The NBA Breakdown provides data-driven analytics for everyday performance with the FantasyLabs Tools and Metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday includes a roster with four games, starting with 1 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard continues to provide excellent fantasy value for the Blazers. He has posted an average Plus / Minus of +10.07 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he comes off of 47.5 FanDuel points in Game 1 vs. the Lakers.
Lillard did this through an unparalleled workload. He has logged at least 39.1 minutes in every game in Orlando, and he has lost 41.1 minutes in each of his past three. He is currently projected for 43.1 minutes in our NBA Models, which is absolutely foolish. It’s hard for a high price player to fail, given that much playing time: Players with a comparable salary have an average Plus / Minus of +1.88 and a consistency value of 63.6% when projecting for at least 41 minutes (per the Trends- ark).
Lillard remains an excellent value at $ 10,000 on FanDuel given his 98% Bargain Rating.
Value
Most of the best values on the position can be found on FanDuel, however Markelle Fultz stands out as an exception. He has priced at just $ 4,500 on DraftKings, resulting in a 95% Bargain Rating.
Fultz has posted a Plus / Minus in each of his past four games, including a Plus / Minus of +9.16 in Game 1 vs. the Bucks. He increased his fantasy production to 1.06 DraftKings points per minute in the bubble, and he expects to play about 30 minutes in Game 2. That makes him too cheap at $ 4500.
Fast Break
The Heat made one of the most interesting roster decisions in the playoffs when they decided to bench Kendrick Nunn. Nunn was a starter and a finalist for the Rookie of the Year award most of the year, but he did not play a single minute in Game 1 vs. of Pacers. He was not mentioned on the injury report, and head coach Erik Spoelstra gave no indication that this was just a one-time thing.
With that in mind, Goran Dragic becomes one of the strongest options on the position. He comes off 34 minutes into his final game after entering the starting lineup, and he averages 1.24 DraftKings points per minute in the bubble. That’s a lot of potential production for just $ 5,900 on DraftKings and $ 6,200 on FanDuel.
The Thunder lost Game 1 of their series vs. the Rockets, mar Chris Paul was great from a fantasy perspective. He completed only one assist shoe from a triple-double, and the most encouraging part was that he played 37.2 minutes. Paul was limited to about 30 minutes per game in the regular season, so he will have much higher topside in the playoffs if he continues to watch this kind of workload.
Shooting sports guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook stays out for the Houston Rockets, therefore James Harden would have to look at another extended workload today. He comes from 58.25 DraftKings points in his last game, which basically feels like his deepening. He posted a usage rate of just 37.9%, and Harden’s average usage rate has been closer to 45% this season with Westbrook off the court. The Rockets’ players performed well in Game 1, but Harden might have been asked to score a little more than is not the case today.
Value
Dennis Schroder was terrible in Game 1 vs. the Rockets, and scored just 10.0 FanDuel points. That said, there was actually a lot of fun about Schroder in that game. For starters, he played more than 31.5 minutes off the bench. Schroder has averaged under 1.00 FanDuel points per minute this season, so a lot of playing time bodes well for his future success. He should also see some improvement on his shooting numbers and his peripheral stats from Game 1 forward, which makes him an amazing buy-low target.
Fast Break
Sometimes it’s easy to forget Jimmy Butler. He’s clearly not the easiest player to join – and that’s why he’s in his fourth team in four years – but he’s one you want in your playoffs in the playoffs. He grabbed the stat sheet in Game 1 vs. the Pacers, finished with 51.6 FanDuel points on 28 points, three handballs, four assists, four steals, and two blocks. Overall, he scored at least 40.9 FanDuel points in four of his past five games, and the only exception was a game where he was limited to just 15 minutes.
If the Magic will shake the Bucks again in Game 2, they will need another great performance from now on Terrence Ross. He was excellent Game 1, finishing with 28.5 DraftKings points over 28.5 minutes. That’s not exactly plush production from Ross – he has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season – and he should be locked up today for a similar workload.
