Why isn’t Trump’s message on hard crime breaking through in the United States?

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – As President Donald Trump’s support in the US suburbs erodes amid concerns over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, he has returned to a family campaign issue: trying to scare voters not to endorse Democrat Joe Biden in November.

From deploying federal agents to confront protesters in cities like Portland, Oregon, to running ads portraying a lawless and dangerous United States under the Biden presidency, Trump has positioned himself as the candidate who will keep the country safe.

But this month’s Reuters / Ipsos polls show that white suburban Americans are far more concerned with the economy and health care than crime, a sign that Trump’s strategy may be at odds with the bloc’s priorities. Critical vote that narrowly won in 2016 and must win again to secure a second term.

When asked “what is the most important problem facing the United States today,” 21% said the economy and 21% said health care. Only 6% reported crime, according to the July 15-21 national opinion poll, which included 1,603 American adults who identified as white and lived in the suburbs.

But concern about COVID-19 and Trump’s management of him were deep.

Among white Americans in the suburbs, 81% said they were personally concerned about the spread of the virus. Forty-one percent of those suburban white Americans approved of the way Trump handled the coronavirus, 12 points less than a similar poll conducted in March.

While 42% of all Americans thought Biden would be better at dealing with COVID-19 compared to 33% who said Trump was better, white suburban Americans were more divided over which candidate was best equipped to take out the nation of the crisis, with 40% saying Trump and 38% saying Biden.

The data suggests that Trump, who follows Biden in national polls, could shore up his support in the suburbs and improve his chances of winning the Nov. 3 election with stronger leadership in the health and economic crises rather than doubling. claims that the country is less secure with Biden in the White House.

“His public order message seems more geared toward reviving his base than winning over the suburban,” said Dave Wasserman, a nonpartisan analyst for the Cook Policy Report. “There is no way that Trump can win the election unless he changes his numbers on managing COVID.”

‘EXTREMELY MOVING PROBLEM

Aides to the Republican president insist his harsh crime message resonates with suburban voters after months of protests over racial injustice and police brutality against African Americans and calls by progressives to “impeach” the police.

“The violence, the illegality, is disgusting. This is what Joe Biden and the Democrats stand for, ”said Rick Gorka, a senior member of the Republican National Committee and part of Trump’s re-election campaign. “Our data shows that this is an extremely moving issue, especially for suburban voters and those who are undecided.”

Gorka, who declined to share the data, said the president had been involved in the message and advertising strategy.

Biden does not support out-of-pocket police departments. However, a television campaign ad for Trump that portrays an older woman being attacked by thieves while waiting on hold trying to call emergency services ends with the slogan: “You will not be safe in Joe Biden’s America.”

“Biden will destroy his neighborhood and his American dream,” Trump said in a tweet to “Suburban Housewives of America” ​​last week. “I will preserve it and make it even better!”

In his latest attempt at suburban support, Trump said Wednesday that his administration was rescinding an Obama-era regulation aimed at combating discriminatory housing practices and segregation.

Critics attacked the measure, with Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren describing it as “a racist fear treater.”

Trump’s focus on fear echoes his 2016 campaign, when he described immigrants from Mexico as criminals. This time, he cautions about “anarchists and agitators” whom he says the Democrat-led cities have been unable to control.

The Oregon governor said on Wednesday that the federal government had agreed to withdraw Portland agents, while the Justice Department said it would send law enforcement officials to Cleveland, Milwaukee and Detroit, all in field states of crucial battles, in an expansion of a separate program aimed at reducing a wave of violent crime in some cities.

Kyle Kondik, a nonpartisan analyst at the University of Virginia Policy Center, believes Trump has ordered federal police to enter Portland “to create terrifying images for suburban voters.”

“But does not matter. For the message to resonate, it must feel more relevant to more people, “added Kondik.

WINNING THE BASE, TOGETHER SELL IN SUBURBS

According to Reuters / Ipsos polls, Trump’s net approval in the suburbs decreased by 17 percentage points from March to July as the coronavirus swept the country. Biden led Trump by 11 points in the suburbs, above a 6-point lead four months ago.

Trump is “fueling confrontation and conflict” to divert American attention from his failed leadership in the pandemic, Biden spokesman TJ Ducklo said. “Clearly, Americans are not buying it.”

Trump’s response to anti-racism protests was viewed favorably by Republicans in a Reuters / Ipsos poll conducted Monday and Tuesday, with 78% saying he approved, a 67% increase in mid-June.

Suburban voters were more suspicious of his motives. About 44% of suburban Americans said they thought federal agents were being used for political purposes, while 37% thought they were there primarily to restore law and order.

Mary Aponte, 38, a mother in the Bucks County, Pennsylvania suburb, said she was not a Trump supporter, but agreed that the police need support and criminals must face the consequences.

“I fear what will happen in major cities if we put Biden in office when it comes to the police,” he said, adding that he continued to have conflicts over his election in November because he also sympathizes with the Black Lives Matter movement.

Tricia Kalmar, a 45-year-old suburban mother in Delaware, Ohio, said she did not believe Trump’s public order messages would work in her community.

“I don’t feel like any of the mothers here feel threatened by the protests,” said Kalmar, who voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016, but also regularly voted for Republicans. “Even those who do not support the protests are not concerned about their safety here in the suburbs.”