Six weeks ago, there was no college league football season in the Big Ten. Now, this convention is best for putting multiple teams in the Ledge Football.
As it goes into its own kickoff weekend, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, the Big Ten has a 34% chance of getting multiple bids on the playoffs. It really outperforms SEC (20%), definitely ACC (3%) and Pack-12 (less than 1%).
Potential two-team combination for the big ten? It’s simple: Ohio State and Wisconsin, which make up 63% of the precedents where the Big Ten puts multiple teams in the playoffs.
The state of Ohio is clear. With quarterback Justin Fields at trial, the Bookies are the second-best team in college league football (behind Clemson), and the FPI says, and the odds to win in the Big Ten are favorite non-favorites.
The FPI on badgers is also very high, bringing back all their starters with their aggressive and defensive lines a year after being ranked in the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency. That’s a big reason why the model thinks the Badgers are the nation’s fourth-best team, even though they consider it almost inferior in touch to the game than Ohio State.
Put the two together and add to the fact that they are in opposing divisions and not a scheduled game against each other, and there are three different ways to get both reasonably: both teams undefeated in the conference championship game, one-defeat Wisconsin undefeated Ohio State, Or a losing Ohio state that hasn’t beaten Wisconsin before.
Both teams are at least 74% favorite in each of their games, and there is a 17% probability that both teams are undefeated in the Big Ten championship game. Still, it’s not the only way they can both make a choice.
Now the next possible combination is the state of Ohio-Penn. Teams can reach both play-offs: two teams from the same division, including the one who won the conference championship. For example, there is an 11% probability that Ohio State is undefeated and Penn State will only lose to Ohio State, although in those circumstances the 32% shot would have been the only choice for Nittany Lions. In India – Ohio State just losing Penn State – also works. And anyway, even the team that goes to win the conference can probably afford to leave a game already. At least 1% of teams have a chance to join Penn State and Wisconsin – which is exactly the way Ohio State-Wisconsin plays.
There are several other avenues – all three teams could get admission, or Ohio State could be paired with Indiana or Iowa – but the chances of them all merging are less than 1%.
So why is it likely to get second place on the Big Ten SEC?
In short because there is only one team left without a loss to the SEC. While either Alabama or Georgia suffered another defeat at this stage of the season, the other teams considered contenders in the preview – Florida and LSU – are already upset.
That loss doesn’t stop the SEC from coming in two teams – for example, it’s easy to imagine Florida beating unbeaten Alabama in a conference championship game and getting into both. But the fact that Florida has already lost losses makes the situation much more likely now. Gators have no more room for error. Originally the same was true for Georgia. Or Texas A&M. So the SEC can include multiple teams, but it is very unlikely that the convention will come to a championship game.
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