favor Trump.
4. Victory in Swaying States
Although opinion polls suggest Biden’s favor, there are many states where Trump is either ahead or far behind.
With a little side-scrolling here, the Electoral College votes may be in favor of Trump.
As in the last election in 2016, Trump received fewer public votes at the national level, but Trump received many more votes in the Electoral College than Hillary Clinton.
Swing claims Trump won, like Michigan and Wisconsin seems out of reach this time.
But if Trump narrowly wins the rest, drawing more white voters with no college education to the polls in Pennsylvania and Florida, he could secure a victory with 270 electoral votes.
Some even paint the picture that if both Trump and Biden get 269 electoral votes, the outcome of this ‘tie’ will be decided by state representatives in the lower house of the United States Congress.
In that case, the majority is expected to vote for Trump.
5. There is nothing wrong with Biden
Joe Biden has run a very orderly campaign so far.
Maybe it was done deliberately or because of the reality caused by the coronavirus epidemic.
But Biden is a candidate, who is sometimes thought to be outspoken. Even after that, he has been able to avoid massages so far, he has not had any problems because of his words.
But now Biden is campaigning loudly. Since you have many meetings, you also increase the risk of speaking suddenly.
There are many types of people in Joe Biden’s electoral alliance. There are suburban moderates, there are angry Republicans, there are minorities, there are traditional working Democrats and liberals.
If Biden does something to upset one of these groups, it could provoke anger among his followers.
There is also the possibility that Joe Biden’s age has become visible due to campaign-related fatigue, and that there may be concerns about whether he is fit to run for president.
Trump’s campaign team will not hesitate to take advantage of this.
Biden’s campaign team may think the White House will take over in a few days.
But now, if they stumble, perhaps this political party can provide another example of how to wrest defeat from ‘sure victory’.
Source: BBC
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