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Contrary to this hope, there is another possibility of despair. What if the vaccine cannot be done?
The minds of besieged people sway in the game of hope and despair. Hope is awakening once again in the news of research and progress in different parts of the world, it is dying out again in the news of despair.
Speaking to experts, a CNN report has tried to change the real situation.
If Kovid-19 cannot be eradicated, people will have to get used to living with it. If the experts agree, the lock can be lifted gradually. It can also move people’s lives and livelihoods to some degree.
If symptoms appear or are suspected, testing and finding the source of the infection should become routine. Always keep in mind that quarantine instructions can come at any time.
Infections can also develop in humans, but the virus can return every year; The death procession will continue to grow with that.
Politicians do not say these things. They are listening to hope; He says that the trial of effectiveness of the vaccine in the human body has begun.
But experts are not looking at the reverse of the coin. Because people have had to admit failure many times before.
Professor of Global Health at London Imperial College. “There are many viruses for which we have not yet developed a vaccine,” said David Navarro.
The special envoy of the World Health Organization for COVID-19 said: “It would not be correct for us to assume that vaccines can be made.” It remains to be seen if the vaccine will be able to pass all levels of testing and effectiveness if it can be developed again. ”
Nabarro’s advice is that, as long as nothing is certain, everyone should try to keep the wheel of life and the economy moving as much as possible at the risk of the virus.
However, many experts are confident in the discovery of a new coronavirus antidote. One of their arguments is that coronaviruses do not change their structure as fast as HIV or malaria.
Some, like Anthony Fauchi, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in the United States, believe that the vaccine will disappear in a year and a half.
Chris Witty, medical director for England, said it was too early to expect a vaccine within a year.
Even if the vaccine can be made, the task of passing it on to humans after passing all tests has never been done in the past year and a half, recalls Dr. Dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine. In Houston. Peter Hotz.
“It is not impossible, but it will be a great success,” he told CNN. We have to think of both a plan and a plan. “
When the shot didn’t match
The AIDS virus was first identified in 1984. At that time, the United States announced that it would be possible to develop an HIV vaccine for the test within two years.
In the four decades since, AIDS has claimed the lives of 32 million people. But the search for an HIV vaccine has been unsuccessful.
For many years, the situation was such that if someone tested positive for HIV, they would be sentenced to death. Family and society would not be by his side in the last days of their lives. There has been a debate among the doctors themselves about whether it is necessary to try to keep them alive.
However, attempts to create an AIDS vaccine have not stopped. In 1998, the then President of the United States, Bill Clinton, called on scientists in his country to take up the challenge of developing the vaccine within a decade. And 14 years ago today, scientists said, it would take another decade.
Paul Affit, a pediatrician and infectious disease specialist who is a member of the team that developed the rotavirus vaccine, says the delay in the development of the AIDS vaccine is due to the nature of the virus.
“The influenza virus can change shape every year. So the body’s immune system doesn’t work next time. And the HIV virus changes its type with each infection.
“It just caught our eye then. This means that a person infected with AIDS can have hundreds of different strains of the virus. HIV also destroys the human immune system by establishing itself in the body.”
Not only HIV, but many other viruses have survived by humiliating people and scientists.
According to the World Health Organization, around four million people are infected with dengue each year. Scientists have been unsuccessful in discovering the vaccine for a decade.
A vaccine in 2016 showed some hope. But if the condition of many patients worsens after the application, it is finally canceled.
Similarly, the task of manufacturing rhinovirus and adenovirus vaccines is difficult, since virus infections can cause the same symptoms as coronaviruses. Although effective vaccines against both types of adenoviruses can be developed, they are not commercially available.
Dr. Imperial College London. Nabaro says that it is not easy to cure any disease.
“Here we have to work with biological systems, not mechanical ones. It all depends on how the human body responds.”
The University of Oxford in the UK has developed a vaccine against the chimpanzee virus that is now being experimentally tested in humans. On the other hand, Mordana, a Boston-based biotechnology company in the United States, is trying to make another vaccine.
Hotz, who is participating in a SARS vaccination study, says all the upcoming news is in the vaccination testing phase, but has not yet been truly successful.
“The most difficult thing is that this vaccine is really working and it’s safe to prove it.”
What are the alternatives?
If the mark is not found, people will have to live with the possibility of contracting the virus for many more years. It is very much like living a life of AIDS patients.
