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The third country in the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia that has most concerned the third country is Iran. The concerned Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has warned that the fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia could escalate into a regional war, with no signs of easing the fighting between the two neighboring countries in nearly two weeks.
“We must ensure that the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan does not turn into a regional conflict in any way,” Rouhani said.
In recent days there have been reports of rockets and artillery shells from various villages along the border in Iran. The head of Iran’s border guards, Qasem Rajei, said that some projectiles had fallen into them since the conflict began and that troops on the northern border had been alerted.
President Rouhani also said yesterday that it was “unacceptable” for missiles from any other country to land on Iranian soil. নিরাপত্ত The safety of our city and town is our top priority. ‘
Analysts say Iran is concerned that the conflict between the two neighbors could spiral out of control.
Iran is trying to maintain a difficult balance in its political, historical and ethnic relations with the two countries. Although Iran has been supporting Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh from the beginning, as in the past, Iran has repeatedly tried to say that it does not take sides in the dispute.
Iranian President Rouhani himself has spoken by phone with the two heads of government to resolve the conflict through reconciliation. Tehran has even offered to mediate.
Why is Iran concerned
Many observers say that the firing of some artillery shells is not Iran’s main concern, but rather a door-to-door conflict involving countries with deep doubts about Iran’s intentions.
The Azeri bombardment destroyed several houses in Stepanakart, the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh. Thousands of people have fled the city.
Concerns are growing within the Tehran government that it might try to attack Iran if the war drags on. Iran is concerned about Azerbaijan’s proximity to Israel and its purchase of Israeli drones and other weapons. Israel’s aid to Muslim Azerbaijan is so public that Armenia has called its ambassador to Israel in protest.
“The United States and Israel would like to keep this dispute alive,” Al Jazeera said, citing Mohammad Javed Jamali, an Iranian politician close to the Tehran government and a former member of the National Security Committee in the Iranian parliament. Understandably, despite Azerbaijan being a majority Shiite country, Iran is deeply concerned and unhappy about its proximity to its arch enemy Israel.
There are also accusations that Iran is helping Armenia on the ground. Several videos have recently been shared online showing trucks with weapons entering Armenia through an Iranian border.
But the Iranian government immediately dismissed it as “baseless propaganda.” Iranian state television has shown that Russian-made trucks parked on the Neraduz border with Armenia were bought by Armenia from Russia before the conflict started, via Iran. And those trucks are not weapons, but automobile equipment.
The delicate equation of ethnicity in Iran
There is also fear within Iran that the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia could threaten its internal stability. The main reason for this fear is that historically a large number of ethnic Azeris and Armenians live inside Iran.
Modern Azerbaijan and Armenia (old name Aran) were part of the Persian Empire until the 19th century, when they lost the war to Russia. As a result, many people from these two ethnic groups are Iranian citizens.
Azeris are the largest minority in Iran. About 20 million Azeris live in Iran. Azeris are the majority population, especially in Ardabil, on the border with Azerbaijan and in the East Azerbaijan province. Although they are citizens of Iran, they feel close to Azerbaijanis on the other side of the border.
Recent video footage shows demonstrations in support of Azerbaijan in various cities, including Tehran and Tabriz. In several places where Azeris live, the imams of the mosques issued joint statements in support of Azerbaijan after Friday prayers.
On the other hand, there are about a million Iranian Armenians who are well established in the country’s business and other socio-economic structures. These Iranian Armenians have deep ties to the influential Armenian peoples of other countries in the world, especially the United States. As a result, they are very important to the Iranian government.
Marjie Kohi-Isfahani, a professor at Durham University in the UK and an expert on Iran, wrote in an analysis on a research-based online portal called The Conversation that Iran was trying to mediate due to the sensitivities of the two ethnic groups. .
“Iran must show that it is neutral in this conflict. It is important that they have internal stability. Publicly supporting one side could create ethnic divisions within Iran and escalate into a conflict.
According to Marjie Kohi-Isfahani, the best option for Iran now is to remain neutral in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as to support international efforts to end the conflict.
Source: BBC
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