The 49ers could trade Jimmy Garoppolo after next season, but not because of his game. They could exchange it for your contract.
Garoppolo is a good quarterback. When the 49ers signed him with an extension in 2018, they paid him the prevailing fee for good quarterbacks. And that rate has become outrageously high. NFL teams pay way too good quarterbacks. There is a quarterback financial bubble in the league, and it could burst soon.
The teams believe they must have a good quarterback to win the Super Bowl. And there aren’t many above-average quarterbacks in the NFL. So teams pay quarterbacks above average more than they should.
In 2020, three quarterbacks will earn at least 14 percent of their teams’ salary cap: Russell Wilson, Jared Goff, and Dak Prescott. Keep in mind that no quarterback has won a Super Bowl and has won 14 percent of his team’s limit. Steve Young won a Super Bowl in 1994 by winning 13.1 percent of the 49ers’ cap, the highest percentage for a Championship quarterback.
Therefore, there is no evidence that overpaying good quarterbacks is smart.
And yet, in 2021, at least nine quarterbacks will represent more than 14 percent of their teams’ limit: Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Carson Wentz, Matt Stafford, Kirk Cousins, Wilson and Goff. . And Ryan Freaking Tannehill will win 13.7 percent of the Titans cap. And we are not counting Patrick Mahomes or Dak Prescott, who could sign huge extensions for next year.
Which brings us back to Garoppolo. It’s not absurdly expensive, but it’s on the edge. Last season, he won just 8.6 percent of the 49ers’ cap, which was reasonable. But in 2020, he’ll win 12.9 percent of the limit, a huge jump. This explains why the 49ers were unable to stay with DeForest Buckner or Emmanuel Sanders. And in 2021, Garoppolo will win 12.5 percent of the 49ers’ cap. Only Young has won a Super Bowl with a higher capitalization percentage.
Garoppolo now needs to play even better to make up for the losses of Buckner and Sanders. But what if Garoppolo can’t increase his game? What if he continues to play well in 2020, but the 49ers’ record is 9-7 and the playoffs are lost? How can they recharge and improve while Garoppolo occupies more than 12 percent of their salary cap?
The easiest way would be to trade it and free up $ 24.1 million in compounding space, and use that money in other positions, like the cornerback, wide receiver and tight end.
Then the 49ers could replace Garoppolo with Nick Mullens, who is cheap and average, maybe better than average. He posted above-average numbers on a bad team as a rookie in 2018. And he could split time with a quarterback that the 49ers would recruit next year. It could be his Tayson Hill, the Saints Wildcat quarterback, who mostly runs but also happens sometimes.
Neither Mullens nor the rookie quarterback would be as good as Garoppolo, but together they would give the 49ers above-average production from the quarterback position with almost nothing to gain. And they would create a more diverse offense that would be more difficult to prepare for.
We know Wildcat works in the NFL – the Ravens proved the past two seasons with Lamar Jackson. Ten years ago, the Wildcat was a trick because teams used riders like Wildcats. Now, the NCAA offers an almost infinite supply of Wildcat athletic quarterbacks who can run and throw. So the wildcat is no longer a trick. It is a complete offense that each team must incorporate into their existing schemes.
Which means the quarterback committee could become the next trend in the NFL. The Patriots could use one this year with Jarrett Stidham and Cam Newton. And the Saints already wear one with Drew Brees and Taysom Hill. When Brees retires, Hill will likely have even more playing time, but he will probably never become the full-time franchise quarterback – he’s not a good enough passer. He will probably join a platoon with a pocket pin, perhaps Jameis Winston.
Quarterbacks of large sums of franchises could turn into dinosaurs, just like hood runners did for large sums of money.
Garoippolo could still have an excellent career. But you may not stick with the 49ers for the long haul or make as much money as you expect.
It is not your fault. This is a business.