Although people have not been able to develop a vaccine, they have been able to create a daily pill that saves thousands of people from the risk of AIDS.
In the Covid-19 treatment, several such alternatives are being examined. Because in addition to vaccine research, it is also important to develop medications that are effective in curing the infected person. But all research is at an early stage.
Scientists in the United States are talking about reducing the recovery time of Kovid-19 patients with the Ebola drug remedy. How useful plasma treatment can be is also being seen.
Although President Donald Trump called the hydroxychloroquine malaria drug a “game changer,” it did not work for critically ill Kovid-19 patients.
Keith Neal, professor emeritus of the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at the University of Nottingham, says that while research on the efficacy of many types of medications is positive, they are not being done on a large scale.
He told CNN that the test must be controlled and randomized. If there is a possibility of a drug in a full trial, you can see it in a few weeks.
The US Food and Drug Administration. USA It has already announced that it will allow the use of RMDCV in hospitals to help coronavirus patients recover better.
If a drug is really successful, its effects will be powerful. If a medication can reduce a patient’s time in the ICU, it will be possible to increase the range of hospital services.
However, the reality is that no cure can stop this epidemic without an antidote. Coronavirus shock may be easier to treat if we obtain effective medications to cure the disease, but this disease will remain with us for many years.
Such a sleeping scene at Chandrima Udyan in Bharadupura in Dhaka is not unknown, but at this time of the coronavirus crisis, he has put a mask on his face for protection. This person was seen sleeping after the mask on Monday afternoon. Photo: Mahmud Zaman Avi
What will the world of vaccines be like?
If the vaccine does not match, human life will not be the same soon.
Neil said: “Blocking is not a good method for the economy; Maybe not for politics. We need alternatives to control this epidemic. “
That is, when governments look for ways to revitalize a stagnant economy, experts need to find new ways to handle the situation until a vaccine is discovered.
“We need to be fully prepared for Covid-19,” said Nabarro.
How can that be?
Nabarro says that a new general rule must now be created in society, where each citizen of each country will assume their own responsibility. As soon as symptoms appear, separate. Don’t go for less than your full potential. At least a few more days to work from home, for those who can do it. Organizations need to share their work hours so that the office is not crowded at any time.
In Nabarro’s words, “We need to make a great change in our personal behavior, where we all assume our own responsibilities. The one who has not been accompanied must be seen as a hero, not as untouchable.”
However, it will not be easy to achieve that change in life in an underdeveloped country, agrees Nabarro. That is why it is important to cooperate with developing countries, especially those with higher refugee and immigrant status.
He says that public health management needs to be developed quickly, with regular coronavirus testing and contact tracing. In this way, people can have the opportunity to live in the midst of the virus outbreak.
Hotz says that it is not impossible to build such a system, but it is very complicated, because some people have never done it before.
If this is done, events such as the Premier League and the National Football League can be started. Care must be taken to ensure that players undergo regular health checks and to reduce frequent interactions with fans. If necessary, arrangements should be made to close the stadium immediately.
Neil said the restaurant could also be opened to accommodate social distance. Already, many European restaurants have hinted at a limited opening.
However, Hotz believes the ban could be lifted again next winter. According to him, there is a risk of increasing the incidence of Covid-19 every winter until the vaccine arrives.
“Occasionally there will be outbreaks. Then the movement will be banned. Perhaps the country is partially blocked. Or the whole country should be blocked.”
Such a scene in the Saidabad-Jatrabari section of Mayor Hanif’s overpass is unfamiliar to the people of Dhaka. Photo: Mostafizur Rahman
As time goes on, the proof of that widely discussed “tough immunity” theory will come closer. The theory is that if 80 to 90 percent of the population is already infected, everyone will be immune to the virus. If that is true, the incidence of the virus in society will also decrease.
However, Afit is not willing to accept this method as a good thing. According to him, vaccination is the best way to create immunity among people.
Citing the example of measles, he said 2 to 3 million people used to get measles each year before the vaccine was introduced. This is especially true during coronavirus epidemics.
Afit believes that the vaccine will come to prevent the coronavirus.
“There is no shortage of money, no shortage of interest. And what to do is also quite clear.”
However, recalling the experience of previous studies, he said, “You can’t get any vaccines overnight. I would be surprised if you could get a vaccine in 18 months.”
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