(Reuters) – When polls show Texans continue to be frustrated with President Donald Trump’s response amid a massive resurgence in coronavirus cases, Democrats say they have a real chance to turn a long-held dream into reality : winning the state presidential contest for the first time in more than four decades.
PHILO PHOTO: Democratic presidential candidate and former vice president Joe Biden talks about his plans to fight racial inequality at a campaign event in Wilmington, Delaware, US, July 28, 2020. REUTERS / Jonathan Ernst /
In recent weeks, Joe Biden’s campaign has aired television ads specifically targeting Texans – the first time a Democratic presidential candidate has done so in a quarter of a century, according to the state party – and made her first haircut.
Texas is one of the states targeted by a $ 280 million advertising blitz that unveiled the campaign last week, part of a broader strategy aimed at Republican-leaning states, including Georgia, Iowa and Ohio, to put in play ahead of the Nov. 3 election against Republican Trump.
With polls showing that Biden has a national leadership over Trump and is effectively tied in Texas, Democrats say a concerted effort in the state could expand his viable paths to the White House.
“Because of the pandemic, the battlefield has grown,” said Democratic U.S. Rep. Filemon Vela, who represents a South Texas seat.
But skepticism remains about conservative Texas becoming a real swing state. Trump celebrated it four years ago with nine percentage points, and some strategists expect his status to plummet as the election draws to a close.
Trump campaign spokeswoman Samantha Cotten said Democrats were “delusional” to think they could win Texas.
“We welcome the Biden campaign to put their money on fire by investing in the Lone Star State,” she said in a statement.
Texas is an expensive place to advertise on television given the large and multiple media markets, and Biden staff recognize that the campaign is unlikely to raise the kind of large sum that a full court press requires.
At a fundraiser last week, Biden showed interviews showing that he is bound to move forward, but said the money needed to compete in Texas is a “big stretch.”
If Biden wins Texas, it’s pretty sure he’ll already won enough other states to win the presidency, suggesting that campaign funds can be better spent in clearly swinging states like Pennsylvania or Florida.
The stakes in Texas are enormous: The 38 votes in the Electoral College, which determines the presidential winner, are only second in California in the demand for a 270 majority majority.
Democratic officials argue that even a modest investment could pay dividends by forcing Trump to borrow money from other states while profiting from candidates for down-ballot.
Democrats must snap nine seats in the state of Texas to take control in 2021, when the state will redraw congressional district lines next decade. The state also has several highly contested congressional campaigns as a potentially competitive Senate contest.
Democratic state officials, state lawmakers and members of Congress have pressed their case with the Biden campaign, according to interviews with multiple officials. Much to the chagrin of Democratic Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke’s unexpected finish in 2018, when he came within three percentage points of undecided Republican Ted Cruz.
“There’s a real change going on here,” said U.S. Representative Colin Allred, a Democrat who overturned a Republican-held seat in Dallas two years ago. “I told them I think they should compete here.”
SIZE an opportunity
In an interview, Biden State Deputy Director Molly Ritner said the fashionable purchase of $ 65,000 in the July campaign was fueled by the spike in Texas coronavirus infections.
“We basically saw an opportunity,” Ritner said. “We’ve put 17 states on the map, and on any given day we look at that map and try to keep as many paths as possible to 270.”
It may be a long shot for Biden, but some Republicans have sounded the alarm. Cruz told Air Force reporters in late July that the weakening of support for Trump in suburban Texas has come into play.
Karen Perkins, 60, a resident of Arlington, is a lifelong Republican, but said Trump’s treatment of the pandemic did not make her sure about how she would vote in November.
“He was just visiting Texas, and he got off the plane without a mask,” she said of Trump. “I always said I was very, very Republican, but he’s starting to turn me down.”
The chances of the Democrats in 2020 rely on a combination of factors. In addition to the suburban shift, the state’s Latino, Black, and Asian populations – all of whom vote heavily Democratic – have grown faster than the white population.
Since 2016, more than 2 million Texans have registered to vote. A majority are minorities, and 1.6 million are under the age of 35, according to the state party.
“It’s a perfect storm of demographic change and suburban change at the same time,” said Jessica Post, director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which supports candidates for statehouse.
If Biden’s appeal as a moderate can reduce Trump’s margins in rural areas, Democrats said, then his advantage in urban and suburban districts could bring him over the finish line.
Turnout, especially among minority voters, will be important. Using data lists, the state party has targeted hundreds of thousands of people who have moved to Texas from Democratic states but have yet to register. Meanwhile, the party’s Latin outreach team distributed online toolkits to help Hispanic voters register their friends and family.
Texas does not have partisan voter registration. But the trends prove that the “Democratic transformation of Texas” is inevitable, if it hasn’t already happened, according to Manny Garcia, the executive director of the state party.
“Texas is not in play because a dramatic number of Republicans … are coming to the Democratic Party,” Garcia said. “Texas is in play because there are more of us than there are.”
Report by Joseph Ax; Additional Reporting by Steve Holland; Edited by Colleen Jenkins and Daniel Wallis
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