WASHINGTON, DC – JUNE 30: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) speaks during a press … [+]
On Monday, after a week of negotiations between the White House and the Republican Senate Party, Senate Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) unveiled the series of bills that make up the HEALS Act. The HEALS Act means the Health, Financial Assistance, Liability Protection and Schools Act.
In his speech on Monday, Senator McConnell said:
“That is what this majority of the Senate has assembled. And that’s what Presidents Alexander, Blunt, Collins, Graham, Grassley, Rubio, and Shelby, and Senators Cornyn and Romney, are presenting today. They will come to the flat shortly to present their components.
Together, their bills make up the HEALS – Health Law; economic assistance; liability protection; and schools. “
He was soon followed by that series of Republican senators, each of whom discussed a different part of the upcoming legislation. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has previously said she opposes the idea of various bills, and it’s still unclear what form the HEALS Act will take.
The eight laws of the HEALS Law
If you’re in the mood to read a little bit, here are the eight separate bills from the HEALS Act. They were introduced in the Senate on July 27:
If you’re not interested in hundreds of pages of legislative text, Sarah Hansen of Forbes has this great recap of every bill.
As expected with any major legislation, lawmakers have already been taking it apart, but there are several key reasons why I think the HEALS Act (in its current form) feels doomed and won’t pass before August 7.
1. Not all Republican senators support these bills
The most surprising part of this whole process is the fracture of the Senate Republican Party. When bills need to be passed quickly, the parties tend to come together and speak with one voice. This is not what is happening with these bills.
It is not yet clear how many other senators in the Republican Party agree with the current proposals. The main concern seems to be its immense cost.
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) was quoted by CNN as saying “there is significant resistance to another trillion dollars. The answer to these challenges will not simply be to get money out of Washington, but the answer to these challenges will be to make the people back to work. And as it stands now, I think you will likely see several Republicans opposing this bill and expressing serious concerns. “
Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) previously expressed his discontent over the bill more than a week ago:
Cost was one of the reasons a payroll tax cut was excluded. It was a key demand by the Trump Administration that it did not make the proposal.
The bills, however, include several items that are not directly related to the pandemic, such as $ 1.75 billion for a new FBI headquarters. Many Republican senators have opposed that particular provision.
As a reminder, the Senate is made up of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and 2 Independents (who meet with Democrats). Without broad support from the Republican Party, these bills are unlikely to pass the Senate.
2. Democrats demand change too
Remember that the House of Representatives passed the Heroes Act in mid-May, more than two months ago, and offers what Democrats envisioned as a sequel to the Care Act.
The House of Representatives has to pass the same legislation before the President can enact the HEALS Act.
Democrats in the House of Representatives have already begun to identify aspects of the bill’s areas with which they disagree, and there are many.
Speaker Pelosi hinted at where the negotiations would begin in an appearance on Monday afternoon on MSNBC:
Insufficient federal unemployment insurance
Democrats are not satisfied with the size and structure of the new federal unemployment insurance benefits. The HEALS Act replaced the previous federal unemployment benefit of $ 600 per week with a much lower benefit of $ 200 per week through September.
This was to buy time for states to modernize their unemployment software to support an unemployment benefit based on a percentage limited to 70% of lost wages, with up to $ 500 paid by the federal government.
It is not yet clear if this is enough time, since the National Association of State Workforce Agencies estimated that it would take between 8 and 20 weeks to implement this system. The bill includes a provision that allows states to request an exemption, if they cannot implement a system on time, and continue to pay the fixed amount for an additional two months.
No eviction moratorium
The Care Act created a moratorium on evictions that expired on July 24. If you lived in a building with a federally backed mortgage, your landlord would not be able to initiate an eviction process. He was still responsible for paying the rent, but he didn’t have to live in fear of being kicked out if he didn’t pay.
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow previously said a moratorium would be included, but that does not appear to be the case.
No additional help to states
The bills did not include any additional aid to states, but added flexibility to how state and local governments could use the funds provided by the Care Act. This was a key part of the Heroes Act, as it provided more than $ 1 trillion in additional aid to states, which are experiencing significant revenue deficits due to closings.
Without additional help, state and local governments may be forced to suspend or fire employees. Republicans would be expected to favor additional aid to states in the same way that they support additional aid to businesses that suffer.
The reason Republicans are against extra help is because some state and local governments have had pre-pandemic financial problems. For example, The Pew Charitable Trusts reported that the gap in state pension funds in 2018 was $ 1.24 trillion. They see the extra help as a bailout of poorly managed state and local finances.
3. There is not much time
The Senate is scheduled for recess on August 7 and the House of Representatives is scheduled for recess on July 31, that’s in two days. Fortunately, Speaker of the House of Representatives Pelosi has said they are willing to skip or delay their recess. Senate Leader McConnell has not said whether to skip or delay the Senate recess. still.
As such, I view August 7 as the actual deadline for a settlement unless Senator McConnell indicates otherwise. This leaves very little time for all parties to negotiate an acceptable agreement on the bills, draft new legislation, pass it, and obtain the President’s signature.
Even if it is finally approved, this leaves several weeks in which unemployed workers, who are now without federal eviction protection, will not receive any additional federal unemployment benefits.
The next few days of negotiations will be revealing.
Additional resources
Next stimulus package released today: $ 1,200 stimulus check, reduced unemployment aid under the HEALS Act
Facing the next stimulus package: the three key conflicts in the next stimulus bill
How soon could I get a second stimulus check?
The income limit on the second stimulus check is likely to be over $ 40,000
The next stimulus project will likely have these three main changes
Second-stimulus controls must be recurring and direct, 156 leading economists urge
The next $ 600 federal unemployment benefit is likely to be smaller
Second stimulus check update: here is everything we know now
