Former Indian top right-hander and current LGT No. 3 prospect Triston McKenzie, 23, will make his Premier League debut against the Detroit Tigers tonight.
Now, most readers here at Let’s Go Tribe are pretty big fans of McKenzie, as if they had placed him the last two seasons before injuries, but what do those who are paid to take a professional look at young talent think of him?
Let’s start with earlier in his underage career. McKenzie was a first-round (42nd overall) pickup by the Indians in the 2015 draft, thus entering his professional baseball career with a fairly high-profile entry. Here are some scouts to say about him from the time he was drafted to the present day:
Indian Director of Amateur Scouting Brad Grant – Cleveland.com (June 2015)
Standing 6-foot-5, the 160-pound hurler from Royal Palm Beach High School in Florida placed a 0.79 ERA and hit 157 batters in 91 innings as a senior.
“He has a lot of head for him,” Grant said. ‘It’s a long, thin frame, but what we like about Triston is a fastball up to 93. He’s another who can spin a curveball, a man with a good sense of change. Triston also throws up a lot of strikes and has a very good delivery. ”
McKenzie ran through the Indian minor league system, and guaranteed Carolina League Pitcher of the Year honors at High-A Lynchburg in 2017. Here’s what Baseball America had to say about him at the time.
Baseball America (2017)
“McKenzie stands out for his pitchability as well as for his game. He deserves praise for his makeup and understanding of his craft. That, along with his control, helps his game track even more. His fastball can get up to 95 mph, but he works more typically in the low 90s. More power would help him keep his speed deeper in games. He uses his height to his advantage and strikes down in the zone. He gets good depth on his curveball, which is a swing-and-miss offer. His change lies behind his other two pitches, but has the potential to be an above-average offer as he becomes more comfortable throwing it. Improving his change and getting stronger so he can maintain his speed deeper in games are his two biggest tasks ahead. McKenzie’s combination of upside and advanced pitchability has raised a lot of concerns about his future. ”
Baseball America had extremely high expectations of McKenzie in the 2019 season.
Baseball America (2019)
“McKenzie will retire at the end of 2019 as a 21-year-old and move to the big leagues, where he has the front to be a front-line starter. At this point, he is not much of a challenge and he has a chance to earn a place in the big leagues in 2019. But with the full rotation of Cleveland’s big leagues, the Indians can pay to force McKenzie the problem with a strong show in the upper levels of minors. ”
Unfortunately, injuries slowed down McKenzie’s meteoric rise. He missed half of the 2018 season with poverty in the forearm, and then missed the entire 2019 with a penalty of upper back that would not heal. Finally healthy, his start was delayed this season due to the cancellation of the 2020 season less competition due to the COVID-19 pandemic. He has never played above Double-A.
MLB Pipeline has currently named McKenzie as the No. 9 Cleveland Indians prospect. Here’s what it had to say about him in her 2020 profile:
MLB Pipeline (2020)
‘As healthy, McKenzie has a fine mix of three pitches starting with a 91-95 mph fastball that plays well above his speed, thanks to his command, extension, angle and high spinning speed. His curveball from the upper 70s also classifies as a plus offering with good shape and spin. He keeps left-handers at bay with a solid fading change.
As promising as his game is, McKenzie’s sense of pitching is even more impressive. Although he is still growing in his super-lean frame, he repeats his delivery well and he delivers quality strike after quality strike. He needs to add strength and prove that he can handle the workload of a starter, and more muscle can also mean more speed. ”
FanGraphs ranks McKenzie as the Tribe’s 10th overall prospect in its preseason rankings. Here’s what Eric Longehagen had to say about him:
FanGraphs (2020)
In the five years since he was drafted, McKenzie has added five pounds of reported weight (he was reported at 160 on running day, and is now 165); his fastball, at the peak, was 90-93, touching 95 (88-92 in high school) and was 90-94 in camp this spring before the shutdown. The way his delivery and fastball work – it’s misleading, creates flat corners at the top of the zone and really wears – makes me think it’s going to play at that speed, and the same goes for McKenzie’s curveball, which despite good depth has poor spin rates. He needs to find a third pitch, and two years ago did not really have a chance to do so due to the injuries. At this point I think it’s more likely to be a slider / cutter than a change, which I think would be further now if it worked.
As it stands now, health and sustainability seem to be the biggest limiting factors to McKenzie’s success. The Detroit Tigers are the perfect foil for him to make his MLB debut, having lost nine of their last 10 games. It’s time to see what this young man is capable of.
