If President Trump wins the Electoral Rally in College Ledge on Tuesday, at least one voter – and probably only one – will be able to say, “I told you.”
That person is Robert Kehley, whose Trafalgar group has announced a steady stream of battlefield-state elections this year, including President Joseph R. Biden is very competitive against Jr., and mostly in states where the majority of voters have consistently shown Biden. Thread.
Trafalgar does not disclose its methods, and is considered too vague to be taken seriously by other voters. Mostly, they dismiss it as an outlayer. But for Mr. Kahli, “I told you” is already a calling gender card.
In 2001, for the first time in public, Trafalgar was the pay firm whose state polls most effectively suppressed Mr. Trump’s upset victory. Republican strategist Mr. Kehley also said the exact number of votes in the Electoral College ledge that Mr. Trump and Hillary Clinton would receive – 306 to 227 – although his predictions about which states would get there was a bit off.
Liberal concerns are spreading about whether to trust the vote, with Mr Kahli wearing a gregarious, gooey-and-bow t-shirt Mr Kahli has recently been in demand on cable news. In addition to frequent appearances on Fox News, Mr. Kahley was on CNN last week, explaining to Michael Smirkonish why he thought the president would run with an easy victory – and defending himself against the battery of criticism Mr. Smerkonish called, one by one, from Mr. Kahli’s colleagues .
Amid pre-election media coverage of the case theory – he posted it on Trafalgar’s site on Monday. With more than a million clicks, he said – the big question seems to be: is it possible to trust someone whose poll is constantly giving? Mr. Trump has provided enough support for a narrow lead in most swing states, and who refuses to reveal anything about how he gets his data?
In his last few polls of this election season, Mr. Kehley gave Mr. Trump a two- to three-point advantage in North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan and Florida, and a huge lead elsewhere. That puts him in a very far-flung line with almost all major voters, whose polls in the states are usually showing Mr Biden along the edge. This year like things like different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different. Different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different different.
Above all, Mr. Kahley’s approach focuses on the belief that everyone is a liar, but in particular Rs. This has been largely denied by the social sciences, but it has not softened its conviction. To hear him explain, traditional voters (he calls them “dinosaurs”) are crippled. “Social Desirability Prejudice”: Respondents say they have a tendency to say what they think, not what they really believe. In Mr. Trump’s America, he says, the problem has gotten worse.
“I think people never say what they say, never,” Mr. Kehley said in a recent phone interview from Atlanta, where he lives. “We cannot eliminate the social desirability bias, we can only reduce it.”
Four years ago, he asked people, both of them, who they would support for the presidency and whom they would consider their own. Neighbors Will support. This year, he said, he is using other means to achieve the same result.
But he is not saying what they are. Mr. Kahli made no real explanation about his voting system; The methods page on Trafalgar’s website reads like a vague advertisement for his services and explains how, without clarifying his opinion, social desirability faces bias. He says he uses a combination of text messages, emails and phone calls to reach a specific audience of voters – some through automated and some through live callers.
Traditional polyesters, which follow long-tested and extensively effective methods for sampling, are not buying. Also, if there was such a thing as a “shy Trump supporter” on any issue – anyone admitting they plan to vote for the president or the president – the stormy, rally-holding Trump said the species was virtually extinct during the presidency. Dr. Daniel Niall Cox, Poll and Referendum Specialist at the American Enterprise Institute.
“People don’t feel ashamed to support Mr. Trump,” Mr. Cox said. Over the past four years, surveys seeking to quantify the impact of the so-called “shy Trump” have generally found little evidence to support it.
Late last month, Five Thirty Eight Net Silver got his hands on the cross tabs of Trafalgar Pole in Michigan which is still ongoing. It found that more than a quarter of Democrats and Republicans expected to vote for the other party’s candidate, compared to almost all other polls, with Mr. Silver calling the figures “just crazy.”
