With the increase in deaths in California, what’s next?

The trend line seems alarming: almost every day brings more deaths than the previous one, in figures that California has never seen before during the pandemic.

In just over a week, the state set four records of coronavirus deaths, reaching a record high (193 deaths) on Wednesday. Experts say those numbers are the expected result of the increase in cases that started last month after communities across the state eased their closure restrictions.

“It is very sad to see how these deaths are recorded and the numbers are increasing, and it’s scary, but (people) have to admit that this represents the spread of the infection about four weeks ago,” said Dr. John Swartzberg, a disease infectious. Expert in the UC Berkeley-UCSF Joint Medical Program. “So the question that really interests us now is: Well, that was really bad, but where are we now?”

Where we are now is almost half a million COVID-19 cases across the state, with more than 9,000 new cases reported each day. Increasingly, those cases are coming from the Central Valley, while the proportion of new cases in Los Angeles County, which had been a virus hot spot in the past, is declining. A total of 38 California counties are on the governor’s watch list, which means they have shown evidence of a troubling spread of the virus and are not allowed to open certain businesses, including the entire Bay Area, which has seen more of 50,000 infections and 800 deaths.

While the average number of new daily infections in the state has been declining since Saturday, Swartzberg cautioned that even if that trend continues, it will take time for the state’s death count to continue.

“We are going to see for at least another month a significant number of deaths,” he said. “So gird your loins, because it won’t be pretty.”

Still, California is better than many other states. With 22 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, the Golden State, the most populous in the nation, ranked 28th for deaths per capita in the United States, tied with Texas.

Who is dying of the disease in California says: young people are now more likely to become infected, but older people are more likely to die. Californians over the age of 65 account for 16% of the state’s population, but only 11% of their coronavirus cases. However, they represent a staggering 76% of deaths, according to data collected and analyzed by this news organization. On the other hand, people between 18 and 34 years old represent 24% of the state’s population, but 35% of cases, and only 1% of deaths.

Experts say older Californians, knowing that they are more likely to have severe or fatal symptoms if exposed to the virus, are generally doing a better job of sheltering in place and avoiding infection.

“As an older person,” said Dr. Arthur Reingold, 71, UC Berkeley chief of epidemiology and biostatistics division, “I would risk assuming that older people will be slower and more reluctant to start making more variety. of things that younger people do. “

California’s Latino population has also seen a disproportionate number of COVID-19 infections and deaths. Latinx residents make up 39% of the population, but comprise 56% of coronavirus cases and 46% of deaths. White residents represent 37% of the population, 18% of cases and 30% of deaths, while black residents represent 6% of the population, 4% of cases and 9% of deaths.

Overall, the recent spread of the virus has alarmed experts and politicians. After allowing broad sectors of the economy to reopen, Governor Gavin Newsom earlier this month reversed course and ordered the closure of restaurants, bars, movie theaters and other indoor businesses. Experts are not sure that this movement is enough to stop the virus. But they say we should know soon.

When Newsom first shut down the economy in March, it took two to three weeks before the state saw its case number stabilize, Swartzberg said. This time, because Newsom used a lighter touch and allowed more businesses to remain open, Swartzberg expects them to be closer in four to five weeks before there is an effect. That means if Newsom’s plan worked, Californians should see infections stagnate in a week or two.

But not everyone is convinced that Newsom’s actions earlier this month, which included forcing counties with worrisome coronavirus statistics to close gyms, beauty salons, houses of worship, closed shopping centers, and nonessential offices, will have the desired effect.

“I think it’s good,” said Dr. Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, professor and chair of the UCSF Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics. “I think there is reason to be concerned because it is not enough.”

Bibbins-Domingo fears the state will languish in a tragic middle ground in which enough companies are closed to devastate workers’ finances, but at the same time, enough remain to allow the virus to continue spreading.

In addition, concerns about hospital capacity and the provision of personal protective equipment for health workers, which first arose in the pandemic, have returned.