What can LeBron’s previous Top Seeded teams tell us about this?


LeBron James is obviously no stranger to the postseason: He has missed the playoffs only three times in his 17 seasons in the NBA, including his disastrous inaugural season with the Los Angeles Lakers. But even though LeBron has been a contestant in the finals, he just hasn’t been preferred by seed to get there. Only five teams led by James are no. 1 seed has been in their respective conference: the 2008-09 and 2009-10 Cleveland Cavaliers, the Miami-Miami 2012-13, the Cavs 2015-16 and the Lakers this season.

James played a very different role on each of those teams, and this season it has been no different. We’ve already explored how James has transformed himself this year into one of the best point guards in the league, with a career high in assists per game. But even outside of changing positions, he has changed his game every time his team has a no. 1 seed has grabbed. His evolution this season led to production that looked more out of its form on title-winning teams in 2013 and 2016 than on the two No. 1 seeds that fell short.

LeBron’s utilization rate was lower on his title teams

LeBron James’ points and assists per game, 3-point attempts, effective field goal percentage and usage rate on his five top-seeded playoff teams

Season PLOECH Won title? Points / game Assists / game 3-point atts. EFG% Use%
2008-09 Cavaliers 28.4 7.2 384 53.0% 33.0%
2009-10 Cavaliers 29.7 8.6 387 54.5 32.8
2019-20 Lakers 25.3 10.2 425 55.0 30.8
2015-16 Cavaliers 25.3 6.8 282 55.1 30.5
2012-13 Heat 26.8 7.3 254 60.3 29.4

Just season.

Source: NBA.com

Over the course of his career, James’ usage rate has matched his superstar status. But it has fluctuated a bit depending on his role with a team. For example, in the 2008-09 and 2009-10 seasons, when the Cavaliers were at the top of the Eastern Conference, James’ average usage rate was just under 33 percent. But with its top-seeded teams winning it all, in 2013 and 2016, its usage rate was below 31 percent. Its rate was also below that mark this year, at 30.8 percent.

The dip in his usage level is also followed by James’ score and effective percentage of field goals. When his use was lower than his previous teams with top-seeded, he placed a lower point-per-game average and shot a higher effective field goal percentage. During his first two top-seeded years with the Cavaliers, he averaged more than 29 points per game with an effective field goal percentage below 54. James averaged 25.3 points per game this season, and his effective field goal percentage was equal to 55.

LeBron placed his highest effective percentage of field goals (60.3) of these top-seeded teams with the Heat in 2013. He attempted fewer three-pointers that season than he did in one of his other years at the top of his conference – and the third- worst of any season in his career. This year, on the contrary, he has taken the most 3-pointers of his career, even in this short season, and he was on pace to set a career high in made 3-point shots.

James’ supporting cast has certainly been a factor in its frequency of use. With both the Heat and Cavaliers teams winning championships, James was surrounded by other stars and a flint of deadly 3-point shooters. Having said that, the team could ask less of him about the offensive end.

This year, the Lakers added talent around James, and for the first time in his career, James is not the leading scorer of his team. All-Star big man Anthony Davis leads the Lakers this year, averaging 26.1 points per game, and the duo has produced at an all-time high.

While James’ role has changed with each of his top-seeded teams, at least one thing has not changed: the offensive production of the teams. Each LeBron-leading team that finished at the top of their conference also finished in the top half of the league in points per game and offensive rating. Each team ended its season with an effective ranking of field goals in the top five in the league. The Lakers ‘113.4 points per game and 111.7 offensive rating both rank as first among all of James’ top-seeded teams.

In addition to their offensive production, all five teams performed well at the defensive end. They have each finished the regular season among the top 10 in the NBA in defensive judgment and opponent points in the paint.

The Lakers fought offensively in the bubble, concluding the seeding games on the third-worst rank in offensive rating (104.5) and last in 3-point percentage (30.3). But despite the slow start in the bubble, the team has shown blitzes of its ability with wins over the West’s No. 2 seed Los Angeles Clippers and No. 3 seed Denver Nuggets. If the top-seeded team can build on those victories and return to his game level from before the break, James could end the season again with a championship.

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