Mr. Kahli, of course, is of no use to the skepticism of experts. He doesn’t seem to care if he adheres to the best practices of the American Association of Public Opinion Research, the Standard Bearing Trade Organization, and Mr. Trump says he’s wow at whether the United States’ NATO allies respect him.
Among his voting colleagues, the main thing is that Mr. Kehley lacks transparency about his methods.
Josh Pacek, a professor of communications, data and political science at the University of Michigan, said it was not possible to rely on numbers without understanding the methods the firm uses to reach survey respondents.
He said, “It’s wildly inappropriate not to tell me what mods you use just to draw your sample, but how special you did it. Its general rule: “If someone is not transparent you can usually assume they are absurd.”
There’s something undeniably alluring about the story of a self-buckling, standard-busting Southern Polster who rode in 2016 with a fresh approach and falsified all the big stores. Born in Georgia and raised in South Carolina by a banker and a teacher, Mr. Kehley developed a passion for politics as a child and a major at the University of South Carolina. He soon came under the wing of Republican strategist Lee Waterwater’s Acolyte Polster Road Shelley and eventually started his own firm.
Named after the battles of the Napoleonic Wars when the British navy returned French and Spanish ships to the French high seas, Trafalgar, which they run alone, has been surveying on behalf of customers since 2006.
Although most of Trafalgar’s polls have been for conservative and Republican consumers – in the second half of the traditional norm – it has not come out reliably when surveys are paid for by biased interests.
In 2010, Mr. Kahli was arrested and taken to court for voting, known as a robotic gender – for violating the law on the use of automatic calling machines. The charges against him were eventually dropped, and he later successfully sued the state’s law enforcement agency, declaring South Carolina’s ban on RoboClo unconstitutional.
Mr Kahli said he was voting legally, with the aim of really understanding the views of voters – and that he had declared a “dead-on” result. During the Republican primaries in the 201st Republic, he saw the enthusiasm of many working-class voters who had long felt alienated from politics and helped Mr. Trump’s ascending power.
“I’ve been getting these stories about people who showed up to vote and didn’t know how to use voting machines, they hadn’t voted in so long,” Mr Kehley said. So he began to investigate who those people might be, and used data available online to create a list of about 50 lifestyle traits – including, for example, whether they had a phishing license – turned into droves of what kind of low-engagement voters were. He used that data to make sure the voter file was polled General election advance.
In 2018, Mr. Kehley again set a successful track record for polling Senate and governor races, including a survey that properly suppressed the victories of Ron Descentis and Rick Scott in Florida.
This year, he has continued to see strong support for Trump among these voters, and he believes other voters are again underestimating his importance. One of Mr. Kahli’s theories is that it takes more than five times to call a consensual voter to complete a poll, rather than an objective vote. Others in the field say they have found no evidence to support this in their own work.
But Mr Kahli insisted that voters should believe that they are adhering to a scientific method and that is why they are taking a representative sample of voters. It goes back to the political divisions of the country, and how unwilling Americans are to communicate with each other nowadays with a breach of suspicion. In a sense, he has positioned himself as a stalwart of Trumpism, voicing a silent majority – or at least, a majority in the Elect Oral Ral K College Ledge – knowing that elites find his views offensive, and therefore will not express them freely. Just someone.
“Lee Atwater drills everyone around me that you have to get out of the head of the politicians and go to the head of the Six Six-Pack,” Mr Kehley said. “What do the average person believe? And to do that I prefer to talk to the average person. I like to follow up on voting calls and chat with people for 30 minutes. “
Mr. Kehley has no need to disclose his techniques, despite the universal skepticism about his work by his colleagues. “I have given away enough; “I’m not giving more now,” he said, arguing that it was a mistake to even tell people about his “neighborhood question,” which some other companies have since adopted in their own surveys.
“I think we’ve developed something that’s very different from others, and I’m not really interested in telling people how to do it.” “Just judge us by whether it’s right.”