Slight forward
Stud
Is it too early to call this a must-win game for the Lakers? Maybe, but they would really prevent you from falling into a 2-0 hole against the Blazers.
LeBron James was absolutely phenomenal in Game 1 of this series, finishing with 23 points, 17 rebounds, and 16 assists. He played more than 41 minutes in that prize draw, and he would have to look at another big workload today. He would continue to scratch in an elite matchup vs. the Blazers, who finished 27th in defensive efficiency in the regular season.
LeBron is also today an excellent value on FanDuel given its Bargain Rating of 88%.
Value
Danilo Gallinari is another member of the Thunder who figures to play more in the playoffs. He comes off 33 minutes in Game 1 vs. the Rockets, and he responded with 39.1 FanDuel points. He also has an Opponent Plus / Minus of +2.23 vs. the Rockets, so he also has an excellent matchup.
Fast Break
The Pacers have one of the most important injury situations to control today. Victor Oladipo did not play in the second half of Game 1 after being hit in the eye, and he is currently listed as a game-time player. He is cautiously expected to play after going through shootaround yesterday, but make sure he checks his status with the tool Labs Insiders.
If he is unable to tackle, Justin Holiday would be an interesting point game at $ 3,700 on FanDuel. He is averaging 0.77 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he can take advantage of a few extra minutes.
Robert Covington stands at DraftKings, where its $ 6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%. He does not shoot the ball in Game 1 of this series, but he has the ability to contribute in any category across the board.
Power Forward
Stud
The Bucks are looking back against the Magic today, so expect to see a great performance from the start Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis was excellent in Game 1 despite the loss, finishing with 65.25 DraftKings points. He also played just under 34.5 minutes, and no one on the field can match his average of 2.04 DraftKings points per minute during the season.
The Bucks lead the slate with an implicit team total of 119.75, so there is nothing too fun about Giannis on today’s slate.
Value
Jeff Green has been a remarkable value for the Rockets in the bubble. He has posted a positive Plus / Minus in each of his past nine games on DraftKings, and he has posted an average Plus / Minus of +10.22 over that time frame. He has a few awards in the sector, but he still has a lot of excitement since he plays about 30 minutes per game.
Fast Break
Giannis is listed as SF on FanDuel so you can focus Anthony Davis if you want to pay at PF. He scored 53.7 FanDuel points in Game 1 vs. the Blazers despite shooting just 8-24 from the field and 12-17 from the free throw line. He has a lot of room for improvement in both divisions in Game 2, and he should continue to take advantage of the lack of Zach Collins.
The Lakers beg for someone other than LeBron and AD to step down, and Kyle Kuzma seems like one of the best potential options. He certainly got a lot of calls from a fantasy perspective to average 0.98 FanDuel points per minute during the restart.
Center
Stud
Nikola Vucevic was absolutely phenomenal in his first postseason game vs. the Bucks. He recorded 55.8 FanDuel points over 36.5 minutes, resulting in a Plus / minus of +20.46.
That said, he looks at a slate of today as a regression candidate. He shot 15-24 from the field and 5-8 from 3-point range, both of which are significantly higher than his average season. Vucevic has also seen a price increase of + $ 400 on FanDuel, so fading him is perfectly acceptable.
Value
Steven Adams comes from 33.4 FanDuel points in his last game despite being limited to just 27.6 minutes. He could see a little more playing time today, and the Rockets are an elite matchup. They have been trading absolutely on the boards ever since Clint Capela, and Adams is running this 10th in total rebound rate this season.
Fast Break
Hassan Whiteside is an interesting value game at $ 4500 on FanDuel. He saw a few extra minutes with Collins off the lineup, and he is averaging 1.41 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Bam Adebayo leads all centers with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where its $ 7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%. Adebayo comes off of 46.0 DraftKings points in Game 1 vs. the Pacers, and he’s a daily threat to pile up a triple-double.
Pictured above: LeBron James # 23 of the Los Angeles Lakers
Photo credit: Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images
