In fact, BYU needed to increase the strength of its schedule to pray at the college football playoffs. The Cougars did just that – focusing on what would be their most difficult game of the season – at Coastal Carolina on Saturday.
Could that be enough to give the Cougars a chance? Should it be Let’s break it down, using the StLustet Playoff Predictor as our guide.
Should Cougars have a chance?
But “should” can be divided into several categories.
Let’s start with: Should the Cougars have a chance based on the selection committee’s historical ced historian? Yes.
Although no non-Power 5 school has made it to the playoffs, the 11-0 BYU will have many metrics in its favor for at least one shot.
BYU ranks 11th in EYSPN’s Football Led Football Power Index (FPI) and is seventh on the Probability Record (SOR) if it wins. On the surface, it doesn’t look great (more on that in a minute), but the Cougars will benefit from a few other factors.
First: Independent status of BYU. In the past, the committee has given less credentials to independents than conference champions, all the rest are equal, but even more credit than teams that can win championships, but haven’t won. It gives BYU a little boost in the event that there aren’t four clear-cut, conference-champion playoff teams.
Second: Damage column. When the S.O.R. Includes losses – and therefore S.O.R. The committee should not be required to use such a rhetorical metric – the committee has historically given more information on the number of losses incurred in its decision. Thus, if BYU finishes 11-0, it will achieve more objective than that.
(One medium length aside: with its current 11-game schedule, BYU will have the worst strength of any unbeaten team’s record in the playoffs in 2016 except Western Michigan.) On the other hand, comparing this season to last season is a bit silly. All these comparisons really tell us that BYU will not be a contender in the normal season, but this is not the normal season, and the bar for the playoffs is low.)
Thus: The Allstate Playoff Predictor – based on the committee’s past behavior – gives BYU a 47% chance of reaching the playoffs if it wins. Very strong! That means the Cougars will probably need help elsewhere – for example, Notre Dame will win the ACC, but nothing unreasonable. Incoming caves, though.
The first of those warnings is that the second way to respond is “should there be a chance to come to BYU”. If the committee says it is looking for the “best” teams and usually the heaviest factors that include the “most qualified” teams, the record and strength of the FPI rank is 4 and 7 with the FPI rank and BPU. 11, respectively. It’s easy to avoid considering the Cougars for the top four if the committee doesn’t want to.
Ultimately, it may not be consistent, and it’s not a matter of the predictor – who manages the committee’s past behavior and therefore gives BYU a better shot – but I think it’s worth noting anyway.
Please Cougars have a chance?
This is a difficult question. As we’ve said all season, we don’t think the 2020 special brand mayhem adds a bit of uncertainty to the playoffs.
There is also a pretty crucial piece of information that we know is not the model. The committee has so far thought less about what it thinks about BYU. Despite the current FPI and the strength of record ranks of 11 11 and 9, respectively, the Cougars are ranked 13th in this week’s CFP rankings, plus zero in the loss column. That’s amazing.
While the committee is not always consistent, it means the BYU should have more ground than the playoff predictor expected.
Second factor: The committee currently has more opinions about Coastal Carolina than our metrics. Chanticklers are ranked only 32nd in the FPI – in contrast to their 18th CFP ranking. It should work in favor of the Cougars; However, should BYU beat Coastal Carolina, there is no guarantee that the latter will be in the top 25 anyway.
While the undefeated BYU team definitely has a chance, ultimately my semi-qualitative take based on all these factors is that for BYU the Predictor’s 47% chance is likely. If he wins, it will be more.
What about Coastal Carolina?
Coastal Carolina (-0-0) is really a team set up for a better order here. After bringing in the Cougars at the last minute to increase their own strength of the schedule, the Chantiklers will be considered fifth in terms of record strength if they win. So are they sudden playoff contenders?
The playoff predictor doesn’t think so, giving only 3% shots if the chanticles win. What is the difference? Team quality. While Coastal Carolina’s rule would be a little better than BYU’s, FPI Chanticlers don’t consider almost any team good. Our model team thinks BYU is 8 points better than Coastal Carolina on the neutral zone.
Lauren Poe contributed to this article.
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