The NFL’s rosters are about to shrink.
As the league and its players discuss COVID-related changes to their game, the number of athletes on each training camp list is said to go from 90 to 80. It could happen before teams do a single practice. It could happen shortly after the clubs denounce their players.
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However, the general consensus is that the lists will fire 10 employees before those employees have many opportunities to show what they can do in the field.
The teams have already missed the spring evaluation periods like the Rookie Mini Camp, OTAs and the Mandatory Mini Camp. Now entering what Bill Belichick calls a “competition field” bubble players and long shots have an almost impossible task: defeating the players the teams have invested in most significantly.
We point to the Patriots “winners” and “losers” after the NFL eliminated preseason games.
The “losers” included undrafted rookies, who will likely face much more odds than their teammates who were drafted in the spring. Sophomores or juniors looking to make their mark for the first time, their career prospects perhaps dependent on making a list this summer, could miss opportunities for vets whose experience makes them better choices in an almost non-existent preseason.
However, the odds are that, in league terms, it is the undrafted rookies who suffer the most.
How can they catch up fast enough to have a legitimate shot to make a regular season roster? How can they put up enough tape for a coach to argue for that player about someone who has a year of experience on a practice team, for example, or a player who has positive replays of the NFL game tape to his name? Why keep them close when they are generally guaranteed so little in terms of salary?
If the Patriots don’t have an undrafted player on their initial active roster, their 16-year streak will end, one of the longest in the NFL.
Eliminating 10 players before they touch a field, otherwise it won’t help that streak survive. Maybe that corner at the end of the depth chart is the next Malcolm Butler or Jonathan Jones. Perhaps the tenth or eleventh offensive lineman who does not survive the first cut is the next David Andrews. Perhaps that receiver, considered little more than a camp corps at the moment, is the next Jakobi Meyers or Gunner Olszewski.
The Patriots don’t have to lose their streak until 17. The 10 players who lose don’t have to come from the undrafted ranks.
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In fact, there may be players on the roster currently whose NFL experience works against them. Hasn’t it shown promise in a year or two if you kick the league? You may be overlooked by someone like the undrafted patriots, Will Hastings or Jeff Thomas, who hail from big shows (Auburn and Miami, respectfully) and have physical gifts given to them by the ever-coveted “upward” team builders. value.
But how can Belichick and Nick Caserio adequately measure upward on a special team, the next Brandon King, for example, when there are no live special team reps before the start of the regular season because preseason games have been removed. ?
What about quarterbacks like J’Mar Smith and Brian Lewerke, both undrafted rookies? Are they going in the first 10 pitches because they have no way to replays in a preseason where replays will be harder to get than ever?
Practice squads have already expanded with the new CBA from 10 to 12 players, and may grow again as the NFL and NFLPA remove the details of the COVID era. That means more opportunities for these non-recruited rookies with zero history to stick. But even there, the rules allow more vets to remain p-wasters. Even there, the balance between experience versus potential, a high “floor” versus a high “ceiling”, will come into play.
The Patriots streak of undrafted rookies to make the list doesn’t have to end this year. But removing 10 (several of which could very well be UDFA) from the start lowers your chances of adding another underdog success story to a loaded list of them.
