West African leaders arrived in Bamako on a high-risk mission aimed at calming Mali’s political crisis, which lasted for weeks and has raised concerns about further instability in a country facing multiple crises, including an escalating conflict.
Thursday’s visit by the presidents of Ghana, Ivory Coast, Niger, Nigeria and Senegal comes days after a mediation mission by the West African regional bloc, ECOWAS, failed to break the impasse.
Foreign leaders are expected to meet with Malian President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita and with key figures in the opposition coalition behind the protests, known as the June 5 Movement.
“It will be difficult to reject presidents who come to help restore peace and stability to their country,” said researcher Demba Moussa Dembele, president of the Dakar-based African Forum for Alternatives.
“The government and opposition would probably avoid being blamed if the mission failed,” Dembele said.
Mobilized by influential Muslim leader Ibrahim Dicko, tens of thousands of opposition protesters have taken to the streets of Bamako in recent weeks to demand the resignation of Keita.
Although dissatisfaction with the country’s economic problems, corruption, and worsening security situation have been dormant for a time, the spark of the current crisis was a decision by the Constitutional Court in April to nullify the results of parliamentary polls for 31 seats, in a move that saw candidates with Keita’s party re-elected.
The protests turned violent earlier this month when three days of clashes between security forces and protesters left 11 people dead. Several opposition leaders were also briefly detained.
A ECOWAS mission last week led by Goodluck Jonathan, former Nigerian President, He proposed establishing a government of national unity that would include members of the opposition and civil society groups. He also suggested, among others, the appointment of new judges to the Constitutional Court, which had already been “de facto” dissolved by Keita in an attempt to calm the unrest.
But the proposals were rejected by the Movement on June 5, and the protest leaders insisted that Keita should go and called for accountability for the killings in the June 10-12 protests.
“The gap is currently wide between the demands of the parties, especially those Movement June 5 and what the government is willing to grant, “he said Ousmane Diallo, Amnesty International researcher in West Africa.
Dembele said forcing Keita to resign could be seen as “unconstitutional”, warning that it could result in Mali’s international isolation.
In recent weeks, various Western diplomats and groups have also met with opposition leaders and government officials in an attempt to find a solution.
Although a level of calm has now been restored, the June 5 Movement promised not to call protests for 10 days, until the next Eid religious festival, “the situation remains tense and could extend beyond Bamako to Kati, Gao and Timbuktu, “Diallo said.
“Beyond the possibility of Mali falling further into the crisis if no middle ground is found between the parties, the credibility of ECOWAS mediation is also at stake.”
Regional leaders are eager to avoid further instability in Mali, a country of some 20 million people that has been affected by a conflict that started in 2012 and has since spread to neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger.
According to the United Nations, the attacks multiplied by five between 2016 and 2020, with 4,000 people killed in the three countries last year, up from about 770 in 2016. The fighting also forced hundreds of thousands of people to flee their homes and led to the closure of thousands of schools.
In central Mali, a multitude of armed groups have been fighting for control as they exploit the poverty of marginalized communities and increase tensions between ethnic groups.
The presence of thousands of foreign troops has failed to curb the violence, while allegations of abuse and extrajudicial killings by Malian forces have perpetuated deep-rooted distrust and enmity in parts of the country with little government presence.
“The [regional] security concerns are real, “Dembele said.
“If the crisis persists, Mali is likely to descend into chaos, which will affect the morale of the military and weaken its fight against terrorist groups. In that case, there is a risk that neighboring countries such as Senegal and Guinea will do so. be affected, which in turn will affect other countries. “
Diallo said that the visit of the five presidents, just a few days after the ECOWAS mediation mission, showed “how important it is for them to have stability in Bamako.”
“For a long time, Mali was perceived as the weak link with respect to the insurgency in the Sahel; there is an imperative to prevent the political crisis from negatively affecting regional security initiatives,” he added.
“The goal is to prevent a bad situation from getting worse.”
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