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Afghanistan’s two regional neighbors, India and Pakistan, are perhaps more interested in the ongoing face-to-face talks between the Taliban and the Kabul government in Doha, Qatar, than they are with the Afghan people.
The geopolitical interests of these two hostile South Asian neighbors have a profound bearing on what will be decided at the Doha meeting on the future sharing of power in Afghanistan.
As a result, since President Trump announced his intention to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan, India and Pakistan have worked hard to secure their interests in this future war-torn country.
Although both India and Pakistan want peace and stability in Afghanistan, there is a big difference in their positions on how to guarantee it. Most observers believe that India and Pakistan are more concerned about the future of the two countries in Afghanistan than about the 20-year war in Afghanistan.
What Pakistan wants
Hassan Askar Rizvi, a security analyst in Islamabad, told BBC Bangla that Pakistan now really wants stability in Afghanistan but they want a government in power in Kabul with which they will be closer than India.
Pakistan has always said that its main concern is peace and stability in Afghanistan and that it does not consider which government is in power in Kabul.
But Rizvi believes that Pakistan wants the Taliban to be an important ally, no matter which government comes to Kabul in the future.
Why is Pakistan so dependent on the Taliban? Hassan Askar Rizvi said: “While it is not the case that the Taliban are now talking about Pakistan, those who think they do not know the internal history well. But even then, Pakistan believes that the Taliban will prefer Pakistan to India.
“India is a non-Muslim country for the Taliban. It is very clear to them.”
Rizvi said Pakistan firmly believes that India’s growing economic and political influence in Afghanistan over the past decade poses a serious threat to its security.
Pakistan believes that, in collusion with Afghan intelligence, Indian intelligence agencies are supporting anti-Pakistan militants, assisting separatists in Baluchistan. Pakistan wants to change that. “
Pakistan’s ties to the Taliban are longstanding. Pakistan supported the Taliban in the Afghan civil war in the 1990s. Pakistan was one of only three countries that recognized its legitimate rule after the Taliban took power in 1996.
Taliban leaders have found refuge in Pakistan. Pakistan even played a key role in the peace accord the Taliban signed with the United States in February. The United States has unanimously recognized this.
However, many observers like Rizvi believe that the Taliban are not subordinate to Pakistan. As proof, they say, radical Imam Mullah Abdul Hakim, who leads the Taliban at the reconciliation meeting in Doha. But Pakistan wanted Abdul Ghani Baradar, a deputy for the late Taliban leader Mullah Omar, with whom many believe the Pakistani military had close ties, to lead the way.
Fahad Humayun, a researcher for the foreign policy journal US Special Diplomacy, writes that the top leadership of the Taliban now includes some who are not as close to Pakistan as their predecessors and who do not know the history of that relationship.
Fahad Humayun believes that a new group of Taliban leaders is now looking to Doha instead of Islamabad to protect their interests.
In addition, Hassan Askar Rizvi said there was concern in Pakistan over the way a section of the Taliban had taken a hard line to establish an Islamic state in Afghanistan.
“Pakistan may not even want a Taliban government at this point.”
He said there is a growing fear in Pakistan that the Taliban could pose a threat to Pakistan if they come to power in Afghanistan.
The Afghan Taliban may be forging links with Pakistani Taliban groups such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). At least 6,000 Pakistani Taliban members of the United Nations are now involved in Afghanistan’s civil war.
But even then, Pakistan feels that the important role of the Taliban in power in Afghanistan is the best option for them at the moment.
But the prospect of a Taliban government in Afghanistan again, and the establishment of an Islamic state under its leadership, is a nightmare for India.
Why is India so worried
“If the Taliban turn against a democratic constitution, relations between India and Afghanistan will be complicated, which is a threat to India’s national security,” Sanjay Bharadwaj, professor of South Asian studies at the University, told the BBC. Jawaharlal Nehru (JNU) in Delhi.
Because, thinks Professor Bhardwaj, the Taliban have supported the hard-line anti-India Islamists, and that is why India has always wanted the peace talks to be under the control of the Afghan government.
Not only internal security, Afghanistan is very important to India because of its trade with Central Asia and its balance of power with China and Pakistan. In addition to Iran, there are several important Central Asian countries in northern Afghanistan. Pakistan in the east and the Indian Ocean in the south beyond Iran-Pakistan.
Observers believe this is the reason why India has increased its role in Afghanistan’s economy, security, education and culture over the past decade. India’s investment in social infrastructure projects and road bridges, dams, etc. It stands at £ 3 billion, the second highest after the United States.
In addition, according to the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, there are 1,600 Indians working in the Afghan banking, information technology and health sectors. Many Indian companies are doing business by opening offices in that country. That is why India is concerned about future reorganizations in Afghanistan.
India’s Foreign Minister S Jayashankar addressed the opening ceremony of the Doha meeting online. An Indian diplomat (JP Singh) has arrived in Doha.
Observers say India has been negotiating with the United States to ensure its interests in Afghanistan are not harmed.
The problem of the Taliban in India
India does not want the influence of the Taliban in Afghanistan to turn the country back into a radical Islamic state.
India knows that Pakistan has close ties to the Taliban and that the Taliban have no interest in India.
However, Ashok Sajjanhar, a former Indian ambassador, told BBC Hindi that the Taliban were no longer a hard-line Islamic organization and that their attitude towards India had changed.
For example, he said, in November 2016, when Russia invited several representatives of the Taliban. Even then, the Taliban recognized the presence of two former Indian diplomats as observers.
“The Taliban of the 1990s and the Taliban of today are not one. They want an Islamic state, but at the same time they have no objection to everyone’s participation. They know that they need recognition from the international community.”
Furthermore, Mr. Sajjanhar thinks that the attitude towards India among the Afghan people in general is positive. “They know that no one will do what India is helping them. No matter which government comes in the future, it cannot deny this reality. “
But not just the Taliban or Pakistan, but China’s growing interest in Afghanistan in recent times is another reason for India’s headaches. China has recently made significant investments in Afghanistan’s copper and iron ore mines. India also fears that China may forge closer ties with the Taliban with the help of Pakistan in the future.
It is impossible to say with certainty that power sharing will be decided at the Doha meeting. Many experts believe a man-made drama may be taking place before the US election.
But the United States will withdraw its troops today or tomorrow, and there is no doubt that Afghanistan will change a lot then. India and Pakistan are preparing to face that reality.
Source: BBC
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