BYU Football 8L is 8-0 and ranked 8th in the AP poll. With only the states of North Alabama and San Diego currently left on schedule, the Cougars have an 89% chance of remaining undefeated, according to ESPN FPI. If BYU completes the season unbeaten, they will have the opportunity to play in the New Year’s Six (NY6) Bowl Games, a new game of college league football. Without a conference connection, however, the Cougars will need to make big bids to play in the NY6 game. Today, we take a look at the big bids on the previous NY6 and determine where BYU needs to rank to make the NY6 Bowl.
First, it is important to note that the number of at-large bids may vary depending on which NY6 venues host the Legge Football Off Play host and which conference playoffs. Obviously, we don’t know who will go to the playoffs. But we do know that the Sugar Bowl and Rose Bowl are hosting CFPs this year that have the same circulation as 2017 and 2014. 2014 and 2017 were on the same rotation as 2020, so we will do the most compared to these two years.
It is also important to note that the College Ledge Football Playoff rankings determine who is invited to the playoffs and who receives the highest bids. The first 2020 CFP rankings will be released on November 24th. If you’re wondering how those rankings compare to the AP poll, head over to an analysis of that topic later this week.
Finally, it is more important to note that BYU does not qualify for the group of five NY6 spots. I have seen some analysts misunderstand that. The G5 NY6 spot is awarded to the highest ranked G5 team in the final College Football Playoff Rankings. BYU is not in the G5 conference. Therefore, they do not qualify for automatic G5 bids. If the season ends today, the G5 representative will be Cincinnati. BYU has not competed with Cincinnati for equal place in the NY6 game.
Without further ado, let’s look at 2014:
2014 NY6 Bowls
- Sugar Bowl: Alabama (1) vs Ohio State (4)
- Rose Bowl: Reg Reagan (2) vs Florida State (3)
- Cotton Bowl: Baylor (5, auto) vs. Michigan State (8, bulk)
- Peach Bowl: TCU (6, Large) vs. Ole Miss (9, Large)
- Fiesta Bowl: Arizona (bulk 10) vs. Boise State (20, Auto G5)
- Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech (12, auto) vs Mississippi State (8, auto)
In 2014, the highest ranked team in the CFP rankings that was excluded from NY6 was Kansas State # 11. Why was Kansas State excluded despite being in the top 12? They did not qualify for the big bids.
To understand the big bids, you need to understand the difference between three NY6 Contract Bowls and three NY6 Access Access Bowls:
NY6 Contract Bowls
This bowl is under contract with a specific P5 conference. If these bowls do not host the CFP semifinals, they invite the same conferences each year:
- Rose Bowl (Champ vs. PAC-12 Champ / PAC-12 Runner-up if the champ goes to the playoffs, Big Ten Champ / Big Ten Runner-up if the play-off goes)
- Sugar Bowl (SEC Champ / SEC Runner up if Champ Playoff vs. Big 12 Champ / Big 12 Runner up if Champ Playoff goes)
- Orange Bowl (ACC Champ / ACC Runner-up if Champ goes to the most available playoffs available from SEC, Big Ten and Notre Dame)
NY6 Access Access Bowls
The Bowl CFP takes hosting in the semifinals but is not under contract with certain conferences. If they are not hosting the playoffs, they are hosting P5 champions who have not been invited to the playoffs and the highest ranked G5 team. If there are spots left, they extend the big invitations based on the CFP ranking. Matchups are based on geography and the competitiveness of sports.
- Cotton Bowl
- Fiesta Bowl
- Peach Bowl
The good news for BYU fans is that the Contract Bowls are hosting the CFP Semifinals which means there are more big venues available this season than any other rotation.
2017 NY6 Bowls
- Sugar Bowl: Clemson (1) vs Alabama (4)
- Rose Bowl: Oklahoma (2) vs Georgia (3)
- Cotton Bowl: Ohio State (5, Auto) vs. USC (8, Auto)
- Peach Bowl: Ub Burn (7, Largest) vs. UCF (12, Auto G5)
- Fiesta Bowl: Penn State (9, max) vs Washington (11, max)
- Orange Bowl: Wisconsin (6 auto toe) vs Miami (10 auto)
In 2017, the highest ranked team in the CFP rankings that was excluded from NY6 was Stanford # 13. This was a rare year – each of the top 12 teams in the CFP rankings was invited to play in the NY6.
So what
NY6 bids depend on which conventions make the playoffs, so, we don’t know exactly where BYU will need to rank to qualify for the big bid on NY6. However, Each team is ranked # 9 or higher NY6 has been invited to the game since 2014. In other words, nine is the magic number where BYU needs to finish this season in order.
If the season came to an end today
If the season ended today and the AP poll had a CFP ranking, here’s how NY6 might look like:
- Sugar Bowl: Alabama (1) vs Clemson (4)
- Rose Bowl: Notre Dame (2) vs Ohio State (3)
- Cotton Bowl: Indiana (10, bulk) vs. Oklahoma State (14, auto)
- Peach Bowl: Florida (6, bulk) vs. Cincinnati (7, G to G 5)
- Fiesta Bowl: Reg Reagan (11, auto) vs BYU (8, large)
- Orange Bowl: Miami (9 auto toe) vs Texas aAndM (5 auto toe)
Update: Original estimates forgot 12 big This has now been updated to include the larger 12.
It is important to remember that AP polls can vary significantly in CFP rankings. Again, stay tuned for more analysis on that topic this weekend.
If you have any questions, feel free to ask them in the comments section.
